This information is compiled by Riley Newman. The most updated information will always be available at this link.
- State races are assigned a “degree of competitiveness code” from 1 (tossup) to 4 (solid D or R). Competitiveness code: (1) at least one “tossup”; (2) no tossup, one or more “leans”; (3) “solid” and “lean” mix; (4) all “solid” or “safe”
- “Experts” and their most recent projection dates are in order: Cook Political Report (3/5), Sabato Crystal Ball (3/5), and InsideElections (formerly Rothenberg Political Report) (2/2). Changes in these projections since last chart update will be noted following the chart.
- A candidate is usually listed only if his/her funds raised by12/31/2018 exceed $500,000 or he/she is otherwise notable – eg, a congressional incumbent or former governor.
Endorsers are drawn from the following list, representing the indicated specific concerns. Click on organization name here to view its website. Click on a candidate’s endorser (eg “CLW” following candidate Feingold) to see what the endorser says about him/her.
- CLW (Council for a Livable World) – arms control and foreign policy
- Emily’s List – women’s issues
- J Street – Israel-Palestine policy
- LCV (League of Conservation Voters) and SC (Sierra Club), – environmental issues
- ECU (EndCitizensUnited.org) – campaign finance issues
A candidate’s name, if in blue, is linked to information Vote Smart provides about ratings and endorsements for the candidate by numerous organizations, organized in categories. From there, other Vote Smart info about the candidate is easily accessed. See notes on Vote Smart following this chart.
| State | Competitiveness code | Primary
date in 2018 |
“Experts” forecast for seat | Candidates (Italics indicates Incumbent)
D: Democrat R: Republican I: Independent |
Funds raised in $M, from FEC as of
3/6/2018 |
Endorsers
(See notes above.) |
Notes from John Isaacs of the Council for a Livable World |
| AZ | 1 | 8/28 | Tossup
Tossup Tossup |
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Kelli Ward (R) Joe Arpaio (R) Martha McSally (R) |
8.3
2.0 0.5 3.8 |
Emily ECU | Arizona: Sen. Jeff Flake (R) has been an ardent and vocal opponent of Donald Trump, and wrote a book detailing his criticisms. On October 24, in terrible political shape, he announced he would not run again. Ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward (R), who lost last year’s primary to Senator McCain 51%-40%, had announced that she would challenge Flake. In January 2018, 85-year old Republican Joe Arpaio, former sheriff known for his hardline approach to Hispanics, announced he is running, as did Rep. Martha McSally. Democrats have a strong candidate in Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. |
| CA | 4 | 6/5 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Alison Hartson (D) |
10.4
0.7 0.1 |
Emily JSt | California: After leaving her future uncertain, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) announced in October 2017 that she will run for re-election. But she faces a primary challenge from state Senate leader Kevin de León (D) and progressive activist Alison Hartson (D). |
| CT | 4 | 8/14 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Chris Murphy (D) | 10.5
|
JSt SC | Connecticut: Incumbent heavily favored. |
| DE | 4 | 9/6 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Tom Carper (D)
|
15.3 | JSt | Delaware: Incumbent heavily favored. |
| FL | 1 | 8/28 | Lean D
Tossup Tilt D |
Bill Nelson (D) | 10.2
0 |
LCV ECU SC | Florida: In April, Governor Rick Scott (R) announced his challenge to Senator Bill Nelson (D) in what will be a very expensive and competitive race. Nelson, who is 74, is the most popular politician in Florida, but Scott has won the governorship twice and is very wealthy. Polls consistently show Nelson modestly ahead of Scott, but not with a secure lead. . |
| HI | 4 | 8/11 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Mazie Hirono (D) | 2.8 | Emily CLW ECU LCV | Hawaii: Incumbent heavily favored |
| IN | 1 | 5/8 | Tossup
Tossup Tossup |
Joe Donnelly (D)
|
10.0
2.8 2.7 5.9
|
ECU | Indiana: A wide field of Republican candidates is lining up to oppose Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita (R), U.S. Rep. Luke Messer (R) and State Rep. Mike Braun (R) have declared, as have several other candidates. It is a tough state for a Democrat to win. The two House members appear set for a nasty and bitter primary.
|
| ME | 2 | 6/12 | Lean D
Likely D/I Solid D |
Angus King (I)
Eric Brakey (R) Zak Ringelstein (D) |
4.1
0.3 0.2 |
CLW JSt ECU | Maine: Sen. Angus King (I) is in political good shape. He has one Republican opponent, State Sen. Eric Brakey, who is not well known, and one Democratic opponent, Zak Ringelstein, a teacher and a founder of an education business. |
| MD | 4 | 6/26 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Ben Cardin (D)
Chelsea Manning (D)
|
2.8
0.1 |
Maryland: Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is the overwhelming favorite to win re-election in strongly Democratic Maryland. That has not stopped Chelsea Manning, convicted of disclosing classified information, from running against him in the Democratic primary. | |
| MA | 4 | TBA | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Elizabeth Warren (D)
John Kingston (R) Shiva Ayyadurai (R) Beth Lindstrom (R) Allen Waters (R) |
18.1
4.9 4.6 1.0 0.9 0 |
CLW Emily ECU | Massachusetts: Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) is a very strong candidate. Computer scientist Shiva Ayyadurai (R), state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R), financial consultant Allen Waters (R) and John Kingston (R), a wealthy businessman and philanthropist who has self-funded to the tune of $3 million, are running against her. |
| MI | 3 | 8/7 | Likely D
Likely D Solid D |
Debbie Stabenow (D)
John James (R) Bob Young (R) Sandi Pensler (R) |
11.1
2.2 0.3 5.1 |
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (D) looks to be in strong shape for re-election, but a number of candidates are considering running against her. Businessman John James (R), who served with the Army in Iraq and businessman Sandy Pensler (R) have declared. | |
| MN
A |
4 | 8/14 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Amy Klobuchar (D)
|
7.9
0.1 |
Emily ECU
|
Minnesota A: In early August, 2017, State Rep. Jim Newberger (R) announced he will challenge Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D), who is the overwhelming favorite. |
| MN
B |
1 | 8/14 | Tossup
Likely D Likely D |
Tina Smith (D)
Bob Anderson (R)
|
2.7
0.7 0.0 |
Emily | Minnesota B: With the departure of Sen. Al Franken (D-MN), accused of sexual transgressions, Governor Mark Dayton appointed his Lieutenant Governor, Tina Smith, as Franken’s replacement. She will be on the ballot in November 2018. State Sen. Karin Housley and Dental technician Bob Anderson (R) will run for the Republican nomination. The Republican establishment appears to be coalescing around Housley. |
| MS
A |
4 | 6/5 | Solid R
Safe R Solid R |
Roger Wicker (R)
|
4.8
0 0 |
Mississippi A: Roger Wicker (R) is running for re-election in an overwhelmingly Republican state. He will coast to re-election after State senator Chris McDaniel (R) dropped his challenger to Wicker to run for the other Mississippi Senate seat. | |
| MS
B |
Likely R
Likely R Solid R |
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Mike Espy (D) Jason Shelton (D) |
0
0 0 0 |
Mississippi B: On March 21, Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant announced the appointment of Cindy Hyde-Smith, the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce, to fill the seat of GOP U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran, who resigned from the Senate because of ill health on April 1. State senator Chris McDaniel (R) has dropped his challenge to incumbent Senator Roger Wicker (R) and instead will run for this seat . Former U.S. Representative and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy (D) has also quickly entered the race as has Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton (D). | |||
| MO | 1 | 8/7 | Tossup
Tossup Tossup |
Claire McCaskill (D)
Austin Petersen (R)
|
13.2
1.8 0.3 |
Emily ECU | Missouri: In 2012, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) was fortunate to run against Rep. Todd Akin (R), who made infamous comments about “legitimate rape.” Austin Petersen (R), a former Libertarian candidate for President, declared for the seat on July 4. On October 10, Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) announced for Senate, and may be the consensus Republican nominee. |
| MT | 2 | 6/5 | Likely D
Leans D Tilt D |
Jon Tester (D)
Troy Downing (R) |
11.3
1.3 1.1 0.2 |
CLW ECU | Montana: Sen. John Tester (D) dodged a bullet when Rep. Ryan Zinke (R), who represented the entire state in the House, was appointed Interior Secretary. But Trump carried the state by 20%, so Tester’s re-election will not be easy. Montana Attorney General Tim Fox (R) has joined Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R) in declining to challenge Tester, but a close election is still likely. State Auditor Matt Rosendale is running, but faces state Sen. Albert Olszewski and businessman Troy Downing in the GOP primary. |
| NE | 4 | 5/15 | Solid R
Safe R Solid R |
Deb Fischer (R)
Jane Raybould (D) |
4.2
0.7 |
Nebraska: Jane Raybould (D), who runs the grocery business her father started more than 53 years ago, is challenging Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in a very tough state for Democrats. | |
| NV | 1 | 6/12 | Tossup
Tossup Tossup |
Dean Heller (R)
Jesse Sbaih (D)
|
6.0
2.2 7.7
|
|
Nevada: Senator Dean Heller (R) is up for election in a state carried twice by President Obama and once by Hillary Clinton. Still, Heller has won four elections in the state and he will not be easy to dislodge. In July 2017, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) announced she will run, and will be a strong opponent. |
| NJ | 4 | 6/5 | Likely D
Likely D Solid D |
Bob Menendez (D)
Richard Pezzullo (R) Bob Hugin (R) |
4.5
0.1 7.9 |
New Jersey: Senator Robert Menendez (D) went on trial on federal corruption charges in September, but a hung jury ended the trial. In January 2018, the Justice Department dropped all charges, and the incumbent should coast to re-election. Bob Hugin (R), formerly a top executive at the pharmaceutical company Celgene, declared his candidacy in February. | |
| NM | 4 | 6/5 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Martin Heinrich (D)
Mick Rich (R) |
5.6
0.6 |
CLW JSt ECU | New Mexico: Senator Martin Heinrich (D) has a challenger after Albuquerque construction company owner Mark Rich (R) announced his candidacy. Rich has never run for office, but could self-fund. |
| NY | 4 | 9/11 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | 14.8 | Emily | New York: Incumbent heavily favored. |
| ND | 1 | 6/12 | Tossup
Tossup Tossup |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) | 8.3
0 |
ECU | North Dakota: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) faces an electorate that strongly backed President Trump. In August 2017, state Sen. Tom Campbell (R) entered the race. U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) first announced he would not run, but in February 2018 reversed course. Campbell promptly dropped out. |
| OH
|
2 | 5/8 | Lean D
Lean D Lean D |
Sherrod Brown (D)
Mike Gibbons (R) |
17.9
1.8 4.4 |
JSt ECU CLW | Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) beat back a challenge in 2012 from state treasurer Josh Mandel (R), but in early January 2018, Mandel dropped out of the expected rematch due to his wife’s health problems. After Mandel left the race, U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci (R) switched from running for governor to enter this Senate contest. Wealthy investment banker Mike Gibbons (R) had previously entered the contest and launched a television and internet advertising campaign. At the filing deadline in February, investment adviser Dan Kiley (R) also joined the contest. |
| PA | 2 | 5/15 | Likely D
Likely D Likely D |
Bob Casey (D)
Lou Barletta (R) Paul Addis (R)
|
14.7
2.8 1.5 0.1 0.3 |
CLW LCV ECU | Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey (D) is in a good position to be re-elected, but the state went for Trump in 2016, leaving some uncertainty. In August 2017, Republican Rep. Lou Barletta announced that he will run, and he is likely to be the major opposition. |
| RI | 4 | 9/11 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Robert Flanders (R) |
3.8
0.7 |
JSt ECU | Rhode Island: Incumbent heavily favored. |
| TN | 1 | 8/2 | Tossup
Likely R Lean R |
Philip Bredesen (D)
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
4.4
5.3 |
Tennessee: Sen. Bob Corker (R) has announced his retirement at the end of this term. In December, former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) entered the Democratic primary. GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn will be the Republican nominee. |
|
| TX | 4 | 3/6 | Likely R
Likely R Likely R |
Ted Cruz (R)
|
9.1
13.4 |
JSt LCV ECU | Texas: U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), a three -term Representative from El Paso, is challenging incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). O’Rourke, who is the underdog, is a businessman in the technology industry and a musician who played in three punk rock bands during and after his college years at Columbia University. O’Rourke is raising huge amounts of money in an unconventional campaign. |
| UT | 4 | 6/26 | Solid R
Safe R Solid R |
Jenny Wilson (D)
Mitt Romney (R) |
0.5
1.7 |
Utah: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) will retire at the end of his term after eight terms in office. Former Republican Senate candidate Mitt Romney (R) is the overwhelming favorite to be elected. | |
| VT | 4 | 8/14 | Solid D
Safe D/I Solid D |
Bernie Sanders (I) | 5.4 | Vermont: Incumbent heavily favored. | |
| VA | 4 | 6/12 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Tim Kaine (D)
E.W. Jackson (R) |
11.9
0.6 0.3 0.2 |
JSt CLW | Virginia: Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart (R), who came close to claiming the Virginia GOP nomination for governor, is running against Sen. Tim Kaine (D). In his announcement, Stewart promised to “run a very vicious and ruthless campaign against Tim Kaine and I’m going to win.” Conservative Delegate Nick Freitas (R) and preacher E.W. Jackson, the GOP nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia in the 2013 election. entered the race in December, |
| WA | 4 | 8/7 | Solid D
Safe D Solid D |
Maria Cantwell (D) | 6.8 | Emily | Washington: Incumbent heavily favored. |
| WV | 1 | 5/8 | Tossup
Lean D Tossup |
Joe Manchin (D)
Don Blankenship (R) |
6.1
1.4 1.8 2.0 |
West Virginia: Two-term Congressman Evan Jenkins (R) and State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) are running against Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in 2018, a state which has turned very Republican in recent years but still elects Democrats to the U.S. Senate and as Governor. Manchin has developed a very independent profile. A poll released in September 2017 showed Manchin with a 10-point lead. President Trump carried the state over Hillary Clinton 68%-27% and the state’s governor, who ran as a Democrat, has switched to the Republican Party. | |
| WI | 2 | 8/14 | Likely D
Lean D Tilt D
|
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Kevin Nicholson (R) |
16.8
2.3 1.2 |
Emily CLW JSt ECU | Wisconsin: While a lot of Republicans circled around the Senate seat of Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), in the end state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) and Marine veteran and businessman Kevin Nicholson (R) are the only two who have declared. There will be months of vigorous battle for the August 14 primary between Nicholson (R), a former president of College Democrats of America, who has been endorsed by Club for Growth, and Vukmir (R), who appears to have the support of Governor Walker’s team. |
| WY | 4 | 8/21 | Solid R
Safe R Solid R |
John Barrasso (R)
Gary Trauner (D) |
5.3
0.4 |
Wyoming: Sen. John Barrasso is seeking re-election, but alt-right leader Steve Bannon is looking for a Republican to run against him in a primary. In the meantime, businessman Gary Trauner (D), who very narrowly lost a 2006 House bid, has announced he will run for the U.S. Senate. |
Changes in “expert” prognostications since last chart update: no previous update
This page includes links to Vote Smart, a nonpartisan organization that provides facts about current officials and candidates for political office. The links to their website are for informational purposes and do not associate Vote Smart to any above-stated opinions.
VoteSmart.org provides a treasure chest of information about many of the candidates in our chart. Vote Smart sends a “Political Courage Test” to candidates – a questionnaire asking for his/her position on a range of issues. Unfortunately, in recent years candidates are increasingly unwilling to respond to this test. So Vote Smart’s website now presents what it thinks a candidate’s answers would have been, based on Vote Smart’s analysis of the candidate’s past statements and votes. The links in our chart take you directly to the Vote Smart page for each candidate. Far more information is readily accessed from this Vote Smart section, including the candidate’s biography, voting record, copies of speeches and statements, and funding. In addition, Vote Smart provides a huge nicely-organized table showing ratings and endorsements of the candidate by a wide range of organizations – an excellent way to explore evaluations of the candidate by organizations that address particular concerns the reader may have.
