An Early Look at 2020 Senate Elections

By John Isaacs

Alabama – The most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in 2020 is Sen. Doug Jones (D). In 2017, Jones won a stunning upset victory 50%-48% over former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) in this usually solid Republican state. There is no clear Republican nominee, but Jones is likely to be labeled an underdog. Moore is threatening to run again. There are two announced Republican candidates – U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville (R). In the meantime, state Rep. John Rogers (D), who has represented the Birmingham suburbs for almost 40 years, will run against Jones in a primary.

Arizona – Martha McSally (R), after losing a close election in 2018 to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) by 50%-48%, was appointed to take the seat of late Senator John McCain (R), and has to run again in 2020. Mark Kelly (D), astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, is her challenger.

Colorado – Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the 2020 election. In 2018, Democrats won the governorship in Colorado and picked up one House seat, and Hillary Clinton carried the state in 2016. A host of Democrats are running, including former diplomat Dan Baer (D), former Colorado House Majority Leader Alice Madden, former state Sen. (and 2018 gubernatorial candidate) Mike Johnston, former state House Speaker (and 2014 congressional candidate) Andrew Romanoff and former U.S. Attorney John Walsh.

Georgia – The state has been moving towards a purple status; Stacey Abrams (D) lost her 2018 race for governor in a very close race by only 50%-49%, but declined entreaties to run for Senate. Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (D) is running.

Iowa – Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is running for reelection. National Democrats, including the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Emily’s List, appear to be rallying around real estate executive and former congressional candidate Theresa Greenfield (D). However, there are other candidates in the race, including  insurance company owner Eddie Mauro, and still others considering. Ernst is considered the favorite.

Kansas –Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts (R) will retire after this term, his fourth. The state has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, and although a Democrat captured the governorship in 2018, Republicans are heavily favored to hold the seat. A number of Republicans are considering the race, with some high-level Republicans urging Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run.

Kentucky – Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) surmounted a tough challenge in 2014, 56%-41%. But he could face a difficult election next year because of his close connection to President Trump and his lukewarm ratings in the state. However, the Majority Leader is a strong campaigner who has shown a tendency to raise vast amounts of money.

Maine – Sen. Susan Collins (R) has been a highly popular incumbent in the state, but may have alienated some moderate voters with recent votes. In 2018, Democrats picked up the governorship from a retiring Republican and won both House seats in the state.

Massachusetts – If there is any challenge to incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey, it is likely to come in a Democratic primary. Some pundits theorize that Markey, a long-time leader on nuclear weapons issues, could be vulnerable. Labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan (D) has announced a primary challenge.

Michigan – Army veteran John James (R), lost in 2018 to Sen. Debbie Stabenow, is challenging Democratic incumbent Gary Peters. James lost by a fairly close 52%-46 to Stabnow, and raised $12 million for his race.

Minnesota – Senator Tina Smith (D), appointed to replace Sen. Al Franken, won in 2018 by 53%-42% over former state senator Karen Housley for the last two years of Franken’s term. Smith faces another election in 2020 for a full six-year term, and could get another major challenge.

Mississippi – Democrat Mike Espy, a former Congressman and Secretary of Agriculture, who held Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith to a 54%-46% win for the last two years of Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R) seat, has filed to run against her again. Hyde-Smith could also face a Republican challenger.

New Mexico – Sen. Tom Udall (D) has announced his retirement at the end of this term. While Democrats have dominated elections in recent years, Republicans are still competitive.  Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) and Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) are likely to face off for the Democratic nomination.

North Carolina – Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is being primaried by businessman Garland Tucker, with some Republican groups dissatisfied with the incumbent’s record and his changing positions.

South Carolina – Senator Lindsey Graham (R) has gone from Trump opponent in 2016 to Trump critic to Trump ally. His major threat to re-election almost surely comes from a Republican primary. In 2014, Graham took only 56% of the primary vote against six opponents. However,  Democrats are rallying around former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jaime Harrison, also former top aide to Rep. Jim Clyburn (D).

Tennessee –Tennessee Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, who has served since 2003, has announced his retirement at the end of this term. His replacement is likely to be a Republican; In 2018, Democrats thought they had a chance to win a Senate seat in this state, but ex-governor Phil Bredesen (D) won only 44% of the vote against then Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R). Attorney and Iraq War Army veteran James Mackler (D), who ran in 2018 before dropping out when Bredesen entered the race, has said he will run.

Texas – Republican Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn will be the favorite to be re-elected.  In late April, Air Force veteran MJ Hegar (D), who lost a close 51%-48% House race in TX-31, announced she will run.

Wyoming – Sen. Michael Enzi (R-WY) has announced his retirement at the end of this term. Rep. Liz Cheney (R) would be favored to take the seat if she gives up her leadership position in the House. Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis is also considering running.

 

33 Senators Up for Election in 2020

Democrats – 12

Booker, Cory A. (D-NJ)

Coons, Christopher A. (D-DE)

Durbin, Richard J. (D-IL)

Jones, Doug (D-AL)

Markey, Edward J. (D-MA)

Merkley, Jeff (D-OR)

Peters, Gary C. (D-MI)

Reed, Jack (D-RI)

Shaheen, Jeanne (D-NH)

Smith, Tina (D-MN)

Udall, Tom (D-NM) – retiring

Warner, Mark R. (D-VA)

 

Republicans – 22

Alexander, Lamar (R-TN) – retiring

Capito, Shelley Moore (R-WV)

Cassidy, Bill (R-LA)

Collins, Susan M. (R-ME)

Cornyn, John (R-TX)

Cotton, Tom (R-AR)

Daines, Steve (R-MT)

Enzi, Michael B. (R-WY) – retiring

Ernst, Joni (R-IA)

Gardner, Cory (R-CO)

Graham, Lindsey (R-SC)

Hyde-Smith, Cindy (R-MS)

Inhofe, James M. (R-OK)

McConnell, Mitch (R-KY)

McSally, Martha (R-AZ)

Perdue, David (R-GA)

Risch, James E. (R-ID)

Roberts, Pat (R-KS) – retiring

Rounds, Mike (R-SD)

Sasse, Ben (R-NE)

Sullivan, Dan (R-AK)

Tillis, Thom (R-NC)