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The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation is the Council’s affiliated 501(c)(3) research organization. |
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MONDAY MARKS 3 YEARS SINCE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE Three years after Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, the Trump administration is seeking a ceasefire in line with Russian demands. Initial negotiations meant to set a framework for a future peace deal between Ukraine and Russia began in Saudi Arabia without Ukrainian or European participation. The talks are unlikely to yield results without Ukrainian participation or meaningful concessions by Russia. There is also no apparent policy to address Russia’s repeated nuclear threats. More resources: Russian Invasion of Ukraine | FAQs: Nuclear Issues in the Ukraine Crisis |
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TRUMP ISSUES EXECUTIVE ORDER REQUIRING DEFENSE DEPARTMENT TO COME UP WITH PLANS FOR ‘IRON DOME’ The Trump administration has proposed a national missile defense system similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome.” Proponents have confused a system designed to protect limited areas with a national missile defense program capable of protecting the entire United States. “What is going on there is far different from what is being worked on and planned and may someday come to pass defending the U.S. homeland,” said Senior Policy Director John Erath to NBC News when President Donald Trump brought up the idea on the campaign trail last year. “It’s apples and oranges.” Since the Iron Dome has worked against unsophisticated short-range threats, the idea is to borrow it to do what it was never designed to do: defend against large numbers of relatively sophisticated, faster ballistic missiles. “If you’re talking about a mass attack from a country on the scale of Russia or China,” said Erath, “the math just doesn’t work out.” |
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UNITED STATES MAY BE CONSIDERING DIPLOMACY WITH IRAN; NEW ‘NUKES OF HAZARD’ PODCAST EPISODE PROVIDES CRITICAL BACKGROUND Prospects for nuclear threat reduction negotiations between Iran and the United States are unclear with mixed messages emanating from the White House. In recent weeks, President Trump has expressed a strong desire to engage Iran diplomatically and avoid a military clash, stating repeatedly that any agreement is predicated on the total dissolution of the Iranian nuclear program. On February 4, President Trump signed an executive order to restore maximum pressure sanctions against Iran but stated that he was reluctant to do so and reiterated his support for negotiating a nuclear deal. It has been reported that Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to mediate negotiations on a new deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program, but International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi shared his belief that time is quickly running out. As the stakes of an Iranian nuclear program mount higher, now is the time for greater diplomacy between Iran and the United States. The Center’s latest Nukes of Hazard podcast addresses past diplomacy related to Iran’s nuclear program and ways to move forward. Program Coordinator and Guest Host Emma Sandifer speaks to Iran experts Negar Mortazavi and Valerie Lincy for this timely episode. Nukes of Hazard is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, or you can listen online now. |
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INDIA HOLDS DISCUSSIONS WITH UNITED KINGDOM, UNITED STATES On February 1, Indian and British officials held consultations on nuclear weapons reductions and non-proliferation, discussing nuclear risks and potential arms control efforts. The talks come as India continues to expand its strategic partnerships amid shifting global security concerns. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaffirmed India’s defense and nuclear partnership with the United States. In a joint statement with President Trump, Modi committed to further cooperation on nuclear technology, defense and regional security. |
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CHINA SHIES AWAY FROM TRILATERAL ARMS REDUCTION President Trump said February 13 that he wants to reengage with Russia and China on nuclear arms control. During his first term, he tried and ultimately was unable to bring China into the extension of the last remaining bilateral arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START. Now with New START set to expire in February 2026, it looks like President Trump wants to try again. It remains to be seen how he plans to entice China into these talks as Beijing has repeatedly stated that it believes Moscow and Washington need to agree to reduce their much larger nuclear stockpiles first before China would seek to limit its own. Additionally, U.S. support of Taiwan has also been a sticking point for meaningful progress on nuclear arms control between the two countries. |
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NORTH KOREA DENOUNCES ALLIED DETERRENCE, DEPLOYS TROOPS IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR In early February, North Korea denounced the United States, South Korea and Japan for what it called “absurd” nuclear deterrence policies. Pyongyang framed U.S. and Allied actions, including a port visit by a U.S. fast-attack submarine to South Korea, as a direct threat to North Korea and defended its nuclear buildup as a necessary response. On February 8, Kim Jong Un then pledged further expansion of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, rejecting any possibility of disarmament. His remarks, delivered at a military gathering, reinforced the country’s stance that nuclear weapons are non-negotiable. The relationship between North Korea and Russia has been further strengthened by the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a development that further complicates continued aggression in Ukraine. Senior Policy Director John Erath argues in an op-ed for The Diplomat that “if the burden of dying to support a regime’s ambitions can be outsourced, war, the act of imposing a state’s will through violence, becomes more viable as a standard instrument of national policy.” |
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ADMINISTRATION AND REPUBLICAN CONGRESS AT ODDS ON MILITARY SPENDING Congressional Republicans and President Trump appear to be on different wavelengths regarding U.S. military and nuclear weapons spending. In Congress, the House is still considering budget resolutions that would allow for $100 billion or more in additional military spending, despite a Pentagon budget that is nearly one trillion dollars already. The Senate passed its budget resolution early Friday morning. President Trump on the other hand expressed unhappiness that hundreds of billions of dollars are invested in rebuilding the U.S. nuclear deterrent and said he hopes to gain commitments from the U.S. adversaries to cut their own nuclear spending. It remains to be seen how this will be accomplished given the strong backing and momentum for nuclear modernization in Congress. Further, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered eight percent of Pentagon spending to be shifted toward Trump-priority programs. Despite the initial news reports that eight percent in Pentagon spending would be cut, that money will simply be reallocated to other military programs, including border security and missile defense. It is not clear from whence the supposed cuts will come. Nuclear weapons and missile defense, however, are exempt from these cuts, which is at odds with President Trump’s arms control comments. One big surprise coming out of the memo Secretary Hegseth sent to his department: the highly prioritized Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines are not exempt from the cuts. |
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DON’T BUY INTO THE HYPERSONIC HYPE In Research Analyst Shawn Rostker’s latest op-ed “Hypersonic Overhype: Challenging the Strategic Necessity of High-Speed Arms,” he argues that the push for hypersonic weapons is driven more by politics than strategic necessity. “Arguments calling for increased funding for hypersonic weapons are gaining traction with lawmakers, based on illusory assumptions about adversaries’ capabilities,” he writes, despite no clear case for their military value. While hypersonics promise speed and maneuverability, they face major technical hurdles, including extreme thermal stress, communication blackouts and limited real-world effectiveness. “The Pentagon must make the case that hypersonics do more than simply materially match our international counterparts, but in fact further the strategic interests of the United States. Thus far, the case hasn’t been made.” Rather than chasing China and Russia down a costly and uncertain path, Rostker argues that it’s time for a more critical examination of whether these weapons truly serve U.S. strategic interests, or if they are just another expensive arms race distraction. |
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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET RECONCILIATION PROCESS BEGINS Both the House and Senate are working on separate budget resolutions to advance President Trump’s agenda. Senate Republican leaders began consideration of their first budget resolution this week. Senate Republicans favor a two-bill approach that includes an increase of $300 billion toward new military and border security spending. A second bill focused on domestic spending, including an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cut, would come later in the year in a second bill. The first bill in their budget resolution passed early Friday morning. House Republican leadership still favors the one-bill approach, mostly due to the tight margins in that chamber. The House Budget Committee advanced its own budget resolution on February 13 following a marathon markup. The resolution will likely be taken up next week once the House returns from recess. Passage in the full House is not certain as some centrist House Republicans are hesitant about proposed cuts to social safety programs like Medicaid. The House approach got a big boost this week when President Trump finally weighed in in favor of a one-bill strategy. |
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NUCLEAR WEAPONS EMPLOYEES FIRED AND REHIRED BY TRUMP ADMINISTRATION The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) continues its chaotic rampage through the federal government. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the agency tasked with designing, building and overseeing the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile was a recent target. Late last week, hundreds of NNSA employees from offices focusing on weapons programs, non-proliferation efforts and nuclear cleanup received termination notices. Within a day, the administration sought to reverse the firings, likely after they heard from congressional Republicans about the potential impacts on nuclear safety. News reporting also suggests that some DOGE employees may have been unaware that these federal workers oversee the safety of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. |
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NEW ON THE NUKES OF HAZARD BLOG: TRITIUM PRODUCTION The Center’s Nukes of Hazard blog series, Next Up in Arms Control, features ideas from new, young or otherwise unheard voices hoping to make a difference in arms control and national security. In “How Military Tritium Production in Civilian Reactors Can Further Non-proliferation Goals,” Virginia Tech Postdoctoral Associate Taylor Loy argues for tritium production at civilian reactors. |
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CONSIDER BECOMING A MONTHLY DONOR As election season continues, the Council is also hard at work on its advocacy on Capitol Hill. Have you considered making a monthly donation to support our efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear threats through political action? You can donate as little as $1 a month. Become a monthly supporter today! |
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