The Bottom Line Up Front
The best opportunity to pressure Republicans to break with Trump and potentially create a check on the President’s agenda: Congressional elections in November 2026. While it is doubtful that Democrats can win a Senate majority, a House majority is a distinct possibility.
State of Play
President Donald Trump’s reshaping of the U.S. government and standing in the world has occurred at a breathtaking speed. Unified party control in Congress and unwavering support from congressional leaders mean that the majority of the administration’s destruction has gone unchecked. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has surprised many critics. To this point he has successfully shepherded President Trump’s agenda despite major splits within the Republican caucus and razor-thin margins in the House of Representatives. Ultimately, most Republicans are reluctant to oppose the President because of the fear of primary challenges and attacks by MAGA supporters.
What Others Are Saying
Longtime University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato predicts that “Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so . . . Typically in midterms, the non-presidential party improves both their share of seats and share of the popular House vote compared to the previous election.”
The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter provides some additional insight about the overall situation in the House arguing that “the playing field for Congress is very narrow. The good news for Democrats is that they only need to net three seats to gain control of the House. In 2018, they needed to net over 20 seats.”
The Reality About House Elections
The harsh reality is that the United States continues to have a gerrymandering problem. What we said in 2023 still holds today:
“There are now fewer competitive districts than at any point in over half a century… The process of gerrymandering is used by both Republicans and Democrats and single-party controlled states are where most of the drastic district border changes occur… The redistricting that took effect in 2022 produced a 12% decline of Republican competitive seats in Republican single-party controlled states and from 12% to 6% in Democratic single-party states.”
If Democrats want to take control of the House, they will need to effectively tie House Republicans to decisions the President is making. The Democratic Party has had difficulty recovering from the 2024 elections and finding the best way to try to block the Republican agenda. But one consistent step Democratic Members of Congress have undertaken is forcing Republicans to vote for or against cuts in Medicaid, school lunches, job cutbacks, vaccines, killing federal agencies and other generally unpopular Trump administration policies.
Races We Are Watching
It is much too early to have a clear idea about the key House races. These contests are slower to develop than the higher-profile Senate races. Many candidates will wait until 2026 to decide whether to run. It will not be clear for many months who will win the many contests. But one early tipoff are House races that leading political analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report label toss ups or only leaning in one direction at this early stage.
Vulnerable House Republican Incumbents
- David Schweikert (AZ-01)
- Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
- David Valadao (CA-22)
- Young Kim (CA-40)
- Ken Calvert (CA-41)
- Gabe Evans (CO-08)
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01)
- Zach Nunn (IA-03)
- Tom Barrett (MI-07)
- Don Bacon (NE-02)
- Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
- Mike Lawler (NY-17)
- Ryan Mackenzie (PA-07)
- Rob Bresnahan (PA-08)
- Scott Perry (PA-10)
- Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
- Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)
Vulnerable House Democratic Incumbents
- Adam Gray (CA-13)
- Derek Tran (CA-45)
- Jared Golden (ME-02)
- Don Davis (NC-01)
- Gabe Vasquez (NM-02)
- Laura Gillen (NY-04)*
- Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)
- Emilia Sykes (OH-13)
- Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
- Vincente Gonzalez (TX-34)
- Marie Glusenkamp Perez (WA-03)
*endorsed by Council for a Livable World in 2024
Council for a Livable World is preparing our first endorsements of the cycle. We will look to protect vulnerable incumbents with whom we have an existing relationship and who will stand up to the administration. We will also look to find challengers who can be decisive in creating a check on the bad policy, including on nuclear weapons, that is coming from the White House and congressional leadership.