An Early Look at 2020 House Elections

By John Isaacs

After a 40-seat Democratic gain in the 2018 House election, Republicans are hoping to regain control of the House while Democrats will be trying to consolidate their gains.

House contests tend to take many months to develop. An early tipoff of which races are most likely to be key are the lists of House Members that the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees target. These lists will be modified as the campaign season progresses.

Below are top House seat targets at this point in the election season. This post will be updated periodically.

 

Top National Republican Congressional Committee Targets for 2020

Roll Call – February 2019: Republicans will be targeting 55 House Democrats in 2020, the majority of whom are new members, the National Republican Congressional Committee announced Thursday.

The target list includes all 31 Democrats in districts President Donald Trump carried in 2016. The list also includes 20 districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that were previously represented by Republicans.

Below is the list of 55 GOP targets:

  • AZ-01 – Tom O’Halleran
  • AZ-02 – Ann Kirkpatrick
  • CA-10 – Josh Harder
  • CA-21 – TJ Cox
  • CA-25 – Katie Hill
  • CA-39 – Gil Cisneros
  • CA-45 – Katie Porter
  • CA-48 – Harley Rouda
  • CA-49 – Mike Levin
  • CO-06 – Jason Crow
  • FL-07 – Stephanie Murphy
  • FL-13 – Charlie Crist
  • FL-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
  • FL-27 –  Donna E. Shalala
  • GA-06 – Lucy McBath
  • IA-01 – Abby Finkenauer
  • IA-02 – Dave Loebsack
  • IA-03 – Cindy Axne
  • IL-06 – Sean Casten
  • IL-14 – Lauren Underwood
  • IL-17 – Cheri Bustos
  • KS-03 – Sharice Davids
  • ME-02 – Jared Golden
  • MI-08 – Elissa Slotkin
  • MI-11 – Haley Stevens
  • MN-02 – Angie Craig
  • MN-03 – Dean Phillips
  • MN-07 — Colin Peterson
  • NH-01 – Chris Pappas
  • NJ-02 – Jeff Van Drew
  • NJ-03 – Andy Kim
  • NJ-05 – Josh Gottheimer
  • NJ-07 – Tom Malinowski
  • NJ-11 – Mikie Sherrill
  • NV-03 – Susie Lee
  • NV-04 – Steven Horsford
  • NY-11 – Max Rose
  • NY-18 – Sean Patrick Maloney
  • NY-19 – Antonio Delgado
  • NY-22 – Anthony Brindisi
  • NM-02 – Xochitl Torres Small
  • OK-05 – Kendra Horn
  • OR-04 – Peter DeFazio
  • PA-07 – Susan Wild
  • PA-08 – Matt Cartwright
  • PA-17 – Conor Lamb
  • SC-01 – Joe Cunningham
  • TX-07 – Lizzie Fletcher
  • TX-32 – Colin Allred
  • UT-04 – Ben McAdams
  • VA-02 – Elaine Luria
  • VA-07 – Abigail Spanberger
  • VA-10 – Jennifer Wexton
  • WA-08 – Kim Schrier
  • WI-03 – Ron Kind

 

Top Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Targets for 2020

CNN Politics – January 2019: House Democrats unveiled an initial 2020 battlefield map, targeting 33 Republican-held or open congressional seats with an emphasis on suburban districts — and Texas in particular. Updated August 15, 2019

Below is the full list of 33 targeted districts:

  • AZ-06 — Dave Schweikert
  • CA-22 — Devin Nunes
  • CA-50 — Duncan Hunter
  • CO-03 — Scott Tipton
  • FL-15 — Ross Spano
  • FL-16 — Vern Buchanan
  • FL-18 — Brian Mast
  • GA-07 — Rob Woodall (retiring)
  • IA-04 — Steve King
  • IL-13 — Rodney Davis
  • IN-05 — Susan Brooks (retiring)
  • KY-06 — Andy Barr
  • MI-03 — Justin Amash
  • MI-06 — Fred Upton
  • MN-01 — Jim Hagedorn
  • MO-02 — Ann Wagner
  • NC-02 — George Holding
  • NC-09 –- OPEN
  • NC-13 — Ted Budd
  • NE-02 — Don Bacon
  • NY-01 — Lee Zeldin
  • NY-02 — Peter King
  • NY-24 — John Katko
  • NY-27 — Chris Collins
  • OH-01 — Steve Chabot
  • OH-12 — Troy Balderson
  • PA-01 — Brian Fitzpatrick
  • PA-10 — Scott Perry
  • PA-16 — Mike Kelly
  • TX-10 — Mike McCaul
  • TX-21 — Chip Roy
  • TX-22 — Pete Olson (retiring)
  • TX-23 — Will Hurd (retiring)
  • TX-24 — Kenny Marchant (retiring)
  • TX-31 — John Carter
  • VA-05 — Denver Riggleman
  • WA-03 — Jaime Herrera Beutler

Top National Republican Congressional Committee Seats to Protect in 2020: Patriot Program

18 incumbents (updated July 2019):

  • Rep. Don Young (AK-AL)
  • Rep. Brian Mast (FL-18)
  • Rep. Steve Watkins (KS-02)
  • Rep. Andy Barr (KY-06)
  • Rep. Rodney Davis (IL-13)
  • Rep. Fred Upton (MI-06)
  • Rep. Jim Hagedorn (MN-01)
  • Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02)
  • Rep. Lee Zeldin (NY-01)
  • Rep. John Katko (NY-24)
  • Rep. Steve Chabot (OH-1)
  • Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)
  • Rep. Michael McCaul (TX-10)
  • Rep. Pete Olson (TX-22)
  • Rep. Kenny Marchant (TX-24)
  • Rep. Will Hurd (TX-23)
  • Rep. John Carter (TX-31
  • Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03)

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee “Frontline” Program To Protect Most Vulnerable Democratic Seats in 2020

DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos announced the list in February 2019.

Below is the list of 44 Democrats for the 2020 cycle:

  • AZ-01 – Tom O’Halleran
  • CA-10 – Josh Harder
  • CA-21 – TJ Cox
  • CA-25 – Katie Hill
  • CA-39 – Gil Cisneros
  • CA-45 – Katie Porter
  • CA-48 – Harley Rouda
  • CA-49 – Mike Levin
  • CO-06 – Jason Crow
  • CT-05 – Jahana Hayes
  • FL-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
  • GA-06 – Lucy McBath
  • IA-01 – Abby Finkenauer
  • IA-03 – Cindy Axne
  • IL-06 – Sean Casten
  • IL-14 – Lauren Underwood
  • KS-03 – Sharice Davids
  • ME-02 – Jared Golden
  • MI-08 – Elissa Slotkin
  • MI-11 – Haley Stevens
  • MN-02 – Angie Craig
  • NH-01 – Chris Pappas
  • NJ-02 – Jeff Van Drew
  • NJ-03 – Andy Kim
  • NJ-05 – Josh Gottheimer
  • NJ-07 – Tom Malinowski
  • NJ-11 – Mikie Sherrill
  • NM-02 – Xochitl Torres Small
  • NV-03 – Susie Lee
  • NV-04 – Steven Horsford
  • NY-11 – Max Rose
  • NY-19 – Antonio Delgado
  • NY-22 – Anthony Brindisi
  • OK-05 – Kendra Horn
  • PA-07 – Susan Wild
  • PA-08 – Matt Cartwright
  • PA-17 – Conor Lamb
  • SC-01 – Joe Cunningham
  • TX-07 – Lizzie Fletcher
  • TX-32 – Colin Allred
  • UT-04 – Ben McAdams
  • VA-02 – Elaine Luria
  • VA-07 – Abigail Spanberger
  • WA-08 – Kim Schrier

Republican Young Gun “On the Radar” candidates

List released August 16, 2019 by National Republican Campaign Committee of challengers for Democratic seats

  • (AL-01) Bill Hightower
  • (AL-01) Chris Pringle
  • (CA-10) Bob Elliott
  • (CA-10) Ted Howze
  • (CA-25) Mike Garcia
  • (CA-25) Angela Underwood Jacobs
  • (CA-39) Young Kim
  • (CA-45) Peggy Huang
  • (CA-45) Greg Raths
  • (CA-45) Don Sedgwick
  • (CA-45) Lisa Sparks
  • (CA-48) Michelle Steel
  • (CA-49) Brian Maryott
  • (FL-13) Amanda Makki
  • (FL-26) Irina Vilarino
  • (FL-27) Maria Elvira Salazar
  • (GA-06) Karen Handel
  • (GA-07) Ben Bullock
  • (GA-07) Lynne Homrich
  • (GA-07) Renee Unterman
  • (IA-01) Ashley Hinson
  • (IA-03) David Young
  • (IL-06) Evelyn Sanguinetti
  • (IL-14) Ted Gradel
  • (IL-14) Jim Oberweis
  • (KS-03) Sara Hart Weir
  • (MI-03) Jim Lower
  • (MT-AL) Matt Rosendale
  • (MT-AL) Corey Stapleton
  • (NJ-05) Frank Pallotta
  • (NJ-07) Tom Kean Jr
  • (NM-02) Yvette Herrell
  • (NV-04) Jim Marchant
  • (NY-11) Nicole Malliotakis
  • (NY-18) Chele Farley
  • (OK-05) Stephanie Bice
  • (OK-05) Terry Neese
  • (SC-01) Kathy Landing
  • (SC-01) Nancy Mace
  • (TX-07) Wesley Hunt
  • (TX-07) Cindy Siegel
  • (TX-32) Genevieve Collins
  • (VA-07) Tina Ramirez