During the hot presidential primary season, polling firms focused on presidential primary outcomes and not too much on congressional elections.
Now there are several new polls on Senate races each day that provide a glimpse of the contests. Sometimes conflicting glimpses.
Surprise, surprise — in the first fall poll in Delaware, Sen. Joseph Biden (D) will keep his day job in the Senate if the Obama ticket does not win in November.
Genuinely surprising – a Kentucky poll showing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) only three points ahead of businessman Brian Lunsford.
But there is another poll taken only a few days before showing McConnell with a more comfortable 13 point lead.
Or take New Hampshire. In the Research 2000 poll, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), backed by Council for a Livable World, retains a 9 point lead over incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R).
In a controversial poll (controversial because of doubts about the accuracy of automated polls) Sununu actually leads Shaheen by7 points.
In Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) is either 3 points ahead or 5 points behind Council for a Livable World-endorsed Jeff Merkley (D)
Bottom line: devour polls if you like, but recognize that all polls are snapshots in time and can be very accurate or very inaccurate.
Full polling data after the jump.
N.B. This listing includes mostly media and public polls; party or candidate polls are generally not used unless other polls are unavailable. This listing also tries to avoid automated polls such as Rasmussen except if there is no alternative or to provide alternative numbers. Because all polls have a margin of error in their numbers, they should be taken as useful indicators at the moment the polling is conducted rather than absolute truth. In some instances, conflicting polls will be provided. Numbers may not add up to precisely 100% due to rounding.
Alabama
66% – Sen. Jeff Sessions (R)
31% – Vivian Davis Figures (D)
3% – Undecided
Survey USA poll conducted September 16 – 17, 2008 – 655 likely voters
Alaska
47% – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)
43% – Sen. Ted Stevens (R)
9% – Undecided, other
Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll conducted September 17 -21, 2008 – 601 likely voters
Colorado
48% – Rep. Mark Udall (D)
40% – ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R)
12% – Undecided, other
Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 14 – 21, 2008 – 1,418 likely voters
Delaware
69% – Sen. Joseph Biden (D)
26% – Christine O’Donnell (R)
6% – Undecided, other
Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll conducted September 17 -21, 2008 – 601 likely voters
Georgia
53% – Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R)
36% – Jim Martin (D)
11% – Undecided, other
Survey USA poll conducted September14 – 16, 2008 for Roll Call – 684 likely voters
Idaho
56% – Lt. Gov. James Risch (R)
33% – ex-Rep. Larry LaRocco (D)
11% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 16 – 17, 2008 for Daily Kos – 500 likely voters
Illlinois
56% – Sen. Dick Durbin (D)
35% – Steve Sauerberg (R)
9% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 15 – 18 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV – 800 likely voters
Iowa
58% – Sen. Tom Harkin (D)
34% – Christopher Reed (R)
9% – undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted August 7, 2008 – 500 likely voters
Kansas
55% – Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
35% – former Rep. Jim Slattery (D)
10% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted September 21 – 22, 2008 – 666 likely voters
Kentucky
50% – Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)
37% – Bruce Lunsford (D)
13% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 15 – 17, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters
49% – Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)
46% – Bruce Lunsford (D)
5% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted September 21 – 22, 2008 – 672 likely voters
Lousiana
46% – Sen. Mary Landrieu (D)
40% – State Treasurer John Kennedy (R)
14% – Undecided
Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted June 26 – 28, 2008 – 600 likely voters
Maine
57% – Sen. Susan Collins (R)
38% – Rep. Tom Allen (D)
5% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8-10, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters
Michigan
56% – Sen. Carl Levin (D)
28% – state rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
16% – Undecided
Detroit News & four television stations poll conducted September 14 – 17, 2008 by EPIC-MRA – 600 likely voters
Massachusetts
65% – Rep. John Kerry (D)
30% – Jeff Beatty (R)
5% – Undecided, other
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23, 2008 – 500 likely voters
Minnesota
49% – Rep. Norm Coleman (R)
42% – Al Franken (D)
9% – Undecided, other
Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 14 – 21, 2008 – 1,301 likely voters
Mississippi
48% – Rep. Roger Wicker (R)
43% – ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
9% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8 – 10, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters
Montana
64% – Sen. Max Baucus (D)
31% – Mike Lange (R)
6% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted September 7, 2008 – 700 likely voters
Nebraska
56% – ex-Governor Mike Johanns (R)
31% – Scott Kleeb (D)
13% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted July 28, 2008 – 500 likely voters
New Hampshire
52% – Sen. John Sununu (R)
45% – former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
3% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23, 2008 – 700 likely voters
50% – former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
41% – Sen. John Sununu (R)
9% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 22 – 24, 2008 for Concord Monitor – 800 likely voters
New Jersey
48% – Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D)
39% – former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R)
13% – Undecided, other
Marist poll conducted September 10 – 14, 2008 – 1,187 likely voters
New Mexico
56% – Rep. Tom Udall (D)
41% – Rep. Steve Pearce (R)
3% – Undecided
Survey USA poll conducted September 14 – 16, 2008 for KOB-TV – 671 likely voterss
North Carolina
48% – Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)
42% – Kay Hagan (D)
10% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8 – 10 , 2008 for DailyKos – 600 likely voters
48% – Kay Hagan (D)
45% – Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)
7% – Undecided, other
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23 , 2008 – 500 likely voters
Oklahoma
56% – Sen. Jim Inhofe (R)
34% – Andrew Rice (D)
10% undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 16 – 18, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters
Oregon
42% – Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
39% – Jeff Merkley (D)
19% – undecided
Portland Tribune/Fox 12 poll conducted September 11 – 14, 2008 by conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall – 500 registered voters
45% – Jeff Merkley (D)
40% – Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
15% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 22 – 24, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters
South Carolina
54% – Sen. Lindsey Graham (R)
40% – Bob Conley (D)
6% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted September 21 – 22, 2008 – 690 likely voters
Tennessee
60% – Sen. Lamar Alexander (R)
30% – Bob Tuke (D)
10% – Undecided
Ayres, McHenry & Associates Republican poll conducted August 10 – 12, 2008 – 500 registered voters
Texas
48% – Sen. John Cornyn (R)
37% – Rick Noriega (D)
16% – Undecided
Rasmussen conducted August 21, 2008 – 500 likely voters
Virginia
61% – ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D)
29% – ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)
10% – Undecided, other
ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted September 18 -21, 2008 – 857 registered voters
