Council: Front and Center: July 26, 2026

CIVIL NUCLEAR AGREEMENT WITH SAUDI ARABIA COULD POSE SERIOUS NON-PROLIFERATION CONCERNS

The Trump administration announced on July 22 that it finalized an agreement for civil nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia, a landmark announcement with significant non-proliferation concerns. Although the full text of the agreement has not yet been released to the public, reporting indicates that the arrangement will allow the Saudis to pursue a domestic uranium enrichment capability, which could lead to weapons capability.

Non-proliferation experts encourage any agreement to meet the “Gold Standard” for non-proliferation established by the agreement between the United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which required the UAE to adopt an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Additional Protocol and to agree to forego enrichment and reprocessing.

Senior Policy Director John Erath told CNN that the deal could be “potentially a very big problem” and that standards are necessary to ensure Saudi Arabia is not “engaging in enrichment activities that would lead to nuclear weapons capability.”

Erath told ABC News (Australia) that Saudi Arabia has indicated it has been unwilling to sign an Additional Protocol, which is what ensures IAEA inspections to prevent weapons-grade materials proliferation.

“Without that, how do we meet the high standards of non-proliferation? That’s really going to be the question people will ask about this deal when the details become known and what will receive the most scrutiny… There are several reasons to make such a deal at this time. The basic one is economic; we’re talking about several billions of dollars here that would go toward U.S. business. But more than that, it’s that if you do a deal the right way, you actually reinforce non-proliferation standards by requiring that transparency; by requiring that availability to inspection, you’re setting the high standards for civilian nuclear power throughout the world. So if done right, this is a very good thing. If done wrong, it could lead to proliferation.”

After the agreement is finalized, it must be transmitted to Congress for review per the Atomic Energy Act of 1954. Congress is granted 90 days to review the agreement under the law and adopt a Joint Resolution of Disapproval to block it if deemed threatening to U.S. non-proliferation priorities. Civil nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia has sparked bipartisan non-proliferation concerns in the past, so it is possible Congress moves to block this agreement depending on the terms.

Under previous administrations, bipartisan legislation was introduced to require the approval of Congress before any nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia could come into force. That legislation was sponsored by Senator Ed Markey (D-MA) and then-Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who is now Secretary of State.

Since announcing the agreement, Trump has now said that Saudi Arabia must join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, which could be a red line for Saudi Arabia and ultimately sink the deal.

PROSPECTS OF DIPLOMACY WITH IRAN SEEM DIM AS FIGHTING AND THREATS CONTINUE

Despite efforts to end the war between the United States and Iran last month and the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to bring an end to the fighting, tensions have again flared with many seeing the current fighting as a battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran asserts the MOU recognized Iran’s authority over transit through the vital energy route, while the United States says Tehran committed to freedom of navigation through the strait.

Stemming from this dispute, in late June, President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the truce by launching drone attacks on ships in the Strait, leading to retaliatory strikes by the United States. Since then, sites across Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan and Bahrain have seen strikes, not to mention continued fighting in the Strait of Hormuz and the stalling of shipping lanes.

Prospects of diplomacy continue to dim following President Trump’s July 21 statement that U.S. military forces plan to launch strikes against Pickaxe Mountain “pretty soon and very heavily.” Pickaxe Mountain is Iran’s heavily fortified underground site suspected by some of covertly hosting uranium-enrichment centrifuges, although it is not verified whether the site hosts any elements of Iran’s nuclear program. In the same statement, President Trump noted that Iran wants to “desperately meet” to resume diplomacy but that the United States refuses to engage in diplomatic efforts “until [Iran] are ready to meet in a meaningful way.”

STRIKES CONTINUE IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AS UKRAINE SHUFFLES GOVERNMENT

In mid-July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initiated a major government reshuffle, replacing the prime minister, commander-in-chief and defense minister, among other positions, in an effort to quell a recent wave of political turmoil. Many view the change as marking a new generation of military leadership in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange deadly strikes on each other’s soil with Ukraine stepping up long-range strikes on Russia’s oil sector and battlefield logistics, and Russia targeting Ukrainian cities.

CHINA’S SPACE CAPABILITIES ARE DEVELOPING ‘BREATHTAKINGLY FAST’ SAYS SPACE FORCE NOMINEE

China’s accelerating military modernization came into sharper focus this month as developments across space and nuclear weapons reinforced concerns in Washington about Beijing’s growing strategic capabilities.

During his July 16 confirmation hearing, Lt. Gen. Douglas Schiess, the nominee to lead the U.S. Space Force, warned that China is developing counterspace and space-superiority capabilities at a “breathtakingly fast” pace. He pointed to ground-based anti-satellite weapons, electromagnetic jamming systems and intelligence satellites that allow China to track and target U.S. forces across greater distances.

His warning followed a rare public disclosure from Chinese military researchers detailing high-power microwave weapons capable of producing pulses of up to 100 gigawatts. The systems could potentially disrupt or disable low-Earth-orbit satellite networks such as Starlink at relatively low cost, offering a concrete example of the counterspace threat Schiess described before Congress.

China is also demonstrating its growing capabilities closer to Earth. On July 6, Beijing launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from a submarine into the Pacific, displaying the new sea-based component of its nuclear deterrent. Although China characterized the test as routine, limited advance notification drew criticism from the United States and several regional governments.

NOBEL LAUREATES ASSERT NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE GUARDRAILS

Following up on Pope Leo XIV’s encyclical Magnifica Humanitas, which emphasized the need to prioritize human flourishing in artificial intelligence (AI) development, a group of Nobel Laureates traveled to Rome last week to discuss the development of AI and the dangers posed by integrating this technology with the nuclear weapons enterprise.

The weeklong conference culminated in the signing of the “Rome Declaration for an Unarmed and Disarming Peace in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Nuclear and Autonomous Weapons, New Digital Protocols, and Emerging Models of Digital Development,” which calls on the international community to take steps to prevent an AI arms race and ensure this technology is utilized strictly for peaceful purposes. It also reiterates the dangers of nuclear weapons and urges all nations to prevent AI from being wrongfully utilized in their nuclear enterprises and to take steps to denuclearize.

The declaration was signed on July 16 by more than 200 experts from across the globe and set forth a vision of AI guardrails to prevent this technological development from becoming a new area of strategic competition.

SMALL GROUP OF DEMOCRATS HELP SPEAKER JOHNSON CLEAR DEFENSE BILL

Congress’s work on the annual defense authorization bill (NDAA) cleared a major hurdle in the House last week. The House entered its Independence Day recess without a clear timeline for passage after hardline conservatives initially tanked the bill, a highly unusual initial failure. The Senate also stalled as Senators could not even clear a procedural hurdle to consider the NDAA.

Last week, House momentum shifted, and lawmakers were able to first clear the procedural rule and, ultimately, the bill. The NDAA traditionally enjoys broad bipartisan support. Recently, House Republican leadership has added controversial culture war provisions and other unrelated policies to the NDAA, largely turning this bill into another partisan exercise. This year, a main point of contention was the decision to incorporate the controversial Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act into the NDAA before it was transmitted to the Senate.

The final vote in the House was 216-212 on July 22. Lawmakers mostly voted along party lines, with Democrats overwhelmingly voting against the measure, citing their objections to the war in Iran, the inclusion of the above-mentioned voting legislation and other toxic provisions that are unlikely to survive the Senate.

Seven Republicans again voted against the NDAA, and its passage was far from assured. Six Democrats broke with the rest of the conference, likely due to political considerations ahead of the midterms, and saved the bill. Those Democrats are Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-01), Jared Golden (D-Maine-02), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX-34), Adam Gray (D-CA-13) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA-03).

The NDAA’s future remains uncertain, but the Senate may try to take it up before Senators head to their states for the August recess. The House has already left town through mid-September.

The Center has produced analysis of both NDAAs: House | Senate.

In his latest post for the Center’s Nukes of Hazard blog, Senior Policy Director John Erath argues that the threats addressed in the President’s Budget Request and subsequent NDAA are not the ones actually facing the country.

“The NDAA’s heavy emphasis on nuclear weapons runs contrary to the lessons we should be learning from 21st century conflicts.”

HOUSE BARELY CLEARS THIRD RECONCILIATION BILL

The House of Representatives narrowly passed a $95 billion budget reconciliation bill on July 22 by a vote of 216-214. All Democrats opposed the measure, along with Republican Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY-04) and Warren Davidson (R-OH-08) and Independent Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-CA-03). A majority of the $95 billion would be used to cover costs associated with the Iran war, with a small portion allotted for agricultural aid and some provisions of the SAVE Act.

Democrats are uniformly opposed to President Trump’s ongoing war in Iran, so the reconciliation bill faces stiff headwinds in the Senate where it requires the support of eight Democratic Senators to break a filibuster.

CANDIDATE SUMMER STAYS HOT

Council for a Livable World stayed active in July, despite a major heat wave that swept our nation’s capital and much of the East Coast. As we look ahead to November, our work has not slowed on the candidate front. We recently endorsed former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Zach Dembo (D-KY-06), both of whom have a strong chance to flip party control of their respective seats.

Sherrod Brown has a long history standing up for better foreign policy and for his community in Ohio. He fights for working families in Ohio and across the country and has a real opportunity to oust appointed incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R). This election is to finish the remainder of Vice President Vance’s term. The winner will have to run again in 2028.

Zach Dembo plans to flip this open Kentucky seat. The current incumbent, Rep. Andy Barr (R), is running to replace outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R). Dembo is a former Navy JAG lawyer and federal prosecutor who departed the Department of Justice in 2025 due to politicization of the work. He has effectively tied this administration’s foreign policy failures to pain being felt by the bourbon and horse industries which are major economic drivers in this district.

Consider supporting Council-endorsed candidates today and help us shape the leadership in the next Congress.

For the next 3 months, we’ll list all of our endorsed candidates at the bottom of this newsletter along with their bios and donation links. If you’d like to donate to more than one House candidate or more than one Senate candidate, or donate to one or more candidates in each chamber, bookmark these links, which we’ll update through November every time we make a new endorsement: all endorsed House candidates | all endorsed Senate candidates | all endorsed candidates.

CONSIDER BECOMING A MONTHLY DONOR

As election season nears, the Council is also hard at work on its advocacy on Capitol Hill. Have you considered making a monthly donation to support our efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear threats through political action? You can donate as little as $1 a month. Become a monthly supporter today!

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