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You are here: Home / Blog / 538: Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races

October 14, 2010

538: Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races

Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover Odds

By NATE SILVER

After having lost ground in the Senate forecast for three consecutive weeks, Democrats have demonstrated improved polling in several key matchups over the past week, dimming Republican hopes for taking over the chamber.

The FiveThirtyEight model now gives Republicans an 18 percent chance of claiming control of the Senate after the Nov. 2 elections — down from 24 percent last week. The projected composition of the Senate has also changed slightly: more than 100,000 simulation runs of the forecast model show the Democrats finishing with an average of 52 senators, up from 51.5 last week, and Republicans with 47.9 senators, down from 48.4 last week.

For the complete article, click here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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