Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover Odds
By NATE SILVER
After having lost ground in the Senate forecast for three consecutive weeks, Democrats have demonstrated improved polling in several key matchups over the past week, dimming Republican hopes for taking over the chamber.
The FiveThirtyEight model now gives Republicans an 18 percent chance of claiming control of the Senate after the Nov. 2 elections — down from 24 percent last week. The projected composition of the Senate has also changed slightly: more than 100,000 simulation runs of the forecast model show the Democrats finishing with an average of 52 senators, up from 51.5 last week, and Republicans with 47.9 senators, down from 48.4 last week.
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Improvements in Nevada, West Virginia, Washington and Illinois