Council for a Livable World

A new independent poll in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Shays (R) with a ten point lead over CLW-endorsed Jim Himes: A Sacred Heart Univ.WSHU-FM poll; conducted 9/22-25; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Chris Shays…

Democrats currently hold a 51 – 49 majority in the U.S. Senate, with the 51st vote being that very independent (read turning Republican) Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

Senate rules, however, frequently require 60 votes to prevail on controversial issues, from health care to minimum wage to the Iraq war.  This high threshold has frustrated Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

A still higher threshold is required for the Senate to give its advice and consent to treaties — just say, for example, a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty or a treaty to reduce significantly the number of nuclear weapons.  Both are goals ardently desired for action in the next Administration by those who focus on nuclear weapons .

With the sour atmosphere facing the country, Republicans knew that in this election they faced losses.

Now those losses may get even greater than expected.

Political guru Stuart Rothenberg, writing in the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call [subscription required], suddenly finds a 60-vote Democratic majority a real possibility.

He wrote on October 6: “The outlook in Senate races continues to deteriorate for Republicans, with Democratic gains at least in the high single digits increasingly likely.”

Rothenberg now finds a 60-vote Democratic majority turning from distant mirage to Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) reality.

Rothenberg continues:  “Virginia and New Mexico are already gone, and Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon aren’t far behind. Add in North Carolina, and Democrats are plus-seven (and at 58 seats) without Minnesota or Mississippi, which are up for grabs. “

And he added to this count the unexpected possibilities of Democrats grabbing upsets in both Kentucky and Georgia.

For more on current poling, check out Council for a Livable World’s constantly updated list of polls:
Full polling data is here.

Who would have thunk it. The October 7 debate was the town hall format in which John McCain was supposed to shine. The Vice Presidential debate last week set a bar so low that Gov. Sarah Palin was sure to exceed it. The first presidential debate cou…

The recently passed financial bailout package has drawn the ire of citizens throughout the United States. Both conservatives and liberals have condemned Congress and the White House for rescuing Wall Street titans, who caused the economic death spiral in the first place, by transferring an enormous fiscal burden to middle- and working-class taxpayers. At a time when people are losing their homes and struggling to make ends meet, many Americans find the bailout’s $700 billion price tag to be simply outrageous.

What many Americans may not realize is that the United States is likely to spend $711 billion on national defense in the fiscal year that began on October 1, 2008 (assuming fiscal year 2009 war costs are $170 billion, an estimate provided by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates). You read that correctly: the United States will spend more on defense over the next 365 days than on the $700 bailout package.

This graph compares estimated U.S. defense spending in fiscal year (FY) 2009 to the bailout, previous U.S. conflicts, and other federal spending priorities. Click on it to see the full-size version.

Two polls out today show Council endorsed candidates with solid leads in Minnesota and New York.  

The New York poll:
Eric Massa (D): 47
Rep. Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

Massa nearly won against Kuhl with little support from outside the district in 2006.  This year he is receiving significant support from the national party, and Kuhl is not running a vigorous campaign.  In fact, Kuhl is currently refusing to debate Massa.  When an incumbent refuses to debate, that’s a sure sign their campaign is in trouble.

Learn more about Eric Massa here.

The Minnesota poll:
Ashwin Madia (D): 44
Erik Paulsen (R): 39
David Dillon (IP): 8
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

This is an open-seat race to replace retiring  Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad.  Madia argues that his positions are actually closer to the moderate Ramstad’s than the hyper-conservative Paulsen’s are.  Paulsen has charged that Madia, the 30 year old son of Indian immigrants who also served in Iraq, does not have the “suburban life experience” needed to properly represent Minnesotans.  Whatever that means.

You can learn more about Madia here.