Council for a Livable World Review of 2008 Senate Elections

StateIncumbent
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Oregon
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
Wyoming
Total
 Jeff Sessions (R)
Ted Stevens (R)
Mark Pryor (D)
Wayne Allard (R)
Joe Biden (D)
Saxby Chambliss (R)
Larry Craig (R)
Richard J. Durbin (D)
Tom Harkin (D)
Pat Roberts (R)
Mitch McConnell (R)
Mary Landrieu (D)
Susan M. Collins (R)
John Kerry (D)
Carl Levin (D)
Norm Coleman (R)
Thad Cochran (R)
Trent Lott (R)
Max Baucus (D)
Chuck Hagel (R)
John Sununu (R)
Frank R. Lautenberg (D)
Pete Domenici (R)
Elizabeth Dole (R)
Jim Inhofe (R)
Gordon H. Smith (R)
Jack Reed (D)
Lindsey Graham (R)
Tim Johnson (D)
Lamar Alexander (R)
John Cornyn (R)
John Warner (R)
Jay Rockefeller (D)
Mike Enzi (R)
John Barrusso (R)
23 Republicans
12 Democrats

Last updated September 23, 2008

Top Tier Senate Races

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Alaska
A wide-ranging public corruption inquiry by the Department of Justice and the FBI has led to the late July indictment of Sen. Ted Stevens' (R) related to a home remodeling project. Stevens’ son, ex-state Senate president Ben Stevens (R), has also been caught up in a wide-ranging corruption scandal. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) is running against Stevens and was already leading in the polls before the indictment. Begich also outraised Stevens in the last fundraising quarter ending June 30, although Stevens retains a cash-on-hand advantage. Stevens easily won an August 26 primary, but Begich is favored to win the seat. The Stevens trial began on September 22 and is scheduled to be completed before the election.

Colorado
Sen. Wayne Allard (R) is retiring at the end of his term. The race settled early: U.S. Rep Mark Udall (D) vs. ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R). Colorado is trending Democratic, and Udall is a narrow favorite. A number of revelations about Schaffer’s past work have caused him difficulties. Udall has a fundraising advantage, but not an overwhelming one. Polls show Udall in the lead, but by a narrow margin. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR MARK UDALL]

Louisiana
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is considered to be in trouble because of previous close contests and because so many of her African-American constituents fled the state as a result of Hurricane Katrina. At the end of August, State Treasurer John Kennedy (R) switched to the Republican Party, and formally filed to run for the Senate at the end of November. The two candidates raised about equal amounts of money in the last fundraising quarter ending June 30. Landrieu has maintained a steady but modest lead.

Maine
Rep. Tom Allen (D) is challenging incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. (R). Collins, a popular person who has developed an image as a moderate, has consistently maintained a polling and a fundraising lead. Both candidates have socked away large sums for t.v. advertising, and Allen may be able to take advantage of a strong Democratic tide to overtake Collins in the end. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR ALLEN]

Minnesota
Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is running for re-election, but has very strong competition from Al Franken (D). Franken won a strong Democratic-Farm-Labor endorsement at the state convention in June and a primary in September. Heading into the convention, Franken’s campaign had been beset by stories about unpaid taxes and his controversial past writings that he described as satire. Franken overcame these efforts by the GOP to torpedo his nomination, and now is about even with Coleman. Franken has raised $11.7 million, a tremendous achievement for a challenger; Coleman had raised more. Ex-appointed Sen. Dean Barkley is running as an independent. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR FRANKEN]

Mississippi
Sen. Trent Lott (R) unexpectedly announced his resignation from the Senate at the end of 2007. The Governor appointed U.S. Rep. Roger Wicker (R) to replace him. Wicker is being challenged by ex-Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). Polls show an expectedly close contest in a very conservative state. While Wicker has far out-raised Musgrove, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has stepped in with ads to help the Democrat.

New Hampshire
Sen. John Sununu (R) faces re-election in a state that turned heavily Democratic in 2006. Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who lost to Sununu in 2002, is running to overturn the last result. She raised more than Sununu in the second quarter of 2008, but he has a $5.1 to $2.2 million cash-on-hand lead. Shaheen has maintained a lead in the polls, although different polls show conflicting margins. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR SHAHEEN]

New Jersey
Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) easily turned back the Democratic primary challenge from Rep. Rob Andrews 59% - 35%. On the Republican side, former U.S. Representative and former Senate candidate Richard Zimmer won the Republican nomination with 46% of the vote to 40% for State Senator Joseph Pennacchio. Lautenberg is the the overwhelming favorite in the fall campaign. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR LAUTENBERG]

New Mexico
U.S. Representative Steve Pearce narrowly defeated U.S. Representative Heather Wilson 52% - 48% in the New Mexico Republican Senate primary for Sen. Pete Domenici’s (R) seat. Domenici, who stayed neutral through most of the contest, gave Wilson a last minute endorsement, but it was not enough for her to pull out a victory. Pearce faces U.S. Representative Tom Udall in the general election. Udall was unopposed in the Democratic primary and polls show him substantially ahead of Pearce. Udall also had a $2.9 million to $532,000 cash-on-hand lead as of June 30. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR TOM UDALL]

Oregon
Sen. Gordon Smith (R) is vulnerable and has a low approval rating. Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley won the May 20 primary against activist/ex-DoJ environmental attorney Steve Novick (D) in a close contest, and faces Smith in the general election. Former National Endowment for the Arts Chairman John Frohnmayer, who had announced an independent race for Senate and might have hurt Merkley, dropped out in June. Polls show Merkley pulling even with Smith and he raised more than Smith in the fundraising quarter ending June 30, 2008. However, Smith maintains a $4.5 million to $569,000 fundraising lead. He has used that advantage to run some Willie Horton-style negative ads. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is advertising heavily for Merkley. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR MERKLEY]

Virginia
Sen. John Warner (R) is not running again. The formerly very red state has been moving toward purple. Ex-Governor Mark Warner (D) is running, and is the overwhelming favorite. Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)) narrowly won the Republican nomination at a convention held at the end of May. Early polling showed Warner far out in front, and his fundraising has been going great. Warner had $5.1 million in the bank at the end of June while Gilmore had only $117,000.

Potentially close contests

Georgia
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) , who ran a highly controversial campaign to upset Sen. Max Cleland (D) in 2002, may yet have a tough fight on his hands. In a July 15 primary, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (D) and ex-state representative Jim Martin (D) finished with 40% and 34% respectively. On August 5, Martin overwhelmed Jones 60% - 40% in a runoff, but faces long odds in the fall. Still recent polling shows that Martin has a shot at winning. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR MARTIN]

Kansas
Sen. Pat Roberts (R) has drawn a major opponent, former U.S. Rep. Jim Slattery (D). Slattery hopes to capitalize on the mood for change in the state and Roberts failure as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee to search for problems with pre-Iraq war intelligence. Roberts has run negative ads against Slattery, suggesting that he is nervous. On August 5, Slattery defeated Democratic primary opponent against Lee Jones 69% - 31%.

Kentucky
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is being attacked in the state for his pro-war stance. Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D), who previously ran for Governor, won a May 20 Democratic primary against a number of opponents, and may give McConnell a close contest. McConnell has maintained a huge fundraising lead and a double digit lead in the polls, but Lunsford can put more of his own money into the contest.

Nebraska
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) is retiring at the end of his term. Former Agriculture Sec./ex-Gov. Mike Johanns (R) is the clear favorite. Rancher Scott Kleeb (D), who lost a House race in 2006, easily beat ex-Republican Nebraska businessman Anthony Raimondo (D) in the May 13 primary 69% - 25%. Kleeb surprised many by slightly outraising Johann’s in the fundraising quarter ending June 30, but Johanns maintains a 3 – 1 cash-on-hand advantage.

North Carolina
State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) easily bested businessman Jim Neal (D) and others in a May 6 primary in the contest against incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). Polls show that Dole is ahead but is vulnerable. While Dole maintains a more than 2 – 1 cash-on-hand lead, Hagan almost equaled Dole’s fundraising in the quarter ending June 30. Polls show a tight contest.

Texas
Sen. John Cornyn (R) is running for re-election in a very Republican state. Afghanistan war veteran state Rep. Rick Noriega (D) won the Democratic primary. Some polls show a potentially close contest. However, Cornyn has a huge 10 - 1 fundraising advantage. Noriega, who serves in the National Guard, had clean-up duty after Hurricane Ike.

Other Democratic seats

Arkansas
Sen. Mark Pryor (D) will run for re-election unopposed by a major party candidate.

Delaware
Sen. Joseph Biden (D) will win in a walk against Christine O'Donnell (R). [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED BIDEN]

Illinois
Dick Durbin (D) is secure against physician Steve Sauerberg (R). [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED DURBIN]

Iowa
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) has faced and turned back previous serious challenges. This time, he faces a lesser contest from political little known businessman Christopher Reed, who squeaked out a 413-vote win over former state legislator George Eichhorn in the June 3 primary to claim the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED HARKIN]

Massachusetts
Sen. John Kerry (D), will romp to re-election against ex-House candidate Jeff Beatty (R). Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Jim Ogonowski (R), who ran a close second to Rep. Niki Tsongas in an October 2007 special election, failed to file enough signatures to get on the ballot. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED KERRY]

Michigan
Sen. Carl Levin (D), is in a strong position for re-election against state representative Jack Hoogendyk (R). [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED LEVIN]

Montana
85 year-old Republican Butte attorney Bob Kelleher, who has run for everything from governor to president, pulled an upset in the June 3 primary by beating five other candidates for the nomination to challenge incumbent Sen. Max Baucus (D) this fall. Baucus is secure. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED BAUCUS]

Rhode Island
Sen. Jack Reed (D) is safe against casino pit boss Robert Tingle (R). [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED REED]

South Dakota
Third-term state legislator Joel Dykstra easily won the June 3 Republican primary to face incumbent Sen. Tim Johnson (D), winning about 66% of the vote. Johnson returned to work in September 2007 after a long illness, and has not missed a vote since then. While Johnson has won two elections to the Senate by very narrow margins, he has avoided a top tier challenger this time. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR JOHNSON]

Other Republican seats

West Virginia
Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) is secure against ex-state senator Jay Wolfe (R). [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED ROCKEFELLER]

Alabama
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) is safe against state senator Vivian Davis Figures (D), who easily won the June 3 Democratic primary with 64% of the vote.

Georgia
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) does not appear to have any serious re-election problem. In a July 15 primary, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (D) and ex-state representative Jim Martin (D) finished with 40% and 34% respectively. On August 5, Martin overwhelmed Jones 60% - 40% in a runoff, but faces long odds in the fall.

Idaho
Sen. Larry Craig (R), after pleading guilty in August after an incident in the Minneapolis airport, announced that he will stay in his seat until his term ends, and then step down. Lieutenance Governor Jim Risch (R) is the leading Republican candidate. The Democratic nominee is '06 LG nominee/ex-Rep. Larry LaRocco (D).

Mississippi
Sen. Thad Cochran (R) is a shoo-in against ex-state Rep. Erik Fleming (D).

Oklahoma
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) is secure. State Senator Andrew Rice (D) is running a good race, but the state makes it very difficult for any Democrat.

South Carolina
Some state Republicans have been angry with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) but he won a GOP primary with 67% of the vote and should easily beat attorney Michael Cone (D).

Tennessee
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) is in good political shape. He faces ex-Tennessee Democratic chair Bob Tuke (D), who won a primary on August 7.

Wyoming (first seat)
Sen. Mike Enzi (R), after hesitating, is running for re-election and should have no problem getting re-elected in a heavily Republican state.

Wyoming (second seat)
After the death of Sen. Craig Thomas (R), Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) selected '96 candidate/state Sen. John Barrasso (R) as the new Senator. Barrasso will serve until a special election in 2008, after which time the winner of the election will serve the remainder of Thomas' term until 2012. He is being challenged by Casper City Councilor Keith Goodenough (D).