My instinct was that Dan Maffei held a lead against his Republican opponent to replace retiring Rep. Jim Walsh (R), but not as large a lead as shown in a poll Maffei released this week:
Kiley & Co. (10/2-3, 500 likely voters)
Maffei – 49%
Sweetland – 31%
(MOE ±4%)
Learn more about Dan Maffei here.