Two incumbents (one Senate and one Governor) are in serious trouble in the 2010 Senate contests.
In Florida, the hard right conservatives who recently managed to throw an upstate New York Republican seat to the Democrats by supporting a third party candidate are at it again. The popular Governor now running for Senate, Charlie Crist (R-FL), is opposed by Club for Growth and other conservative activists who think he is too moderate. Crist’s Republican opponent, Marco Rubio (R-FL), the former House speaker, has begun closing the gap in the polls although not in fundraising. Rubio is also winning Republican straw polls.
In Connecticut, incumbent Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) is either running virtually even or behind any of five Republican opponents, including 11 points behind former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT).Ralph Nader, who managed to screw up the Al Gore for President campaign in 2000, is thinking of running for Senate in Connecticut as an independent (beware of any potential candidate who talks of all the people urging him to run). Dodd’s main hope is that the Republicans destroy each other in a primary.
How many other incumbents will be in trouble next year, or will improved economic conditions and an enacted health care bill create a rising tide for many of these incumbents.,