For a PDF version of this chart, please click here.
Notes:
- “Experts” are in order: Cook Political Report, Sabato Crystal Ball, and Rothenberg Political Report 10/5.
- A candidate or incumbent is listed only if his/her funds on hand reported to FEC 9/30 was more than $250,000.
In several cases the CLW notes column references additional significant candidates.
Endorsers are drawn from the following list. Click on organization name to view its website, click on a candidate’s endorser (eg “CLW” following candidate Feingold) to see what the endorser says about him/her.
- CLW (Council for a Livable World) – arms control and foreign policy
- Emily’s List – women’s issues
- J Street – balanced Israel-Palestine policy
- LCV (League of Conservation Voters) and SC (Sierra Club), – environmental issues. These two have not yet made endorsements.
A candidate’s name, if underlined, provides a link to information Vote Smart provides about him/her. This is a new and valuable feature of the chart – see discussion following the chart.
|
State |
Primary |
Expert Forecast for Senate Seat |
Candidates |
Candidate Funds on Hand (in millions of $) |
Endorsers |
Notes provided by the Council for a Livable World’s John Isaacs |
|
AK |
August 16 |
likely, safe, safe |
Lisa Murkowski (I) |
2.91 |
Alaska: One of the major upsets in 2010 was Senator Lisa Murkowski’s primary loss to Tea Party candidate Joe Miller. Even more amazing, Murkowski came back to win as a write in candidate. She should have an easier run this time. |
|
|
AZ |
August 30 |
likely, lean, lean |
John McCain (I) |
4.96 |
Arizona: Democrats hope for a surprise in the Grand Canyon state. U.S. Representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is a tough campaigner who has been elected in a swing district in 2009 and 2013 and has high name recognition. Her argument is that Arizonians are tired of an out-of-touch incumbent Senator John McCain, who has served five terms. McCain first will face primary opposition, but it is not clear how formidable that challenge is. State Senator Kelli Ward is running, but is not considered to be a strong candidate. |
|
|
0.77 |
||||||
|
CA |
June 7 |
likely, safe, |
Loretta Sanchez | 1.56 |
California: There is change coming to California after Sen. Barbara Boxer announced her retirement. With the state firmly in Democratic hands, a Democrat is expected to emerge as the winner. Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris is the front-runner for the nomination but she is being challenged by U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez. The top two finishers in the state’s “jungle primary” will run in November regardless of party. |
|
|
3.33 |
Emily | |||||
|
CO |
June |
lean, lean, |
5.39 |
Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennett won his first Senate election in 2010 with the assistance of the Republican Party nominating a weak candidate. At this point, Republicans have again failed to come up with a strong challenger in this election even though Cory Gardner (R) defeated Sen. Mark Udall (D) in 2014. |
||
|
FL |
August 30 |
tossup, tossup, tossup |
Marco Rubio |
Florida: There is no looking back for Senator Marco Rubio (R), who is running for President rather than re-election. Both parties face primaries in a purple state where there is no clear-cut favorite. Democrats have a contest between moderate U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy against the erratic and outspoken U.S. Alan Grayson. Republicans face at least a three-way primary: U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, backed by a number of conservative groups, the more moderate U.S. Rep. David Jolly and Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, backed by Rubio. Florida is a swing state for President and should be for Senator as well. |
||
|
2.46 |
||||||
|
Mike Haridopolos |
1.00 |
|||||
|
Todd Wilcox |
0.68 |
|||||
|
David Jolly |
0.47 |
|||||
|
Carlos Lopez-Cantera |
0.38 |
|||||
|
3.48 |
||||||
|
0.25 |
||||||
|
GA |
May |
likely, safe, likely |
Johnny Isakson (I) |
5.39 |
Georgia: Democrats had hopes of picking up a Republican Senate seat in 2014 with Michelle Nunn, but did not succeed. Incumbent Senator Johnny Isakson should sweep to a third term. |
|
|
IL |
March |
tossup, lean, tilt |
Mark Kirk (I) |
3.63 |
Illinois: Incumbent Senator Mark Kirk (R) is considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the Senate. He has lingering health problems and has committed a series of gaffes. Even some Republicans have questioned whether Kirk should run for re-election. The favorite for the Democratic nomination and general election is U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth. First, she will have to overcome a stiff challenge from Andrea Zopp, former CEO & President of the Chicago Urban League, who is raising sufficient funds to be competitive. |
|
|
Andrea Zopp |
0.82 |
|||||
|
2.85 |
CLW |
|||||
|
IN |
May |
likely, likely, likely |
Eric Holcomb |
0.30 |
Indiana: Senator Dan Coats (R) is retiring after one term. Republicans are favored to hold the seat but face a primary between Coats’ former chief of staff and former state party chair, Eric Holcomb, the conservative favorite, U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman and U.S. Rep Todd Young, more favored by the national GOP establishment. Former U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, a moderate, is hoping to steal a Republican seat the way that Sen. Joe Donnelly did in 2012. |
|
|
Baron Hill |
0.29 |
|||||
|
Todd Young |
2.25 | |||||
|
LA |
Oct 24 2015 |
safe, likely, |
David Vitter (I) |
Louisiana: Incumbent Senator David Vitter (R) is running for governor this November. If he wins, he will appoint a successor who is likely to run for a full term in November 2016. Democrats in the state are floundering. |
||
|
MD |
April 26 |
solid, safe |
0.37 |
Emily |
Maryland: Maryland: The decision by Sen. Barbara Mikulski to retire has opened the first Senate seat in Maryland in many years. U.S. Representatives Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards are competing for the nomination, although other Democratic candidates may still enter the race. The primary winner is almost assured of being the general election winner. |
|
|
4.13 |
||||||
|
MO |
August |
likely, likely, |
Roy Blunt (I) |
4.37 |
Missouri: While Missouri naturally favors Republicans, Democrats have come up with a strong candidate in Jason Kander, a 34-year old military veteran and state Secretary of State. Kander is an aggressive fundraiser. Incumbent Senator Roy Blunt is favored, but his ratings in the state are mediocre. |
|
|
1.55 |
||||||
|
NV |
June |
tossup, tossup, tossup |
2.29 |
Nevada: This Senate contest looks like a clear toss-up. With Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid retiring after five terms, the field looks to be settled. Reid and the Democratic Party are rallying around former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. U.S. Rep. Joe Heck is the presumptive Republican nominee. This election will go down to the wire. |
||
|
Catherine Cortez-Masto |
1.51 |
|||||
|
NH |
Sept |
tossup, tossup, tossup |
Kelly Ayotte (I) | 5.07 |
New Hampshire: In October 2015, Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan announced she will challenge Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). This is a toss-up contest. Outside GOP groups have spent heavily to undermine Hassan’s enormous popularity |
|
|
Maggie Hassan |
No FEC Filing Yet |
|||||
|
NC |
May |
lean, likely, lean |
Richard Burr (I) |
4.75 |
North Carolina: Democrats had hoped to convince former U.S. Senator Kay Hagan, who lost a close race in 2014, to challenge incumbent Senator Richard Burr (R). Hagan declined, but several other candidates are considering the race, including former Washington quarterback and U.S. Representative Heath Schuler. Burr is favored for a third term, but Democrats hope to make a contest of it. |
|
|
OH |
March 15 |
lean, lean, lean |
Rob Portman (I) |
11.10 |
Ohio: The low-key Senator Rob Portman (R) is running for re-election. Several surveys have shown the incumbent to be running behind former Governor Ted Strickland, who lost a close battle for re-election to Gov. John Kasich in 2010. Portman has socked away a huge amount of campaign funds, which combined with many superpacs attacking Strickland, is being used in an attempt to bring the challenger down a peg. First, however, Strickland will have to overcome a primary challenge from a much younger Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld. |
|
|
0.78 |
||||||
|
Ted Strickland |
1.52 |
|||||
|
PA |
May |
lean, lean, tilt |
Pat Toomey (I) |
8.60 |
Pennsylvania: In 2010, a good year for Republicans, Senator Pat Toomey (R) won a close election against U.S. Representative Joe Sestak (D). Sestak is back for a second run at the seat in a year that should be much better for Democrats. First, however, he will have to overcome a challenge from Katie McGinty, former chief of staff to Gov. Tom Wolf, who is backed by much of the Democratic establishment that is uncomfortable with the very independent Sestak. Sestak is the favorite in the primary, and a slight underdog in the general election. |
|
|
0.89 |
Emily | |||||
|
Joe Sestak |
2.17 |
|||||
|
WI |
August |
tossup, lean tossup |
Ron Johnson (I) |
3.54 |
Wisconsin: Democrats are slightly favored to retake this seat, with former Senator Russ Feingold (D) challenging the person who beat him in 2010, Sen. Ron Johnson (R). Several polls show the challenger in the lead, unusual against an incumbent. Johnson has made little impression in the state. Having largely self-funded in 2010, his campaign treasury is only slightly larger than Feingold’s. If Feingold is successful, it will be first time that a defeat Senator has come back to beat the previous winner since 1934. |
|
|
Russ Feingold |
3.38 |
CLW, |
This document includes links to Vote Smart, a nonpartisan organization that provides facts about current officials and candidates for political office. The links to their website are for informational purposes and do not associate Vote Smart to any above-stated opinions.
Vote Smart votesmart.org is a treasure chest of information about many of the candidates in this chart. Vote Smart presents to a candidate a “Political Courage Test” – a questionnaire asking for his/her position on a range of issues. Unfortunately, in recent years candidates are increasingly unwilling to respond to this test. So Vote Smart’s website now presents what it thinks a candidate’s answers would have been, based on Vote Smart’s analysis of the candidate’s past statements and votes. The links in our chart take one directly to this section.
Far more information is readily accessed from this Vote Smart section, including the candidate’s biography, voting record, copies of speeches and statements, and funding. In addition, Vote Smart provides a huge nicely-organized table showing ratings and endorsements of the candidate by a wide range of organizations – an excellent way to explore evaluations of the candidate by organizations that share particular concerns the reader may have.
