If you have tracked federal elections for a while, you may know that campaigns take very little time off after Election Day. Candidates and staff and fundraisers began their fundraising and organizing work for their next campaign within weeks of November 5, 2024. As we gear up for our first endorsements of the 2026 cycle, here is a preliminary overview of the 2026 Senate elections, based on analysis from our experts and the Cook Political Report.
Cook Political Report Scale
Outlook
Trump’s perceived missteps, including on the economy, have Democrats energized about a slim chance to reclaim Senate control. However, like in 2024, Democrats have a tough map: all but two of the 22 Republican seats up for election are in states that President Trump carried by at least 10% in 2024.
Basics
- Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate (two independents caucus with the Democrats).
- 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election in 2026, including special elections in Ohio and Florida.
- 22 of the seats are currently held by Republicans while 13 are held by Democrats.
- Democrats would have to hold every current seat and gain four seats to take control of the Senate.
Key Retirements
Senior lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle have already announced they will not seek reelection. This is typical in any election and will lead to significant re-shuffling, based on who replaces these Senators. Retiring Senators so far:
- Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY): The longtime Republican Senate leader will retire at the end of his term. He already stepped down from his leadership position at the beginning of this Congress. There are several Republicans angling to replace Sen. McConnell: former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY-06) and businessman Nate Morris. Democrats would like popular Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear to run, but Democratic governors in Republican states generally have not fared well in races for the Senate and Beshear may have higher aspirations. Cook Political Report prediction: Solid Republican
- Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): Sen. Durbin, long endorsed by the Council, has been the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate for 20 years. His (mostly expected) decision to step down has ignited a fierce intra-party battle to replace him. So far, Reps. Robin Kelly (IL-02) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (Il-08) have declared as well as Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. Rep. Lauren Underwood (IL-14) is also said to be weighing a bid. Cook Political Report prediction: Solid Democratic
- Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI): The announcement that Sen. Peters, another long-time Council endorsee, would not seek reelection was a surprise. Michigan is a closely divided state and was one where Democrats were hoping not to play defense in 2026. As a reminder, Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) was elected by 0.3% in 2024 while President Trump won Michigan by 0.6%. Two Democrats with national aspirations — Governor Gretchen Whitmer and former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — passed on this race. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI-08), who lost to Slotkin in 2024, has declared alongside Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI-11), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D). Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI-04) is also considering a run. Cook Political Report prediction: Tossup
- Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): Sen. Shaheen, who was regularly endorsed by the Council and who currently serves as Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, is also stepping down. Democrats have united behind the candidacy of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH-01) and may avoid a primary. Republicans’ top candidate would be popular former Governor Chris Sununu, but he has yet to declare his intentions. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who moved to New Hampshire after losing in 2012 and narrowly lost a challenge to Shaheen in 2014, is interested in running. Cook Political Report prediction: Lean Democratic
- Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN): Sen. Smith, who was endorsed by the Council in her first special election and then again when running for a full term, also surprised the political world by announcing her retirement at the end of this term. While the state tends to vote for Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state in November by only 4%. A broad range of candidates have already declared for this race. On the Democratic side they include Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN-02) and former state Sen. Melisa Franzen. Royce White, a former NBA player who ran against Amy Klobuchar for Senate in 2024, has declared on the Republican side. Cook Political Report prediction: Lean Democratic
Other Notable Democratic Seats Up in 2026
Georgia: The state shocked the political world in 2020 when it elected two Democrats to the Senate, including then-33-year-old Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who was backed by the Council and who is up for reelection in 2026. Republicans pressed outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp to challenge Ossoff, but Kemp declined in April. Waiting in the wings is ultra-conservative Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14), among others. With Kemp out, Ossoff is the narrow favorite at this point. Cook Political Report prediction: Tossup
Other Notable Republican Seats Up in 2026
- Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) has turned back opponent after opponent despite strong Democratic challengers and is now Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. She has not officially filed paperwork yet to run in 2026. A large number of Democrats are considering runs, including Maine’s term-limited Governor Janet Mills and Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME-01) among others. Cook Political Report prediction: Lean Republican
- North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R) strongest possible general election opponent is former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), and Democrats are pressing him to run. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D), who was gerrymandered out of his House seat last year, has said he will run if Cooper does not. This race is still developing. Cook Political Report prediction: Lean Republican
- Ohio: The state has turned into a Republican stronghold. In 2024, Bernie Moreno, a wealthy businessman, defeated the last statewide Democratic official, Sen. Sherrod Brown, who regularly earned the Council’s endorsement. On January 17, 2025, Governor DeWine appointed Jon Husted, a former Ohio Secretary of State and Lieutenant Governor, to fill the vacancy left by Vice President JD Vance’s move to the administration. Sen. Husted will run as an incumbent. Democrats hope that either former Sen. Brown or former Rep. Tim Ryan, who lost a race to Vance, will challenge Sen. Husted. Cook Political Report prediction: Likely Republican
- Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R) is facing a tough primary challenge from controversial Attorney General Ken Paxton. Former Rep. Colin Allred (D), who earned the Council’s endorsement since his first bid for Congress in 2018, is considering another run for Senate even though he lost by nine points in 2024. Former NASA astronaut Terry Virts is also said to be seriously considering a run as a Democrat, but Democratic hopes in the Lone Star State have been dashed over and over. Cook Political Report prediction: Solid Republican
- Louisiana: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is vulnerable to a Republican primary challenge because he voted to impeach President Trump in his second impeachment trial. President Trump and MAGA Republicans have long memories. State Treasurer John Fleming has declared to run against him. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA-03), former Rep. Garret Graves (R) and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta (R) are all said to be considering runs. Democrats are unlikely to seriously challenge in Louisiana. Cook Political Report prediction: Solid Republican
