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The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation is the Council’s affiliated 501(c)(3) research organization. |
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UNCERTAIN U.S. SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE RENEWS DETERRENCE DEBATE IN EUROPE On the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion at the end of February, Senior Policy Director John Erath wrote a post in the Center’s Nukes of Hazard blog explaining why forcing a ceasefire goes against U.S. national interests and assumes Ukraine is in a much weaker position than it actually is. Unfortunately, no one in the White House appears to have read our blog. In an explosive White House press conference at the end of February, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for allegedly not showing his gratitude for U.S. support throughout the war — a meeting we were quick to condemn. Following the press conference, the United States stopped military aid to Ukraine then started it again, confusing leaders across Europe and provoking renewed debate about deterrence. |
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CONGRESS AVERTS SHUTDOWN BUT TAKES MONEY AWAY FROM NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS Congress successfully averted a government shutdown last week. The continuing resolution (CR), which keeps the government funded through the end of the fiscal year, was billed as a clean extension. Our analysis tells a slightly different story. Apart from a $6 billion increase to Pentagon spending overall, the CR also included an extremely ill-advised shift of $185 million from non-proliferation to defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration. Non-proliferation programs at the NNSA, along with the Stockpile Stewardship Program, are critical non-weapons components of U.S. nuclear security. Some key functions of these programs include:
Council for a Livable World remains engaged to ensure these programs are adequately funded in the next fiscal year and are not pillaged in a misguided attempt at efficiency. |
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NO PROGRESS BETWEEN UNITED STATES AND IRAN Prospects for a new Iran nuclear deal remain remote following a letter sent by President Donald Trump to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei which, although not yet public, reportedly included a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal. The details of such a deadline remain unclear, but the threat of military intervention by the United States remains present. Controversially, Russia has offered to serve as mediator between the United States and Iran as the two countries try to find a path forward. The Center’s latest Nukes of Hazard podcast episode, out last month, addresses past diplomacy related to Iran’s nuclear program and ways to move forward. Nukes of Hazard is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, or you can listen online now. |
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REPORT FINDS CHINA MIGHT DOUBLE ITS OPERATIONAL ARSENAL WITHIN FIVE YEARS In early March, the Federation of American Scientists released its annual assessment of Chinese nuclear capabilities. The report concluded that China has made significant progress in expanding its nuclear arsenal and estimated that it may double its number of operational warheads by 2030. On March 14, China hosted a high-level meeting with Russia and Iran to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, demonstrating Beijing’s efforts to play a more central role in shaping nuclear diplomacy. Later in the month, China conducted coordinated naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean alongside Russia and Iran following Tehran’s rejection of nuclear negotiations with the United States. |
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COUNCIL STAFF HELP DROP OFF NUCLEAR WAR BOOK TO EVERY MEMBER OF CONGRESS
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CONGRESS BEGINS HEARING BUDGET PRIORITIES; WE’RE READY TO PUSH BACK ON BAD POLICIES Congress has begun what is known as “posture season” during which top-level administration officials discuss their budget priorities for the upcoming fiscal year. All of this is happening as the government operates under a continuing resolution and before the President’s Budget Request has been released, which is typical in the first year of an administration. Council for a Livable World has been hard at work providing draft questions to congressional staff for these posture hearings as well as nomination hearings. As a reminder, the position of NNSA Administrator has not yet been filled although former New York Congressman Brandon Williams was nominated. We have also worked with congressional partners to submit language to the National Defense Authorization Act to ensure proper oversight over nuclear weapons and to push back and guard against bad policy. |
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DOGE CUTS AT NNSA COMPROMISE NUCLEAR SECURITY BUT THERE ARE DEFENSE SPENDING CUTS THAT WOULD MAKE US ALL SAFER Last month’s newsletter described the chaos of firing and rehiring National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) staff as part of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) effort to “streamline” government functions. More information has surfaced about who exactly was fired and the gaps this leaves for nuclear and national security. The NNSA has struggled with understaffing for years. The agency had made gains in recent years to fill important gaps. However, more than 150 NNSA employees either took the Trump administration’s buyout offer or were caught up in the DOGE firings and not rehired. That reversed any staffing gains that had been achieved. While we are not supportive of all the programs NNSA is involved in — most notably the ill-advised resumption of plutonium pit production — chaotic firing of scientists and career experts on nuclear safety decreases all our security. According to news reports, DOGE cuts at NNSA have caused departures of engineers, project analysts, lawyers and other key staff who ensure our nuclear weapons, while we still have them, are safe, secure and reliable. Political Director Connor Murray discusses ways DOGE could actually make significant cuts in spending that would make us all safer in a new video. |
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NEW DEVELOPMENTS ALREADY SHAPING 2026 RACES It may seem as though the 2024 election is just behind us but there is already plenty to report on the 2026 midterms. The House of Representatives is up for grabs by either party again as Republicans hold one of the slimmest majorities in U.S. history. In fact, special elections to fill vacancies could flip control of the chamber, though Republicans are heavily favored to maintain control. Senate Republicans, who have a 53-47 majority, are favored to remain in the majority even after 2026. Three Senate Democrats have already announced they will not run again: Sen. Gary Peters (MI), Sen. Tina Smith (MN) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (NH). Council for a Livable World is proud to have endorsed all three in the past but their retirements set up competitive races for open seats. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried New Hampshire and Minnesota while President Trump narrowly won Michigan. It is important to remember that midterm elections are often seen as a referendum on the President’s party. Coupled with high levels of dissatisfaction and motivation, there could be some significant results in both congressional chambers in 2026. |
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CONSIDER BECOMING A MONTHLY DONOR As election season continues, the Council is also hard at work on its advocacy on Capitol Hill. Have you considered making a monthly donation to support our efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear threats through political action? You can donate as little as $1 a month. Become a monthly supporter today! |
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