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NORTH KOREAN TROOPS IN UKRAINE SETS A ‘DISTURBING PRECEDENT’ FOR NORTHEAST ASIA American officials now estimate that North Korea has sent 10,000 troops to aid Russia in the war in Ukraine. In an article for 38 North, Senior Policy Director John Erath lays out potential motives and outcomes in this new chapter of Russia’s relationship with North Korea. Erath notes that Russia has long based its military strategy on being able to absorb more casualties than its adversaries and Moscow’s decision to employ foreign troops in the war could speak to a level of desperation to maintain this tactic as casualties mount. Erath also remarks on the importance of considering what North Korea is interested in gaining from sending its soldiers to die in Ukraine, particularly the possibility of “receiving more advanced military technology from Russia as payment for North Korean lives.” With Russia’s use of nuclear threats throughout the war and their involvement of a nuclear-armed North Korea, these are worrying signs of a “disturbing precedent for nuclear-aided aggression that could be repeated in Northeast Asia.” Meanwhile, Erath traveled to Seoul, South Korea, and wrote about how his trip was an important opportunity to understand how Koreans view nuclear issues outside of the Washington-centric viewpoint. Particularly, Erath saw how having North Korea directly on its border influences every security calculation for the South Korea and how this can be seen as the ever more serious internal debate over whether South Korea should acquire its own nuclear weapons. As South Korea weighs its options, Erath writes, “It is important to consider U.S. nuclear capabilities as a means to an end, rather than the solution to Korean security… the issue is not simply North Korean nuclear weapons, but the overall threat of North Korean hostility.” |
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IRAN ALLOWS INTERNATIONAL INSPECTORS TO VISIT NUCLEAR SITES Amid renewed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program due to heightened tensions with nuclear-armed Israel, Iran permitted International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi to visit Natanz and Fordo enrichment plants on November 15. The Center’s Paul A. Castleman Policy Fellow Samuel Hickey told Agence France-Presse that allowing the visits, particularly Fordo which is “among Iran’s most proliferation-sensitive sites,” is a signal from Iran “that the easiest access to these facilities is through diplomatic engagement.” After the unilateral U.S. exit from the Iran deal in 2018, negotiators have struggled to bring Iran and the United States back to the bargaining table, and reduced access to Iran’s nuclear facilities following the U.S. withdrawal has only fueled fears over Iran’s nuclear activities. |
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CHINA SET TO INCREASE NUCLEAR SAFETY OVERSIGHT; WE MUSN’T MISINTERPRET MILITARY MISHAPS AS WEAKNESS Days ago, China unveiled a prototype nuclear reactor designed to power its next-generation aircraft carriers, potentially marking a significant advancement in its maritime capabilities. The reactor could allow Chinese carriers to operate longer and without refueling, enhancing their strategic reach into the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, the Office of Legal Affairs at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) met with a Chinese delegation in late October at the request of Beijing. According to the IAEA, China is set to strengthen its nuclear legal framework through cooperation by refining regulatory standards and bolstering legal oversight in nuclear safety. Meanwhile, Research Analyst Shawn Rostker writes in Asia Times that recent military mishaps like waterlogged missiles and a sinking submarine should not be mistaken for strategic weakness. “Such interpretations often reflect a lack of holistic understanding of China’s strategic priorities and long-term goals. Corruption, for example, while problematic for internal military governance, does not inherently translate into an inability to manage or deploy nuclear forces. Similarly, inefficiencies in the DIB may slow aspects of China’s broader military modernization, but they don’t undermine the strategic importance of China’s nuclear arsenal in the eyes of Chinese Communist Party leaders. Misreading these signals could lead U.S. policymakers to misunderstand China’s actual capabilities and motivations, thereby diverting focus from more important objectives like risk reduction and transparency.” |
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INDIA ENHANCES NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES In mid-October, India launched its fourth nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. This addition to India’s nuclear triad theoretically enhances its second-strike capability, but delays have emerged in other defense acquisitions, including the S-400 air defense system and a nuclear attack submarine from Russia. In a welcome surprise, it was announced last month that India has revised its border patrol agreements with China along the Line of Actual Control. However, it remains to be seen how impactful this revised agreement will prove to be or if it will produce a fundamental de-escalation of hostilities. Research Analyst Shawn Rostker had made this recommendation among others in an op-ed for The Diplomat in August. |
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PAKISTAN FACING RENEWED INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY Islamabad’s nuclear and missile initiatives have come under renewed international scrutiny. These curbs have intensified Pakistan’s diplomatic responses, including a strong stance against any fissile material ban, which Pakistan, fronting for China, argues would disproportionately impact its security interests. In response to these restrictions, Pakistan has underscored its stance on maintaining strategic autonomy while continuing to develop its defense capabilities. This diplomatic positioning reflects ongoing challenges in balancing national defense imperatives with international pressure on non-proliferation. |
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POST-ELECTION CHALLENGES It is clear now that the Republican Party will control both chambers of Congress in addition to President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In the Senate, Republicans are almost certain to control 53 seats while Democrats and Democrat-aligned independents will control 47. In the House, the final margins are still unclear as some states continue to count ballots. What is clear is that Republicans could control as many as 222 seats to Democrats’ 213. The last two years showed us that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who will retain his position, often struggled with disunity in his own conference. That disunity may continue if he pushes back on demands from the far-right portions of the party who will be emboldened by President-elect Trump’s victory. It remains to be seen whether the House will be able to be more productive in the 119th Congress. As a nonpartisan organization, Council for a Livable World stands ready to work with whomever is willing to promote our mission. That said, it is clear that making progress on nuclear weapons policy will continue to be a challenge, one that may be more important than ever. We will continue our work both in the halls of Congress and on the campaign trail to ensure that more elected officials are informed and ready to enact better nuclear weapons policy. We’ve laid out nine goals for the new Trump-Vance administration and Congress, including reinforcing alliances, holding the Pentagon accountable and maintaining the global taboo on explosive nuclear testing. |
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TRUMP NAMES PICKS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY, FOREIGN POLICY ROLES This week, rumors and announcements have shown an emphasis on national security roles in a second Trump administration. The people announced to fill key roles in the administration so far indicate that the foreign policy will focus on competition with China and transactional diplomacy. While this may be concerning in a number of policy areas, it could be promising as it relates to continued support for Ukraine. The following appointments have been announced to date:
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RECOUNT TRIGGERED IN PENNSYLVANIA The Senate race in Pennsylvania is slated for a legally mandated statewide recount. While the Associated Press has called the race in favor of Republican challenger David McCormick, other outlets, including The New York Times, NBC and CNN have not yet called the race and Council-endorsed Sen. Bob Casey has not yet conceded. Sen. Casey’s team says there are still roughly 100,000 votes to count, many of which are provisional ballots, which are votes that were cast but not immediately counted while election officials determine whether the voter was eligible to vote. It remains unlikely that the outcome of this race will change, but it is worth noting that some uncertainty remains. You can see the full list of our winning candidates at the bottom of this email. |
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CONSIDER BECOMING A MONTHLY DONOR As election season continues, the Council is also hard at work on its advocacy on Capitol Hill. Have you considered making a monthly donation to support our efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear threats through political action? You can donate as little as $1 a month. Become a monthly supporter today! |
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2024 WINNING CANDIDATES SENATE:
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