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RUSSIA, UKRAINE MEET IN PERSON, EXCHANGE PRISONERS, DON’T REACH CEASEFIRE OR PEACE DEAL On May 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a new nuclear threat as he answered a question about Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory in the days leading up to Moscow’s Victory Day parade. Putin stated, “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons … and I hope they will not be required.” This warning joins the ever-growing collection of nuclear threats that Putin has issued since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to deter support from allies and raise the stakes of the war, but as Senior Policy Director John Erath wrote last year, similar Russian threats are common for this time of year. Russian and Ukrainian officials met briefly at a relatively junior level on May 16 in Turkey following days of confusion, frustration and back-and-forth over the talks. Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners in the largest prisoner swap in the war, but any progress toward a ceasefire or wider peace deal remains out of reach. Following Friday’s unsuccessful talks, President Trump and Putin are set to have a call today, May 19, against a backdrop of Russia’s largest drone strike of the war against Ukraine on Sunday. |
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IRAN, UNITED STATES MIGHT SOON REACH NEW NUCLEAR DEAL Four rounds of bilateral talks on the Iranian nuclear program have now taken place between the United States and Iran, with mediation from Oman. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei characterized the most recent round held on May 11 as “difficult but useful” with U.S. officials sharing similarly positive impressions. On Thursday, following his Gulf tour, President Trump shared that “Washington is ‘very close’ to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran after Tehran ‘sort of’ agreed to its terms.” Similarly, Iranian nuclear advisor Ali Shamkhani indicated that Iran might be ready to sign a deal with the United States although the question of uranium enrichment continues to serve as an inflammatory sticking point. The United States, which had previously indicated flexibility on low levels of enrichment for civilian purposes, has now backtracked, with Envoy Steve Witkoff sharing that the United States “cannot allow even 1% of enrichment capability.” Many suspect that the next round of negotiations will be held this coming weekend with enrichment as a top item on the agenda. Meanwhile, Iran held nuclear talks with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany in Turkey on Friday. |
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INDIA/PAKISTAN TENSIONS ESCALATE BEFORE A CEASEFIRE, BUT A SIGH OF RELIEF IS PREMATURE Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated dramatically in early May after an Indian cross-border strike destroyed a suspected militant training facility in Pakistan. India claimed the target was used to coordinate recent attacks in Kashmir, while Pakistan denounced the strike as a violation of sovereignty. Over the following days, both sides engaged in limited retaliatory strikes, leading to widespread alarm about possible escalation. Amid mounting international pressure, including from the United States and Gulf states, a ceasefire agreement was brokered on May 10. The deal, facilitated in part by high-level backchannel diplomacy, halted further strikes and committed both sides to reinvigorating crisis communication channels and nuclear confidence-building measures. However, sporadic violations have been reported in the ceasefire’s wake. In his recent article for The National Interest, Research Analyst Shawn Rostker argues that the India–Pakistan crisis demands focused U.S. diplomatic engagement not just to prevent escalation, but to reinforce America’s strategic credibility and protect its stated security priorities in the Indo-Pacific region. He warns that further conflict would distract India from its role in countering China and risks deepening U.S.–China tensions. Rostker argues that what is needed from the administration is measured but decisive diplomacy that preserves stability in South Asia while protecting the nation’s broader Indo-Pacific objectives. In a Nukes of Hazard blog post drafted in the wake of the ceasefire agreement, Senior Policy Director John Erath explains why the lesson should not be that India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons deterred each other and therefore deterrence will continue preventing nuclear war. “The best that can be relied upon from deterrence is that it can create additional space for diplomacy, not replace it.” Despite the ceasefire, the risk of nuclear war is not over, as Erath told the BBC. “When nuclear weapons can be involved, there is always an unacceptable level of danger…[W]ith nuclear weapons, even a small risk is too large.” More about India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and the history of conflict between the two. |
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CHINA AND RUSSIA PLEDGE COORDINATED RESPONSE AGAINST U.S. ‘PRESSURE’ In late April, Chinese scientists published a paper revealing that China had tested a non-nuclear hydrogen bomb prototype. The experiment, conducted under laboratory conditions, was designed to simulate aspects of a thermonuclear explosion without using fissile material, and was described as being “more akin to napalm or a thermobaric weapon than a nuclear weapon.” On May 1, China’s top diplomat voiced support for Iran’s nuclear diplomacy efforts just ahead of renewed U.S.-Iran talks. Speaking in Beijing, he emphasized that diplomatic engagement, not pressure, is the only path toward resolving Iran’s nuclear pursuit. Later in the month, China and Russia issued a joint statement accusing the United States of raising the risk of nuclear war through its various alliance structures and missile deployments, a rather shopworn refrain. The statement, released during a meeting of the two countries’ top national security officials, pledged coordinated responses to what they described as “external military pressure.” |
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U.S. COMPANIES INADVERTANTLY FEED NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM On April 26, North Korean state media reported that Kim Jong Un attended the launch ceremony of a new multi-purpose destroyer, which North Korean officials claimed will enhance the country’s naval strike capabilities and serve as a platform for future missile integration. Later, in early May, North Korea launched several short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast, followed by a live-fire drill personally overseen by Kim. State media said the exercise was meant to demonstrate “nuclear force readiness” amid escalating tensions with the United States. Notably, Pyongyang also acknowledged publicly for the first time what the rest of the world has known for months: that North Korean troops are fighting in Ukraine. Fresh reporting also revealed that North Korean IT workers have covertly secured employment at major Western tech firms, including multiple Fortune 500 organizations, by posing as remote freelancers. According to U.S. officials, these workers have funneled millions of dollars in earnings back to the regime, helping finance its nuclear and missile programs. |
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DOUBTS CONCERNING AMERICA’S RELIABILITY SHOULD NOT LEAD TO A EUROPEAN NUCLEAR DETERRENT Center Research Analyst Connor Murray and Scoville Peace Fellow Marlena Broeker took on the current debate over a possible European nuclear deterrent to replace U.S.-led NATO nuclear sharing. In their co-authored piece in Just Security, Murray and Broeker argue that regardless of any debate over U.S. reliability, a European deterrent is both inadvisable and infeasible. Pursuing a European deterrent would incur untenable political, scientific, social and monetary costs and increase nuclear danger and competition rather than lower it. “There are too many nuclear weapons in Europe already… U.S. (and NATO) policy priority should be to create conditions that will lead to a reduction in the number of nuclear weapons.” |
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REQUIESCAT IN PACE The world lost an advocate for peace when Pope Francis died April 21. The late Pope made headlines when he visited Hiroshima in 2019 and called for governments to prioritize social justice over nuclear weapons. Senior Policy Director John Erath looks at Pope Francis’ legacy in a Nukes of Hazard post. |
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THE FIRST LOOK AT TRUMP’S 2026 BUDGET: $1T ON DEFENSE BUT CUTS FOR DIPLOMACY AND AID The Trump administration released an initial overview of its budget for fiscal year 2026 (FY 2026) at the beginning of the month, referred to as a “skinny” budget in Washington. The largely political document is “skinny” on detail but gives us a good idea of this administration’s plans. President Trump’s budget would cut $163 billion from non-defense discretionary spending, a near 23% reduction. He would increase national security spending to $1.01 trillion for the next fiscal year, including the $150 billion allocated via the still elusive reconciliation bill. There is also significant funding for the so-called “Golden Dome” national missile defense system, nuclear weapons modernization and an expansion of naval shipbuilding. The State Department and international development budgets, in contrast, would be slashed by a staggering 84%, with most of the “savings” deriving from not contributing to the UN and other international organizations. It is unclear how the budget will circumvent treaty obligations requiring some contributions. It is important to remember that the budget request is largely a political document, and Congress will work to craft the actual spending for FY 2026. To date, Congress has been very cautious pushing back against President Trump and it remains to be seen how much legislative leaders will push back this time. |
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TAKE ACTION: URGE YOUR REPRESENTATIVE TO CO-SPONSOR CRITICAL LEGISLATION WITH THREE CLICKS Last month, Council champion Jim McGovern (MA-02) and Congresswoman Jill Tokuda (HI-02) introduced H. Res. 317 to urge the United States, and the Trump administration, to return to the negotiating table on nuclear disarmament and to lead a global effort to reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons. Council Executive Director John Tierney shared the following words with its sponsors as part of Council for a Livable World’s support for the resolution: “At a time of increased tensions around the world, we cannot risk letting nuclear threats increase. We urge Members to support this legislation and all efforts to reduce nuclear tensions in favor of foreign and national security that will address the issues we face rather than bring us to the precipice of confrontation and waste billions of taxpayer dollars in the process.” You can help by promoting this legislation and urging your Representative to sign on as a co-sponsor. Just three clicks can send this critical email. |
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IT’S ALMOST TIME TO START CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENTS Council staff recently completed work on the questionnaire that will be sent to candidates seeking our endorsement in 2026. In addition to helping us find qualified candidates, the questionnaire provides an opportunity to educate those running for Congress on our issues. The questionnaire covers a broad range of Council issues including, but not limited to:
Many candidates running for Congress have not dealt with national security issues before and may not yet know much about nuclear weapons. Through our endorsement process, Council for a Livable World supports candidates in many ways, including through education. |
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THE LOOK AHEAD: 2026 SENATE ELECTIONS Speaking of candidates, next year, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election, including two special elections in Ohio and Florida to replace Senators elected/appointed to higher offices. Retirements on both sides of the aisle means there will be new blood in the next Senate, regardless of which party is in the majority. Republicans currently hold a somewhat comfortable majority and based on the election map, it will be difficult for Democrats to change that. While we may not yet be able to predict much the outcome of the elections, knowing the landscape in which we’ll be operating informs our critical electoral work for the next 18 months through November 2026. Read more: An Early Look at the 2026 Senate Elections. |
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CONSIDER BECOMING A MONTHLY DONOR As election season nears, the Council is also hard at work on its advocacy on Capitol Hill. Have you considered making a monthly donation to support our efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear threats through political action? You can donate as little as $1 a month. Become a monthly supporter today! |
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