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You are here: Home / Political News and Notes

Political News and Notes

Updates on the 2022 races and our endorsed candidates from Senior Fellow John Isaacs

August 8, 2022
More good news on prospects for Democrats retaining control of Senate: As previously reported, Decision Desk HQ 2022 Senate election model predicted that Democrats have a 59.6% chance of controlling the Senate. Their mean seat projection is 50 (R) and 50 (D). Nate Silver’s 538 now says that the Senate is a tossup, with Democrats having 53 chances out of 100 for retaining control while Republicans have 47 chances. They have been joined by two more favorable analyses. Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik declared control of the Senate is now a toss-up, with a favorable political environment helping the GOP but balanced by their very untested candidates. In addition, the National Journal’s Hotline reported that “The Senate map has emerged as a bright spot for Democrats” even while President Biden’s approval ratings are still in the dumps. It helps, Hotline reports, that the top six most competitive Senate races this year are being held in state that Biden carried in 2020. 

 

August 6, 2022
Sen. Patty Murray looks strong after primary victory: Republicans have been looking to the Washington State Senate race as a long-shot opportunity to pick off a Democrat, Council-endorsed Sen. Patty Murray. First-time candidate Tiffany Smiley (R) has raised a large campaign war chest. She has also built a reputation as a veterans’ advocate whose husband became the first blind active-duty Army officer after her work to convince the Army to restore him after he was injured in Iraq. Murray has been taking the threat seriously, and launched more than $1 million in negative TV ads against Smiley before the primary. But with votes still being counted after the 100% mail-in ballots (it can take weeks), Murray finished the jungle primary – where candidates of all parties compete against each other – with a very strong 57% of the vote against 17 opponents compared to only 33% for Smiley. While the margin will certainly tighten in November, Murray’s strong showing is a harbinger of a new term in the Senate. 

 

August 3, 2022
Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI) loses Democratic primary: An intra-party primary as a result of redistricting is almost always difficult and awkward. That was the case in the August 2 confrontation in Michigan between Council-endorsed Rep. Andy Levin and Rep. Haley Stevens, two colleagues who were forced by redistricting to run against each other. It was a contentious battle, with Stevens aided by new district lines that gave her more of her former district and by a $4.2 million advertising binge from the rightwing American Israel Public Affairs Committee in favor of Stevens. The district also is partial to women candidates. Stevens won 60-40%. The loss ended a 43-year stretch of Michigan’s Levin family serving in Congress, dating to his late Uncle Carl Levin’s time in the U.S. Senate starting in 1979, through Andy Levin succeeding his father, Rep. Sander Levin, in 2015. The seat is safely Democratic, and Rep. Stevens will return to Congress next year. Levin quickly held a post-election press conference and graciously endorsed his rival. He will be heard from again. 

 

 

July 29, 2022
Then there was one: Candidates drop in Wisconsin Senate race: Democrats have long had their eye on the Wisconsin Senate race where conspiracy theorist Sen. Ron Johnson (R) has been considered the most vulnerable Senate Republican up for election. While Johnson has had an unfettered path to renomination, Democrats faced an August 9 multicandidate primary with four serious candidates. But on July 25, Tom Nelson, the Outagamie County executive, dropped out of the race and endorsed the frontrunner, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. That announcement was followed up on July 27 when multimillionaire Alex Lasry, who had already sunk $12 million into his own campaign, also quit the race and likewise backed the frontrunner. Two days later, state treasurer Sarah Godlewski withdrew; Mandela Barnes will be the Democratic nominee and he can begin the general election campaign immediately.  

 

July 28, 2022
Good news on prospects for Democrats retaining control of Senate: While chances for Republicans to take over the House are still high, Decision Desk HQ 2022 Senate election model predicts that Democrats now have a 59.6% chance of controlling the Senate. Their mean seat projection is 50 (R) and 50 (D). And they are not alone in the changed forecast. Nate Silver’s 538 now says that the Senate is a tossup, with Democrats having 53 chances out of 100 for retaining control while Republicans have 47 chances. Thus, despite President Biden’s unpopularity and concerns over inflation, gas prices and Covid, the politics of 2022 are shifting again. 

 

July 28, 2022
Tim Ryan’s Ohio Senate campaign pulls into tie with JD Vance: Rep. Tim Ryan’s campaign for an open Senate seat in Ohio has always been seen as a stretch in right-leaning Ohio. But recent polling plus new campaign fundraising figures suggest that Ryan has turned the contest against Trump favorite J.D. Vance into a tossup. Polls differ about who is ahead but agree it is a close race. Ryan is running in the model of Sen. Sherrod Brown, the populist progressive who has appealed to blue collar workers and won three statewide elections in Ohio since 2006. Former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe recently praised Ryan’s “brilliant campaign.” Vance, on the other hand, finished the last fundraising quarter $250,000 in debt. Republicans are criticizing Vance’s lackluster campaign; a longtime Youngstown radio host declared, “I think he’s running the worst campaign that you could possibly run.” Nate Silver’s political website has officially pronounced the race a tossup. 

 

July 18, 2022
Senator Hassan’s lucky break: Axios has run an article entitled “Maggie Hassan’s lucky break.” After winning in 2016 by a mere 1,017 votes, Hassan (D-NH) was initially seen as one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for re-election this year. The first break came when New Hampshire’s popular current Gov. Chris Sununu announced in November that he would not enter the race. Since then, her major advantage: a very late New Hampshire September 13 primary with no clear GOP frontrunner. In the meantime, the incumbent has been running fundraising circles over the Republican candidates. The political handicappers rate the race lean Democratic. 

 

July 15, 2022
Ohio GOP Senate candidate JD Vance goes begging for money: J.D. Vance is working to raise money, but primarily to pay back the $700,000 he loaned the campaign. Vance had the backing of former President Donald Trump and $10 million from venture capitalist Peter Theil to win the GOP primary, but has raised little money since. According to his latest Federal Election Commission report, Vance has $628,000 cash-on-hand combined with $883,000 in debt. In the meantime, Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan’s copious fundraising has run circles around Vance, and polls show a close race. Vance, after characterizing former President Trump as an “idiot” and a “noxious” person during his first run, later called him the best president of his lifetime. 

 

July 14, 2022
Rep. Bill Foster takes the lead on important national security issues: Rep. Bill Foster (D-IL-11) is the only PhD physicist in Congress.  He has frequently engaged in oversight of nuclear policy issues, where his physicist background gives him a unique perspective to evaluate technical aspects of non-proliferation, arms control, and verification issues. When the House of Representatives took up the annual National Defense Authorization Act in mid-July, he successfully offered an amendment to reverse the prohibition on funding the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. He also co-sponsored a successful amendment by Rep. Jim Langevin (D-RI) to authorize funding of research into low enriched uranium to fuel U.S. nuclear submarines, which reduces the risk of nuclear proliferation. 

 

July 10, 2022
Fetterman trolls Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania: While Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) is still recovering from his health scare, he is having fun trolling his GOP opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, on the airwaves and in the skies. Fetterman went up with an ad trashing Oz for his non-existent ties to Pennsylvania (he has lived in New Jersey for more than three decades) and flew a banner over New Jersey shores reading “HEY DR. OZ, WELCOME HOME TO NJ! ❤️ JOHN.” Who says politics can’t be fun. 

 

July 6, 2022
Control of Senate a toss-up; GOP chances undermined by flaky candidates: Political pundits are now saying control of the Senate is a toss-up. A recent New York Times piece suggested “a brighter picture is coming together for Democrats on the Senate side.” The Times quoted a Republican strategist criticizing GOP nominees for Senate as an “island of misfit toys,” candidates Democrats will attempt to portray as out of the mainstream on policy, personally compromised and too cozy with Donald Trump. The articles cites Blake Masters (R-AZ), who in past writings has criticized the entry of the United States into the 1st & 2nd World Wars; Herschel Walker (R-GA), who has inveighed railed against absentee fathers while claiming to have one child when three others have been discovered; Dr. Mehmet Oz (R-PA), who lived in New Jersey before announcing his Senate run, recently misspelled the name of his new hometown on an official document and has been slow out of the gate after his narrow primary win; Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) who, it was recently revealed, tried to hand-deliver a fraudulent list of electors to former Vice President Mike Pence, on January 6. Nate Silver’s 538 recently released is Senate forecast, calling the Senate a toss-up. 

 

July 5, 2022
New Hampshire Senate race and abortion politics: The recent Supreme Court decision overturning the Roe v. Wade that had legalized abortions has, in many of the 2022 elections races, provided an opportunity for Democrats to go on the offensive on the issue. In late June, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) became the first Senate candidate in a battleground state directly addressing the overturning of Roe. She had begun running a direct–to–camera ad in which she stated, “This decision catapults us backwards, and there are politicians like Mitch McConnell who’ve made it clear that their objective is to ban abortion nationwide. We will not be intimidated. I will fight and never back down.” All five of the GOP candidates endorsed the recent decision. Polls show Hassan with a modest lead over her opponents; the New Hampshire primary is one of the latest in the country, September 13. 

 

June 29, 2022
Colorado Senate election becomes more challenging for Sen. Bennet: While Colorado is a Democratic-trending state and President Biden easily carried the state, the 2022 Senate contest has become more difficult for incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D) as he will face a more moderate Republican in November. In the June 28 GOP primary, businessman Joe O’Dea beat state Rep. Ron Hanks, an ardent advocate of Donald Trump’s stolen 2020 election charge, 55.5-45.5%. A Democratic-linked outside group spent almost $4 million on ads that proclaimed Hanks’ right-wing credentials and attacked O’Dea. This media campaign attempted to duplicate Sen. Claire McCaskill’s gambit in 2012 that helped make Rep. Todd Akin (R) the GOP nominee, where he self-destructed. Bennet won his last election in 2016 50-44% and a recent poll showed him ahead of O’Dea 49-36%, but national Democrats are not taking this race for granted this year.  

 

June 29, 2022
Results of Illinois internecine progressive primary: Redistricting has led to multiple incumbent- vs.-incumbent primaries in a number of states, including Illinois. Two progressives, two-term Rep. Sean Casten and freshman Rep. Marie Newman, were forced into a face-off in an Illinois primary. Casten prevailed by a substantial 68-29% margin in Chicago’s inner western suburbs. Newman was hurt by an ethics investigation into charges she sought to keep a potential primary opponent out of the race when she ran in 2020 by offering him a job as a top aide if she won. 

 

June 28, 2022
AIPAC intervenes against Rep. Andy Levin: Speaking of incumbent-vs.-incumbent races forced by redistricting, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) Super PAC has purchased roughly $820,000 in the Detroit media market for one week of TV ads supporting Rep. Haley Stevens (D) in Michigan’s newly-drawn 11th District against Council-endorsed Rep. Andy Levin (D). AIPAC has endorsed more than 100 Republicans who voted to overturn the 2020 election. AIPAC also bundled $280,000 in individual contributions for Stevens’ campaign, making her a top Democratic recipient of their money. Levin, besides his Council endorsement, is being backed by many progressive organizations, national unions, environmental groups, Planned Parenthood, J Street, and teacher groups. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is featured in a Levin ad saying, “He’s the true progressive in this race.” 

 

June 28, 2022
PA Senate candidate John Fetterman’s unusual campaign: Since John Fetterman, the Council-endorsed Senate candidate from Pennsylvania, suffered a stroke in mid-May he has, at the behest of doctors and his wife, stayed off the campaign trail. However, the New York Times reports: “More than a month into his recovery, Fetterman is trying something utterly novel in American politics: a towel-snapping virtual campaign of sassy online memes, withering mockery of his opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, and fourth-wall-bending television ads and online videos that explode many of the usual tropes of political campaigns.” The Times also relates that Fetterman “is still very much his old self — gruff and iconoclastic, flaunting his stinging sense of humor, razor-sharp memory and an encyclopedic knowledge of political and cultural arcana.” Polls indicated that Fetterman has a six-to-nine point lead over his GOP opponent, who came out of a close Republican primary bruised by his New Jersey roots and uncertain science on his television shows. 

 

June 15, 2022
Mondaire Jones introduces himself “differently” to new district: Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) has launched his first ad, called “Different,” in his new district: “Do I stand out in Washington? Yes. Let’s see: I’m a New Yorker. I grew up in Section 8 housing and on food stamps, raised by a single mom. I’m Black, I’m gay, and damn proud to be different.”

 

June 14, 2022
Murray runs negative ad, signaling concerns: Sen. Patty Murray is running a negative ad against her Republican opponent, motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley. The ad plays an audio of Smiley saying “I met with President Trump, and I was so impressed.” The ad says that Smiley “still has serious questions about the 2020 elections.” This move is evidence that Murray has a real race on her hands. 

 

June 13, 2022
Democrats run ad in Colorado Senate contest to boost extreme candidate: In 2012, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) ran ads praising one of her opponents to encourage Republicans to nominate a more extreme candidate. It worked: the Missouri GOP nominated Todd Akin, who self-destructed in the general election. This year, Democrats are trying to repeat this strategy in several states, including in Colorado where Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for re-election. An independent group called Democratic Colorado is spending up to $2 million running an ad that praises GOP candidate Ron Hanks, who proudly participated in the January 6 Capitol insurrection. The ad states that Hanks is too conservative for the state, highlighting his record on border security, gun rights and opposing abortion. A Washington Post article on this campaign and two others suggests that this strategy as risking electing to office more extreme candidates. 

 

June 8, 2022
Primary results some key primaries  

California 27th district: State Assembly Representative Christy Smith (D) easily topped John “Quaye” Quartey (D) with 37% of the vote compared to 6%, setting up a third toss up contest in November between Rep. Mike Garcia (R) and Smith. In 2020, Smith lost by only 333 votes. 

California 47th district: Rep. Katie Porter (D) finished the primary in the newly formed 47th district with a very strong 51% of the vote, setting up a contest with Scott Baugh (R), the former leader of the California State Assembly, in November. This is a “Lean Democratic” district according to the Cook Political Report. 

California 49th district: Rep. Mike Levin (D) advanced to the November ballot with 50% of the vote. He faces a rematch with his 2020 opponent Brian Maryott (R), who received 19% of the vote. 

New Jersey 3rd district: Rep. Andy Kim (D) easily won his primary, and now faces yacht business owner Bob Healey (R). Kim is one of the few Democrats representing a district also carried by President Donald Trump in 2020. 

New Jersey 7th district: Back for a rematch is 2020 nominee and former state Senator Tom Kean Jr. (R) against Council endorsee Rep. Tom Malinowski (D). The Malinowski staved off Kean in 2020 by only 1.2 percentage points, and redistricting has moved the district several points toward GOP favorability.

 

June 3, 2022
Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary ends: Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate David McCormick conceded the close primary contest to Dr. Mehmet Oz even though the state recount was still underway and there has been no official race call. Dr. Oz had a lead of fewer than 1,000 votes, or .07 percent, before the county-by-county recount began last week. This decision sets up one of the major Senate races in the country against Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a heart condition.

 

May 31, 2022
Encouraging poll in Ohio Senate race: A Columbus Dispatch/Suffolk poll shows a close race emerging in Ohio since J.D. Vance became the GOP nominee against Rep. Tim Ryan. The poll showed Vance only ahead by 42-39%. A separate Innovation Ohio poll put Ryan in the lead by two points. Vance won the Republican primary, but did so after converting from an anti-Trumper to a Trump disciple. Vance also tweeted, “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine,” and praised Hungary’s authoritarian and anti-migrant leader Viktor Orban. Rep. Ryan emerged from the primary with favorability of 17 points while Vance has a net unfavorability of 4 points.

 

May 27, 2022
New Hampshire redistricting finally concluded: New Hampshire was the last state to finish its decennial congressional redistricting — aside from pending legal challenges in Florida and elsewhere — despite having only two districts. The state’s court-appointed special master has proposed lines that make minimal changes and make seats held by Rep. Annie Kuster (D) and Rep. Chris Pappas (D) competitive. The Republican-controlled state legislature had proposed lines that would have helped Kuster by adding blue portions of the state while undercutting Pappas in the hope of electing a Republican to replace Pappas. However, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) vetoed the legislative plan, leading to a result where just five towns changed districts.

 

May 26, 2022
Pennsylvania Senate race on hold: The critically important Pennsylvania Senate race is in limbo a week after the primary. Council-endorsed John Fetterman is out of the hospital after suffering a stroke, but the timing of his return to the campaign trail is unclear. Fetterman’s wife, Gisele Fetterman, has said that her husband has no set timeline.

At the same time, Fetterman’s Republican opponent is also not yet clear. Pennsylvania’s acting secretary announced that a recount of the primary votes will be launched. Each of the state’s 67 counties can start their recounts as of May 26 and must finish by June 7. There are also uncounted mail-in ballots. According to the official count to this point, Dr. Mehmet Oz leads Dave McCormick by 902 votes out of 1.3 million votes counted. The two candidates are also fighting in the courts over which mail-in ballots can be tabulated.

 

May 25, 2022
Another close contest for Jessica Cisneros in Texas:  The outcome of Council-endorsed Jessica Cisneros’ run-off primary election challenging Rep. Henry Cueller in Texas’ 28th district is still up in the air. Following the initial tally, Cisneros trails Cuellar by 177 votes out of more than 45,000 votes cast. Cuellar won 50.2% compared to Cisneros’ 49.8% of the vote, and the race has not yet been officially called. The House Democratic leadership endorsed the incumbent, who has declared victory even though a recount is likely.

 

May 25, 2022
Trump’s mixed 2022 election endorsement record in competitive races: One of the major questions about the 2022 elections is former President Donald Trump’s continued sway over the Republican Party. As the accounting below indicates after Trump-supported candidates in Georgia failed dramatically, his record is mixed:

July 27, 2021

Trump Loss: Texas special House election: Susan Wright

November 21, 2021

Trump Loss: Pennsylvania Senate: Sean Parnell (dropped out)

May 3, 2022

Trump Win: Ohio Senate: JD Vance

Trump Loss: Ohio Gov. DeWine wins renomination

Trump Win: Ohio Secretary of State: Frank LaRose

Trump Win: OH-13: Madison Gilbert

Trump Win: OH-7: Max Miller

May 10, 2022

Trump Loss: Nebraska Governor: Charles Herbster

Trump Win: WV-02: Rep. Alex Mooney over Rep. David McKinley

Trump Loss: NB-02: Rep. Don Bacon, who won

May 17, 2022

Trump Win: North Carolina Senate: Rep. Ted Budd

Trump Win: Pennsylvania Governor: Doug Mastriano

Trump Loss: NC-11: Madison Cawthorn

Trump Win: NC-13: Rep. Bo Hines

Trump Loss: Idaho Governor: Janice McGeachin

May 24, 2022

Trump Win: Georgia Senator: Herschel Walker

Trump Loss: Georgia Governor: David Perdue

Trump Loss: Georgia Attorney General: Chris Carr, who won

Trump Loss: Georgia Secretary of State: Brad Raffensberger, who won

Trump Win: Arkansas Governor: Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Trump Win: Texas Attorney General: Ken Paxton

Trump Loss: Alabama Senate: endorsed, later withdrew endorsement of Rep. Mo Brooks, who moves onto a run-off

Still unknown

Unknown: Pennsylvania Senate: Dr. Mehmet Oz – too close to call; recount expected

Unknown: GA-06 – Jake Evans; runoff  June 21

Unknown: GA-10 – Vernon Jones/ runoff June 21

 

May 21, 2022
New York State redistricting finalized : The New York State Supreme Court approved a new congressional redistricting plan that drastically modified a plan previously drawn by the Democratic legislature. Some highlights:

►The previous Democratic gerrymander would have favored Democrats to win 22 out of 26 seats; the new plan has 15 safe Democratic seats, three safe Republican seats and eight swing seats.

►Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D) and Jerrold Nadler (D), who have served alongside each other for 30 years, are forced to run against each other in a new 12 th district.

►Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), who appeared to face a contest against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D), will run instead in a newly reconfigured 10th District in Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, a race that will also include former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and other candidates

►A district that had been reconfigured that would have helped former Rep. Max Rose’s (D) comeback has been returned to its mostly former GOP-leaning form.

►Two upstate Republicans, Reps. Claudia Tenney and Chris Jacobs, no longer must run against each other.

 

May 16, 2022
North Carolina Senate primary results : Former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley easily won her primary in the Tar Heel state, and faces Rep. Ted Budd (R), who swamped former Gov. Pat McCrory (R).

 

May 16, 2022
Pennsylvania Senate primary results : Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D) easily beat Rep. Conor Lamb (D) in the Democratic primary, 59-26%. Lamb immediately endorsed the winner. The Republican primary is still too close to call, and with absentee ballots still to be counted and a recount very possible, the winner may not be determined for weeks. Dr. Mehmet Oz barely leads Dave McCormack 21.2-31.1%, a margin of about 1,000 votes. From Politico : “Pennsylvania Republicans are predicting trench warfare that could drag out for weeks — and be fought in the media, as well as potentially in the courts.”

 

May 15, 2022
PA Senate candidate suffers stroke : Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a leading Democratic candidate vying for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, says he suffered a stroke on Friday but is on his way to a full recovery.

 

May 14, 2022
Cuellar ducks and dodges in TX-28 : If you need evidence of the challenges resulting from Justice Samuel Alito’s draft opinion on Roe v. Wade, look no further than Rep. Henry Cuellar’s attempt to pretend to be what he is not. A super PAC called Mainstream Democrats supporting Cuellar is running an ad before the May 24 primary runoff claiming he opposes a ban on abortion. In fact, Cuellar supports the Supreme Court opinion and has voted for abortion bans in the past.

 

May 11, 2022
Radiation Exposure Compensation Act: Council-endorsed Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) and Representative Teresa Leger Fernández (D-NM-03 ) played a key role in the successful passage of a two-year extension to the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA) to cover people exposed to harmful radiation from U.S. nuclear weapons testing and uranium mining. As their joint statement indicates, t hey continue to fight to expand and strengthen the measure. Leger Fernandez is a CLW endorsee who serves New Mexico’s 3rd Congressional District, which she first won in 2020 with 59% of the vote. Redistricting has led her seat to geographically grow and become more competitive this cycle.

 

May 7, 2022
Donald Trump Continues Senate Campaigning: Fresh off his claimed victory for J.D. Vance in Ohio, the former president rallied in Pennsylvania with his preferred candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is engaged in a hot GOP primary that will take place May 17. The winner will almost surely face Council-endorsed candidate John Fetterman. Rolling Stone reported, “Trump attempted to sell his supporters on Oz in a variety of ways, ranging from the banal to the bizarre — even going so far as to remind the audience that Oz was ‘in the bedrooms’ of women across America, as if that was a good, totally un-creepy asset for a would-be politician.” 

 

May 6, 2022
Ohio Senate Primary : In almost final results, Rep. Tim Ryan received 70% of the Democratic primary with 355,764 votes. He received more votes than author J.D. Vance, who was given a tremendous boost by former President Donald Trump, and won the Republican nomination with 32% of the vote and 340,991 votes. However, twice as many people voted in the Republican primary compared to Democrats. As the New York Times reported, “[The suburbs] is where Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat hoping to appeal to establishment Republicans and working-class voters, will have to drive up the vote to overcome conservative shifts in more rural parts of the state.”

 

May 6, 2022
Minnesota Toss-up : The political prognosticators agree: Minnesota’s Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN-02) is in for a tight race. Craig, who first won this seat in 2018, won a narrow victory in 2020, 48-46%. The estimates of the race in 2022:

Cook Political Report: Toss up

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss up
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic

 

May 5, 2022
Pennsylvania Senate : John Fetterman  has widened his Democratic primary lead over his main opponent. He now leads Rep. Conor Lamb by 53-14% in a new Franklin & Marshall Poll . The primary is May 17. In the meantime, Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidates are engaged in a donnybrook, with three candidates are within a few points of each other. Donald Trump has given his still-powerful endorsement to celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz, who hailed from New Jersey until recently.

 

May 3, 2022
Texas Progressive Primary : One House race where the Council has endorsed may see an early test over the enormous national controversy over the Politico leak of a draft opinion by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is the Jessica Cisneros primary challenge to Rep. Henry Cuellar. The runoff primary is May 24. Cuellar is the only House Democrat to vote against legislation to codify Roe v. Wade. An article in the Texas Tribune pointed out that, “The tight race between Cuellar, a moderate Democrat who famously opposes abortion, and Cisneros, a young progressive, represents the most vivid illustration of how the leaked opinion could reshape a number of the fast-approaching runoffs.”

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