Latest predictions on control of the Senate next year (October 16, 2020):
Cook Report, Larry Sabato and Daily Kos all agree that Democrats will take the Senate.
Cook Report: 3 Weeks Out, 3 Rating Changes Toward Dems Add To a Growing Edge in Battle for Senate Control. Dems are now clear favorite to flip control of the Senate. Most GOP put Dem gains 3 to 7 seats: median agreement perhaps a 51-49 Dem majority.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Senate elections increasingly tied to presidential voting. An analysis of polling data suggest that Dems are likely to win net gain of between 1 & 8 seats; most likely result net gain of 5 seats, enough for small Senate majority.
Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast: We’re solidifying around a five-seat Democratic net gain and a 52-48 majority. Polls in NC Senate race that have come out since scandal story broke have shown almost no change in the race.
New Hampshire: Corky Messner, a lawyer, won the Republican primary to face Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Massachusetts: Sen. Edward Markey (D) easily turned back the primary challenge from Rep. Joseph Kennedy III (D) 55%-45%. Kansas: Republicans think they dodged a bullet when Kris Kobach (R) lost the primary to Rep. Roger Marshall (R), but polls show Barbara Bollier (D) competitive against Marshall.
Alaska: Orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, an independent who is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) and has unified the Democratic Party behind his campaign. In late April, Sabato’s Crystal Ball upgraded the race from Sure Republican to Likely Republican.
Alabama – The most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in 2020 is Sen. Doug Jones (D). In 2017, Jones won a stunning upset victory 50%-48% over former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) in this usually solid Republican state. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) comeback attempt was smacked down by Tommy Tuberville (R), who is now favored over Sen. Doug Jones (D), but don’t count out Jones just yet.
Arizona – Martha McSally (R), after losing a close election in 2018 to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) by 50%-48%, was appointed to take the seat of late Sen. John McCain (R), and has to run again in 2020. Mark Kelly (D), astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, is her challenger. Kelly is leading in fundraising and the polls.
Colorado – Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the 2020 election. In 2018, Democrats won the governorship in Colorado and picked up one House seat, and Hillary Clinton carried the state in 2016. In August, former Governor John Hickenlooper dropped his candidacy for President and announced he will run for this Senate seat. Hickenlooper was hurt by self-inflicted wounds, but survived the primary 59%-41%. This remains one of the best opportunities for a Democratic pickup.
Georgia A – The state has been moving towards a purple status; Stacey Abrams (D) lost her 2018 race for governor in a very close contest by only 50%-49%. On June 9, former House candidate Jon Ossoff (D) defeated two major foes for the Democratic nomination in a June 9 primary and avoided an August 11 runoff. Polls show a close general election against Sen. Davie Purdue (R).
Georgia B – Kelly Loeffler (R), a businesswoman and co-owner of the Atlanta Dream in the Women’s National Basketball Association, has been named Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R) replacement by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. Loeffler will hold the seat until the November 2020 special election, creating two elections then. She is challenged by Rep. Doug Collins (R), Matt Lieberman (D), and Rev. Dr. Raphael Warnock (D) in an open primary. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote in November, there will be a runoff vote in January, which could mean Senate control is in doubt long after the November election.
Iowa – Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is running for reelection. National Democrats, including the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Emily’s List, have rallied around real estate executive and former congressional candidate Theresa Greenfield (D), who won her June 2 primary handily. Ernst is considered a narrow favorite.
Kansas –Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) will retire after this term, his fourth. The state has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, and although a Democrat captured the governorship in 2018, Republicans had been favored to hold the seat. Prospects for the Democratic candidate state senator Barbara Bollier, a former Republican, have picked up. Her opponent is U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall (R) after a very bitter Republican primary.
Kentucky – Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) surmounted a tough challenge in 2014, 56%-41%. But he is facing a difficult election because of his close connection to President Trump and his lukewarm ratings in the state. . Former fighter pilot and House candidate Amy McGrath (D) had key endorsements, a bucketful of money and the momentum, until a few weeks before the primary when Democratic opponent Charles Booker suddenly caught fire, with newspaper backing, his own key endorsements and national attention. McGrath survived, but barely 45%-43%. She was wounded by the primary, but has the resources and time to make it a close general election.
Louisiana – In July, Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins launched a campaign against Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, and was immediately endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Maine – Sen. Susan Collins (R) has been a highly popular incumbent in the state, but alienated many moderate voters with some votes, particularly to confirm Judge Kavanaugh. In 2018, Democrats picked up the governorship from a retiring Republican and won both House seats in the state. In late June, state House Speaker Sara Gideon’s jumped into the race, and immediately was endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List. Gideon easily won her primary, has produced strong fundraising numbers and is now in a toss up race.
Massachusetts – Sen. Edward Markey (D) easily turned back the primary challenge from Rep. Joseph Kennedy III (D) 55%-45%.
Michigan – Army veteran John James (R), who lost in 2018 to Sen. Debbie Stabenow, is challenging Democratic incumbent Gary Peters. James lost by a fairly close 52%-46% to Stabnow, and raised $12 million for his race. Peters is one of only two Democratic incumbents at all vulnerable, but he appears to have surged into a solid although not unbeatable lead.
Minnesota – Sen. Tina Smith (D), appointed to replace Sen. Al Franken, won in 2018 by 53%-42% over former state senator Karen Housley for the last two years of Franken’s term. Smith faces another election this year for a full six-year term. Jason Lewis, who served as U.S. representative for one term before being ousted by Rep. Angie Craig in 2018, is running against Sen. Smith.
Mississippi – Democrat Mike Espy, a former Congressman and Secretary of Agriculture, who held Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith to a 54%-46% win for the last two years of Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R) seat, is running against her again. Hyde-Smith is the overwhelming favorite.
Montana: In March 2020, popular Gov. Steve Bullock (D) made a late entry into the contest. Incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R) is still favored, but this is likely to be a close contest, with some polls showing Bullock in the lead.
New Hampshire: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will is the overwhelming favorite over lawyer Corky Messner (R), who won a September primary.
New Mexico – Sen. Tom Udall (D) has announced his retirement at the end of this term. While Democrats have dominated elections in recent years, Republicans are still competitive. Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) is the Democratic candidate and the clear favorite.
North Carolina – Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who alienated President Trump and now is his best friend, is running for re-election. Former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham won the contested Democratic primary and is running even in polls and fundraising.
South Carolina – Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) has gone from Trump opponent in 2016 to Trump critic to Trump ally. Democrats have rallied around former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jaime Harrison, former top aide to Rep. Jim Clyburn (D). The Cook Report has upgraded Harrison’s chances after a terrific fundraising first quarter of 2020 and some polls show a close race
Tennessee –Tennessee Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, who has served since 2003, announced his retirement at the end of this term. His replacement is likely to be a Republican; In 2018, Democrats thought they had a chance to win a Senate seat in this state, but ex-governor Phil Bredesen (D) won only 44% of the vote against then-Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R). Attorney and Iraq War Army veteran James Mackler (D), who ran in 2018 before dropping out when Bredesen entered the race, is running. Former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty is favored to win the Republican nomination and the election.
Texas – Republican Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn is the clear favorite to be re-elected. Air Force veteran MJ Hegar (D), who lost a close 51%-48% House race in TX-31 in 2018, won her runoff election with 52% of the vote against Royce West. She now faces the formidable opponent in Sen. John Cornyn (R).
Wyoming – Sen. Michael Enzi (R-WY) announced his retirement at the end of this term. Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis is running and will win the seat. Rep. Liz Cheney (R), who would have been major opposition, declined run.
33 Senators Up for Election in 2020
Democrats – 12
Booker, Cory A. (D-NJ)
Coons, Christopher A. (D-DE)
Durbin, Richard J. (D-IL)
Jones, Doug (D-AL)
Markey, Edward J. (D-MA)
Merkley, Jeff (D-OR)
Peters, Gary C. (D-MI)
Reed, Jack (D-RI)
Shaheen, Jeanne (D-NH)
Smith, Tina (D-MN)
Udall, Tom (D-NM) – retiring
Warner, Mark R. (D-VA)
Republicans – 23
Alexander, Lamar (R-TN)
Capito, Shelley Moore (R-WV)
Cassidy, Bill (R-LA)
Collins, Susan M. (R-ME)
Cornyn, John (R-TX)
Cotton, Tom (R-AR)
Daines, Steve (R-MT)
Enzi, Michael B. (R-WY) – retiring
Ernst, Joni (R-IA)
Gardner, Cory (R-CO)
Graham, Lindsey (R-SC)
Hyde-Smith, Cindy (R-MS)
Inhofe, James M. (R-OK)
Loeffler, Kelly (R) (named to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson (R)
McConnell, Mitch (R-KY)
McSally, Martha (R-AZ)
Perdue, David (R-GA)
Risch, James E. (R-ID)
Roberts, Pat (R-KS) – retiring
Rounds, Mike (R-SD)
Sasse, Ben (R-NE)
Sullivan, Dan (R-AK)
Tillis, Thom (R-NC)