White House Rankings: The Democrats

A bi-weekly rating of the presidential candidates

National Journal - October 2, 2007

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling.

DEMOCRATIC RANKINGS

1. Hillary Clinton
New York senator Last Ranking: 1
Is this her false peak? Or maybe this is the real peak, and the rest of the campaign will be about protecting her lead -- playing "four corners" offense, if you will. Her presidential evasiveness may be a sign of overconfidence; it's inconceivable that she won't one day be pinned down on entitlement reform. Her laugh tick is getting noticed, but it's endearing in a way.

2. Barack Obama
Illinois senator Last Ranking: 2
Two days after a sickly performance in an important debate, he was greeted by 24,000 people in New York City. His candidacy is being sustained by a fat bankroll and intense curiosity, but his advisers need to admit that a movement is not yet... moving. He jabbed at Clinton's 1993 health reform secrecy, but he inexplicably refused to make a point of it, refused to make a contrast cleanly, and doesn't seem to feel the need to raise his volume above "subtle."

3. John Edwards
Former North Carolina senator Last Ranking: 3
Whoever is delivering these Fortress Investment Group oppo dumps (see South Carolina a few weeks back and the Des Moines Register the day after the debate), is landing real stomach punches against Edwards and setting up future attack ads via TV or mail. We think his campaign may have overreacted to the prospect of a poor fundraising quarter by pulling the trigger on public financing the day after a breakthrough debate performance. Everyone interprets the move as a sign of weakness, not strength.

4. Bill Richardson
New Mexico governor Last Ranking: 4
If he were truly a candidate with top-tier potential, we might be writing about how he's flailing all of a sudden with his blogger ad. The fact is he's flailing and if it weren't for his decent standing in Iowa polling, we'd drop him below Biden since Biden seems to be doing every else (other than fundraising) better than Richardson.

4. Joe Biden
Delaware senator Last Ranking: 5
In fact, maybe Biden has earned the right to be ranked ahead of Richardson. Though he's behind Richardson in Iowa, he's run circles around him (and many of the other candidates) in the debates. If there is a dark horse who could be taken seriously as a threat to the first tier, it's Biden now, not Richardson.

6. Christopher Dodd
Connecticut senator Last Ranking: 6
One of the bigger problems Dodd has is his speaking style. He's just got too much senator in his DNA; it's not fair but it's also not something that connects with voters who want change. They don't want someone who sounds too much like Washington, even though Dodd is probably closer on the issues to the Dem base than anyone (even Edwards).