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The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation is the Council’s affiliated 501(c)(3) research organization. |
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ARE WE DESTINED FOR A COLD WAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY? WATCH OUR ANNUAL CONFERENCE NOW The Center hosted our annual conference, with the theme, “Are We Destined for a Cold War in the 21st Century?” September 24. In case you missed it, or in case you want to watch it again, you can watch the full video on YouTube. Our lineup of esteemed speakers and panelists sought to answer one critical question: With rising nuclear tensions between the United States, Russia and China, and an increase in disruptive emerging technologies, are we headed toward another era of nuclear confrontation? We believe all of the panels and speakers lead us to one clear answer: no. We are not destined to enter another era of nuclear confrontation, if we act now to prevent it. That power is in our hands. |
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RUSSIA REJECTS U.S. OPENNESS TO MULTILATERAL TALKS; NORTH KOREA SENDS TROOPS In his October 13 statement congratulating the Japanese anti-nuclear group Nihon Hidankyo for being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, President Joe Biden signaled U.S. openness to talks with Russia, China, and North Korea on nuclear issues “without preconditions to reduce the nuclear threat.” The Kremlin responded to Biden’s remarks on October 14 alongside statements criticizing NATO’s annual nuclear exercise saying, “it is absolutely impossible to talk about this without linking the issue to all other aspects of security.” Meanwhile, in a worrying new chapter for the war in Ukraine, South Korean intelligence, which was later confirmed by U.S. officials, reported October 18 that North Korea sent 3,000 troops to Russia. The U.S. is still trying to determine if the troops are headed towards Ukraine, but White House spokesperson John Kirby says if they are deployed to Ukraine they are “fair game.” After Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact this summer, this moment spells another escalation of the two countries’ partnership going from the exchange of military supplies to troops. Senior Policy Director John Erath shared his thoughts with 38 North. |
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CHINA TEST-LAUNCHES ICBM, WARNS NUCLEAR USE NOT OFF THE TABLE Meanwhile, reports surfaced about a potentially nuclear-powered Chinese submarine that inadvertently sank while docked in a domestic shipyard. Reporting in the days since has been unable to say definitively what type of submarine it was, and China has not commented publicly on the matter. Additionally, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported this past week that China is continuing to enlarge its nuclear forces. The agency estimates that China’s total operational warheads now exceed 500 and that it is continuing to build additional ICBM silos and missile launchers. According to the DIA, this expansion is specifically aimed at countering the United States and enhancing China’s nuclear warfighting capabilities. “China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history — almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized.” |
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NORTH KOREA CONTINUES EFFORTS TO EXPAND ARSENAL North Korea has continued to declare its plans to accelerate efforts toward building a more formidable nuclear arsenal. In a series of statements in recent weeks, Kim Jong Un underscored the regime’s intent to expand the size and scope of its nuclear arsenal in the face of what it perceives as international hostility. North Korea’s ongoing uranium enrichment activities have sparked fresh concerns after the regime released photos of the interior of one of its enrichment facilities, with experts also warning that Pyongyang may be moving closer to exporting nuclear materials to other rogue states. The regime also continued missile testing throughout late September and early October, including firing short-range ballistic missiles and new a new cruise missile variant that the regime touts as “strategic,” implying that it is nuclear-capable. In recent days, the North also used explosives to destroy several rail and road linkages to South Korea, seemingly making good on its declared intentions to abandon normalization and reunification with the South. |
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NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA CAN DELIVER HOUSE MAJORITY The contest for the majority in the next House of Representatives could turn on a few districts in New York and California. It’s imperative for our endorsed candidates in tight races in those states to be elected to give progressives the edge — along with the committee leadership and House leadership that would come with it.
You can see the full list of our endorsed candidates at the bottom of this newsletter. Meanwhile, you might find these links useful: Donate to all or some endorsed Senate candidates | Donate to all or some endorsed House candidates | Donate to all or some endorsed House and Senate candidates. You can also find bios and donation links for all of candidates on our respective House and Senate candidate list pages. |
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THE NEW YORK TIMES’ LATEST EXAMINES COST OF NUCLEAR MODERNIZATION The New York Times’ opinion series, At The Brink, is out with a new column, “America’s $1.7 Trillion Nuclear Makeover” by W.J. Hennigan. This column dives into the United States’ unprecedented nuclear modernization spending spree, asking the question: What future are we buying ourselves? And at what cost? “We should talk about why Washington is making America nuclear again and what we hope to achieve with one of the most ambitious, far-reaching construction projects in the country’s history. The money is already flowing, assembling weapons everyone hopes will never be used.” Hennigan outlines how states across the country are bearing the costs of modernization, and the impact this will have on the lives of everyday Americans. |
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ISRAEL, IRAN EXCHANGE ATTACKS Iran launched its second missile attack of the war against Israel on October 1. While speaking with The Telegraph, the Center’s Paul Castleman Fellow, Sam Hickey, explains the implications of Iran using ballistic missiles in this attack. Rather than employing slower drones and cruise missiles like in April, Iran chose to send 200 ballistic missiles that can fly at hypersonic speeds above mach-5, making them much harder to intercept by fighter jets or ground-based systems. Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom and its allies had sufficient time to prepare their response to the attack and were able to intercept most of the missiles, but since Israel is reliant on the United States for these interceptors, there is the possibility that Iran could try to overwhelm Israel’s missile defense system in the future — especially if the exchanges between Iran and Israel expand into a full-blown conflict. Iran’s attack has also led to questions over possible nuclear escalation for the war. While Iran does not currently have nuclear weapons, it might be able to produce enough fuel for a nuclear weapon in a week, but would still need months after that to construct functioning weapons. Israel has never confirmed their nuclear arsenal, but it is widely understood they maintain one. Speaking with VOA, Hickey explained that “it’s highly unlikely that either Israel or Iran would see a benefit in using nuclear weapons” as the two currently understand that threat of massive retaliation in either direction could mean their own destruction. Israeli military officials confirmed that Hamas leader and October 7 terror attack architect, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza on October 16. Sinwar’s death marks a major milestone in Israel’s goal to destroy Hamas. Israel attacked Iran Saturday, apparently hitting military sites but avoiding nuclear ones. |
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CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FIGHTS AHEAD The major parties generally do not wait around too long after the election to decide who will lead each party in the next Congress. Election results may be impactful. House Republicans have scheduled their leadership contests for the week of November 12, the first week back after the election. If conservatives retain their House majority, this speedy leadership election benefits Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and his team. House Democrats do not expect much change although there will be a contest for Vice Chair between Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL) and Sara Jacobs (D-CA). In the Senate, Republicans will again face the more contentious leadership battle as three Senators vie to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). This will be the first change in Republican Senate leadership in almost 20 years. Senate Democrats’ leadership will stay the same barring some completely unexpected election results. |
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CONGRESS HAS TO ADDRESS SPENDING POST-ELECTION Congress returns to session after the elections and both chambers have a long list of priorities and not much time. The two “must-pass” pieces of legislation are the annual defense authorization and government funding. The Continuing Resolution to fund the government that passed shortly before adjournment keeps the money flowing until December 20. Many Members, especially among hardline conservatives, will likely oppose any plans to combine appropriations bills into what is known as an “omnibus” funding bill. However, that remains the most likely outcome. Also ahead is the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization bill. The House approved its version of the measure on June 14, while the Senate decided to move straight to negotiating with the House after committee passage. Staff-level negotiations are ongoing and final passage is expected in December before the holidays. |
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TOO CLOSE TO CALL You are likely being inundated with election predictions and articles about handwringing and rumors. The reality is that this election will once again be extremely close. Both the races for the presidency and the majority in the House will be decided by the closest of margins. In the Senate, conservatives have a slight edge but much will come down to turnout. And as is often the case, we likely won’t know the results of the closest races until days after polls close. As of this morning, nearly 40 million people have already cast their ballots. |
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NEW OP-ED: CALIFORNIANS MUST STEP UP PRESSURE TO ENSURE A FULL CLEANUP OF TOXIC SANTA SUSANA LAB Research Analyst and Los Angeles native Shawn Rostker wrote about nuclear neglect in his own backyard at the shuttered Santa Susana Field Lab (SSFL) in Southern California. SSFL, a former hub for rocket testing and nuclear reactor development, was decommissioned in 2006 but decades of chemical pollutants and radiological contamination — including from a 1959 partial reactor meltdown — remain in the soil and groundwater. After leaders have failed to champion a thorough cleanup, it’s now up to the public to demand immediate action to prevent another Hanford or Los Alamos disaster. Read more in CalMatters and share with the Californians in your network. |
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WELCOME TO THE CENTER’S NEW SCOVILLE FELLOW The Center is proud to welcome its new Scoville Fellow Marlena Broeker. At the Center, Marlena is excited to focus on NATO nuclear relations and the evolution of deterrence theory. Prior to becoming a fellow, she studied international relations with a concentration in international security at Tufts University. Marlena’s background in education, which includes creating online content to engage the public on nuclear issues and serving as a writing fellow at her university academic resource center, underscores her belief in the importance of public-centric perspectives in nuclear policy. Look out for more work from her in the coming months! |
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CONSIDER BECOMING A MONTHLY DONOR As election season continues, the Council is also hard at work on its advocacy on Capitol Hill. Have you considered making a monthly donation to support our efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear threats through political action? You can donate as little as $1 a month. Become a monthly supporter today! |
