By Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-six-states-that-could-decide-the-presidency-and-the-senate/2011/06/09/AGI67BPH_blog.html
Of the 10 Senate races most likely to switch parties in the 2012 election, six of them are in states likely to be targeted by the two national parties at the presidential level.
Those six states — New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin and Virginia — could well then decide not only the identity of the next president but also which party controls the Senate in 2013.
In 2008, President Obama carried five of the six, losing only Missouri — and that narrowly.
But in the intervening three years, Republicans have captured the governorships of New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia as well as 13 U.S. House seats in those six states combined.
The question then for 2012 is whether the political atmospherics will more closely resemble 2008 (good for Democrats) or 2010 (good for Republicans).
Of the 10 Senate races most likely to switch parties in the 2012 election, six of them are in states likely to be targeted by the two national parties at the presidential level.
Those six states — New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin and Virginia — could well then decide not only the identity of the next president but also which party controls the Senate in 2013.
In 2008, President Obama carried five of the six, losing only Missouri — and that narrowly.
But in the intervening three years, Republicans have captured the governorships of New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia as well as 13 U.S. House seats in those six states combined.
The question then for 2012 is whether the political atmospherics will more closely resemble 2008 (good for Democrats) or 2010 (good for Republicans).
To be clear, Senate races tend to be less influenced than House races by top of the ticket dynamics. But, in each of these six states, the Senate contests are widely expected to be very close — meaning that a slight movement at the margins could be the difference between winning and losing.
As always, the number one ranked race on the Line is considered the most likely to switch parties in 2010. Kudos or critiques of our rankings? The comments section awaits.
To the Line!
Coming off the Line: Florida
Coming onto the Line: Wisconsin
10. New Mexico (Democratic controlled): The symmetry of the two primaries here is striking. Both Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) and former congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) are seen as strong candidates to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D), but both face Hispanic candidates who hold statewide office — in a plurality Latino state. The jury is still out on just how formidable state Auditor Hector Balderas (D) and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) will be, but if they can run good campaigns, that will make both primaries very interesting. Case in point: Wilson has been extremely aggressive in trying to define Sanchez from day one. Republicans think she’s running a strong campaign, but winning the primary with such a moderate record will be tough (as she found out in her 2008 Senate primary loss) and this is a Democratic-leaning state. (Previous ranking: 10)
9. Ohio (D): At the start of the 2012 cycle, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) was at or near the top of Republicans’ target lists. But six months in, Brown has slipped out of the GOP’s marquee pickup chances although, given the swing nature of the Buckeye State and his largely liberal record, he is still likely to face a real fight next fall. The biggest problem so far for Republicans has been recruiting a top tier candidate. Newly elected state Treasurer Josh Mandel appears likely to be the establishment pick but former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is also likely to run. (Previous ranking: 7)
8. Massachusetts (Republican-controlled): We’re still waiting for the Democratic field to shake out here. There have been whispers about Obama adviser Elizabeth Warren running for the seat, but for now it’s Newton Mayor Setti Warren, City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, and activist Bob Massie in the race. We know it’s early, but with the huge sums of money that popular Sen. Scott Brown (R) is raising, Democrats would be best served to get their primary figured out early on. This will be a tough state for Brown in a presidential year but the lack of direction in the Democratic field keeps this down on the Line for now. (Previous ranking: 8)
7. Wisconsin (Democratic-controlled): Former senator Russ Feingold (D) is dipping his toe in the water and says he may run for either retiring Sen. Herb Kohl’s (D) open Senate seat or in the potential recall of Gov. Scott Walker (R). A decision is due by Labor Day, but we’ve reported before that Wisconsin Democrats are skeptical that he will jump right back into politics. Even if Feingold does run, though, we would expect a competitive race, since he has never taken more than 55 percent of the vote statewide. If he doesn’t run, the focus on the Democratic side will be on Reps. Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin. On the GOP side, former governor Tommy Thompson looks likely to be in, but nothing is official, and he could well face a significant primary. (Previous ranking: N/A)
6. Nevada (R): The complete collapse of former Sen. John Ensign’s (R) political career — the final chapter came when he resigned from office in late April — opened the door for Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval to appoint Dean Heller to the Senate. It remains to be seen whether Heller’s newfound status is a good thing or a bad one given the anti-incumbent mentality that pervaded the country in the 2010 election. For Democrats, Rep. Shelley Berkley is the favorite but self financing businessman Byron Georgiou is threatening to make the primary race more competitive than most D.C. party strategists would like.(Previous ranking: 6)
5. Missouri (D): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is running in a very tough state — the one bona fide swing state that President Obama lost in 2008. Obama is on the ballot again and has poor numbers in Missouri. McCaskill’s saving grace could be an aimless GOP primary field in which none of the candidates are seen as terribly strong. Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Todd Akin are both in the race, and businessman John Brunner is expected to run. Republicans are hoping that at least one of them will have what it takes to defeat an incumbent. But the jury’s out. (Previous ranking: 4)
4. Virginia (D): No race is likely to change less than this battle of the political titans between former Govs. Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). Both men are well known in Commonwealth and are proven fundraisers. The top of the ticket dynamic — President Obama is promising an aggressive campaign in the state — will matter. This is going to be a very close race. (Previous ranking: 5)
3. Montana (D): There’s an interesting dynamic here when it comes to Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget. While Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) was one of four Republicans in the House to vote against it, Sen. Jon Tester (D) has said that it’s a good place to start although he did eventually vote against it. If Democrats are hoping to use the GOP’s Medicare proposal against Republicans in the 2012 elections, this will be the one state where that strategy will be tough to implement. Republicans will need this state if they are going to retake the majority. Rehberg’s second quarter fundraising report, due July 15, will give us a good idea at how formidable he will be. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Nebraska (D): The Republican field to face Sen. Ben Nelson (D) continues to grow with state Sen. Deb Fischer expected to join state Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg in the primary fight. Bruning is regarded as the race’s frontunner although Stenberg is positioning himself as the race’s lone conservative. Nelson is clearly vulnerable in a state that went for Arizona Sen. John McCain by 15 points in 2008. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. North Dakota (D): Rep. Rick Berg’s (R) entrance into the race establishes him as a heavy favorite to replace retiring Sen. Kent Conrad (D) next fall. It’s hard to see Democrats spending much time — or money — to hold this seat. (Previous ranking: 1)
