Council for a Livable World

Political action to reduce nuclear threats

  • Elections
    • Senate Victories
    • House Victories
    • Political Analysis
    • Who We’ve Helped Elect
  • Legislation
    • Key National Security Legislation
    • National Security Legislative Calendar
    • Legislative Achievements
  • Take Action
    • Avoiding Oppenheimer’s Nuclear Nightmare in Our Current Reality
    • Twin Threats: Climate Change and Nuclear War
    • Issues
    • Join Our Email List
    • Become a Member
  • About
    • Staff
    • Press
    • Newsletter
    • Boards & Experts
    • Jobs & Internships
    • Financials and Annual Reports
    • Contact Us
  • Donate
  • Search
You are here: Home / Blog / 538

March 27, 2014

538

The widely respected Nate Silver, who has been on target with most of his election predictions and analysis, has come out with his first official 538 scrutiny of the 2014 elections.

The report, which can be found here, suggests that the GOP is a slight favorite to capture the Senate in November.

I have no problem with the prediction. And Silver is a brilliant analyst.

But some of his race-by-race predictions are seriously out of whack.

Take the Kentucky Senate race. Polls show a tight race between Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) and Mitch McConnell (R). The Cook political report calls the race a toss-up. So would I.

Yet Nate Silver gives McConnell a 75% chance of winning the contest.

That’s 3-1 odds. I would love to take that bet and put money on Grimes.

Similarly, in Georgia, where Michelle Nunn (D) has put together a great campaign, Silver gives her a 30% chance to win. Again, Cook rates it a toss-up. Again, someone wants to give me more than 2-1 odds, I will bet money on it. At least a dollar

In Virginia, Silver gives former GOP Chairman Ed Gillespie is given a 5% chance to end out on top.

I think that Sen. Mark Warner (D) is going to win that race, but come on, 20-1? I don’t think that Gillespie would have run with those numbers.

So Nate Silver is a genius. But not a perfect one.

Nor are his numbers perfect.

Posted in: Blog

Recent Posts

  • An Early Look at the 2026 Senate Elections May 9, 2025
  • Shawn Rostker: ‘Quiet diplomacy is likely happening, even if the public posture is more restrained’ May 7, 2025
  • Council: Front and Center: April 21, 2025 April 21, 2025
  • Council: Front and Center: March 22, 2025 March 22, 2025
  • STATEMENT ON TRUMP-ZELENSKYY OVAL OFFICE MEETING February 28, 2025
Council for a Livable World logo

820 1st Street NE, Suite LL-180
Washington, D.C. 20002
Phone: 202.543.4100

Elections

  • Meet The Candidates
  • Senate Candidates
  • House Candidates
  • Who We’ve Helped Elect

Legislation

  • Key National Security Legislation
  • National Security Legislative Calendar
  • Legislative Achievements

Take Action

  • Issues
  • Join Our Email List
  • Become a Member

About

  • History & Mission
  • Staff
  • Press
  • Newsletter
  • Boards & Experts
  • Jobs & Internships
  • Financials and Annual Reports
  • Contact Us
  • Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Instagram
  • Facebook

© 2025 Council for a Livable World
Privacy Policy