IRAN
Israeli strike on Iran nuclear program? Global leaders try to quiet speculation, threats.
Ariel Zirulnick, Christian Science Monitor — November 8, 2011
Ahead of an IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program, China, Russia, Germany, and France have all urged calm.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatens to retaliate if US assassinates commanders
The Washington Post — November 8, 2011
An Iranian semi-official news agency says that a top commander in the country’s Revolutionary Guard force has threatened to kill “dozens” of American military commanders, should the U.S. kill any one of theirs.

NORTH KOREA
Seoul Awaits Pyongyang’s Response on Nuclear Talks
Voice of America — November 8, 2011
A South Korean official says two rounds of talks with North Korea have left Pyongyang with a better understanding of what it must do to effect a resumption of six-party nuclear negotiations.

South Korea approves shipment of medicine to North Korea, in signs of easing tensions
The Washington Post — November 8, 2011
South Korea has lifted its block on donating medicine to North Korea via the World Health Organization, amid signs of easing tensions between the countries.

UNITED STATES
Pentagon is asked to outline impact of budget cuts
David Alexander, Reuters — November 4, 2011
Two senior Republican senators pressed the Pentagon Friday to release a detailed assessment of the impact more budget cuts would have on national security, saying Congress needs to hear specifics.

Panetta Urges Leadership in Budget Decisions
Jim Garamone, American Forces Press Service — November 8, 2011
In his strongest language to date, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta today called on Congress to “show some leadership” in the budget process.  Panetta, speaking at the National Guard’s Joint Senior Leaders Conference here, said that the sequester mechanism built into the Budget Control Act is “like shooting yourself in the head.”

PAKISTAN
U.S. put new restrictions on CIA drone strikes in Pakistan
Ken Dilanian, Los Angeles Times — November 7, 2011
The White House over the summer put new restrictions on CIA drone strikes in the wake of concerns that the program was primarily targeting lower-level militants while provoking anger in Pakistan, U.S. officials said.

Pakistan’s “Arab Spring” moment goes unnoticed
CBS — November 8, 2011
It could have been an Arab Spring moment. Taking an apparent cue from the young Tunisian who, tired of the poverty in which he lived, set himself on fire and launched a protest movement around the world, Raja Khan, 23, went to Pakistan’s parliament late last month and did the same.

IRAN
IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear capability
Joby Warrick, The Washington Post — November 6, 2011
Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

Q+A: U.N. report on Iran’s nuclear program
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters — November 7, 2011
The U.N. atomic watchdog is set to issue a report this week with detailed intelligence pointing to research and experiments in Iran to develop the technology and skills needed to make nuclear bombs, Western diplomats say.

Insight: Has Iran ended Israel’s Begin Doctrine?
Dan Williams, Reuters — November 7, 2011
Menachem Begin did not pull his punches. In 1981, as work neared completion on an Iraqi nuclear reactor that Israel believed would produce plutonium for warheads, the Israeli prime minister dispatched eight F-16 bombers to destroy the plant. Begin later said that the raid was proof his country would “under no circumstances allow the enemy to develop weapons of mass-destruction against our people”.

Bracing for the Iran Nuclear Report: Will ‘Military Action’ Rhetoric Develop its Own Momentum?
Tony Karon, Time — November 7, 2011
If the proverbial “drumbeat” for war with Iran  has grown more insistent in recent weeks, it’s about to turn into something akin to  the opening bars of Black Sabbath’s “Iron Man”.  That’s because the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected, in a report on Iran’s nuclear program due for release early this week, to suggest that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program may include a “possible military dimension”, giving Tehran the means — possibly with the help of foreign scientists — to relatively quickly build nuclear weapons should it choose to do so.

NORTH KOREA
S. Korea to review sending aid to North
Jiyeon Lee, CNN — November 7, 2011
Signaling South Korea may be attempting to cool tensions with its neighbor, Seoul has vowed to actively review sending humanitarian aid to North Korea through third channels.

Between friend and ally
Sunny Lee, The Korea Times — November 7, 2011
Sometimes China and North Korea appear too close to each other; and that could mean trouble for China.  When North Korea embarks on provocative behavior, the international community looks to Beijing to restrain Pyongyang.

PAKISTAN
Pakistan Announces Move to Increase Nuclear Security
Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic — November 7, 2011
Pakistan is training 8,000 additional people to protect the country’s nuclear arsenal, which the U.S. fears could be vulnerable to penetration by Islamist militants at war with the West, the Pakistani military said.

The Pentagon’s Secret Plans to Secure Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder, Global Security Newswire — November 7, 2011
By hiding its nuclear weapons from Washington, Pakistan has made them much more vulnerable to jihadists. In response, the Pentagon has devised secret plans to secure the Pakistani arsenal — by force if necessary.

IRAN
Iran boosts anti-U.S. rhetoric ahead of nuclear report
Ramin Mostafavi, Reuters – November 4, 2011
Iran marked the anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the U.S. embassy on Friday with burning flags and chants of “Death to America,” escalating its anti-U.S. rhetoric ahead of the release of a pivotal U.N. report on its nuclear programme.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions have already started a war with west – a covert one
Julian Borger, The Guradian – November 4, 2011
The covert war on Iran’s nuclear programme was launched in earnest by George Bush in 2007. It is a fair assumption that the western powers had been trying their best to spy on the Islamic Republic since the 1979 Iranian revolution, but the 2007 “presidential finding” put those efforts on a new footing.

China urges Iran be flexible on nuclear program
Reuters – November 4, 2011
China urged Iran on Friday to show flexibility over its controversial nuclear program and warned that the use of force to resolve the issue was the last thing the Middle East needed at the moment.

ISRAEL
Israel Faces Questions About News Reports of Eyeing Iran Strike
Isabel Kershner & David E. Sanger, NYT – November 3, 2011
Israel’s top leadership has spent the week answering and evading questions about widespread reports that it is once again considering a strike on Iran’s nuclear complexes, while President Obama said Thursday that he and his allies would maintain “unprecedented international pressure” on Tehran to keep it from producing a nuclear weapon.

Israeli PM orders investigation into Iran leak
Ian Black, The Guardian – November 3, 2011
Israel’s prime minister has ordered an investigation into alleged leaks of plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it has been reported.

AFGHANISTAN
US says its civilian aid to Afghanistan has peaked
Susan Cornwell, Reuters – November 3, 2011
U.S. civilian aid to Afghanistan has peaked, the State Department said in a new report, declaring the United States would spend less on development assistance there as it withdraws troops from the country.

PAKISTAN
US reins in drones over diplomatic concerns: report
AFP – NOvember 4, 2011
The US spy agency has quietly tightened its rules on drone strikes in Pakistan over concerns about their impact on tense relations with Islamabad, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The Ally From Hell
Jeffrey Goldberg & Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic – NOvember 3, 2011
Pakistan lies. It hosted Osama bin Laden (knowingly or not). Its government is barely functional. It hates the democracy next door. It is home to both radical jihadists and a large and growing nuclear arsenal (which it fears the U.S. will seize). Its intelligence service sponsors terrorists who attack American troops. With a friend like this, who needs enemies?

UNITED STATES
Former deficit hawk Leon Panetta now fights budget cuts as defense secretary
Melina Mara, Washington Post – November 3, 2011
The last time the Pentagon was forced to shrink, two decades ago, one of its nemeses was a determined deficit hawk named Leon E. Panetta.

Perry would back Israel strike on Iran nuke sites
Reuters – November 4, 2011
Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry said on Thursday that as president he would support an Israeli air strike on Iran if there is proof Tehran is moving closer to having a nuclear weapon.

IRAN
House panel OKs tougher penalties against Iran, targeting companies doing business with Tehran
AP (Washington Post) – November 2, 2011
A House panel on Wednesday unanimously approved harsher penalties against Iran, arguing that an economically weak Tehran will struggle in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Iran’s nuclear activity under scrutiny as evidence of weapons threat emerges
Julian Borger, The Guardian – November 2, 2011
A report by the UN’s nuclear watchdog due to be circulated around the world next week will provide fresh evidence of a possible Iranian nuclear weapons programme, bringing the Middle East a step closer to a devastating new conflict, say diplomats.

ISRAEL
Israelis hold defense drill for missile attack
Ari Rabinovitch, Reuters – November 3, 2011
Israel staged a mass drill on Thursday, simulating a missile attack in the center of the country at a time of intense speculation that the Jewish state could launch strikes on Iran, although the military dismissed any link.

Poll shows strong support in Israel for military attack against Iranian nuclear program
AP (Washington Post) – November 2, 2011
The Israeli government would have significant support at home for an Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, according to a poll published Thursday.

NORTH & SOUTH KOREA
Time to engage world on Korean unification
Kim Young-jin, Korea Times – November 3, 2011
Unification ? the word itself could hardly be more evocative for Koreans, who for decades have mulled the immense effects the event would have for its people. But calls are growing for the issue to be discussed among the international community as well given its projected far-reaching impact.

North Korea’s economy shrinks in 2010: S. Korea
AFP – November 3, 2011
North Korea’s troubled economy shrank for the second straight year in 2010 as it faced sluggish agricultural production and tougher international sanctions, South Korea’s central bank said Thursday.

AFGHANISTAN
Source: US may speed shift to Afghan advisory role
Robert Burns, AP – November 2, 2011
The Obama administration is considering an early shift in the U.S. military role in Afghanistan from primarily combat to mainly advisory and training duties, even as it struggles to create the beginnings of a political settlement of the war, a senior U.S. official said.

Afghanistan Consults Neighbors on Security
Sebnem Arsu, NYT – November 3, 2011
In the largest meeting of its kind to date, representatives of Afghanistan and 12 nearby countries gathered in Istanbul on Wednesday to discuss regional efforts to rebuild security and stability in and around Afghanistan as NATO-led forces prepare to pull out of the country by the end of 2014.

UNITED STATES
How to Cut the Defense Budget Responsibly
David W. Barno, Nora Bensahel & Travis Sharp, Foreign Affairs – November 2, 2011
Washington’s national security community is sounding the alarm about a new era of fiscal constraints at the Pentagon. But if reductions are done within reason, the U.S. military can retain its preeminence by focusing strategically on Asia.

Pentagon chiefs: bigger defense cuts would hurt US
Robert Burns, AP – November 2, 2011
Military leaders warned Congress on Wednesday that steeper cuts in defense spending, as either a policy choice or a consequence of political gridlock, will gut the armed forces and sap U.S. global influence.

Military Leaders Question the Affordability of Pentagon’s Plan to Modernize All Three Legs of the Nuclear Weapons Triad

The United States nuclear force is composed of three components that are described as synergistic:

–>On land, with intercontinental ballistic missiles
–>At sea, with nuclear-powered submarines
–>In the air, with long-range nuclear bombers

Each of the three legs has its advantages and disadvantages in terms of speed, cost, vulnerability to attack, whether the system can be recalled once launched and more.

All three legs of the triad are edging toward the end of their useful lives and at some point in the near-future, all three legs will need to be replaced – or eliminated.

It is estimated that the United States will spend $700 billion on nuclear weapons and related programs over the next decade, including spending on new nuclear submarines, bombers and land-based missiles as well as on new facilities to build new explosive cores for nuclear warheads.

The Navy plans to spend around $110 billion to build a new fleet of nuclear-armed submarines.  The Pentagon estimates the total cost of building and operating the new submarine at nearly $350 billion over its 50 year lifespan. The Air Force also intends to spend $55 billion on procurement of 100 new bombers and an unknown sum on new land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles.

High level Pentagon officials are beginning to raise questions about the feasibility of the plans to build and maintain all three delivery systems for nuclear weapons.  

Mike Mullen, recently retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in September uttered words that ought to throw terror into the hearts of the nuclear establishment:

“At some point in time, that triad becomes very, very expensive, you know,    obviously, the smaller your nuclear arsenal is. And it’s — so at some point in time, in the future, certainly I think a decision will have to be made in terms of whether we keep the triad or drop it down to a dyad. I didn’t see us near that in this recent — over the last couple of years, with respect to the New START. But I spent enough time to know, at some point, that is going to be the case.”

He is not alone in expressing such sentiments.  Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who supports maintaining the nuclear triad, refused to rule out eliminating one leg in a May 2011 press conference, saying that nothing can be “off the table” as the Pentagon makes difficult budget choices in the future.

Strategic Command chief Gen. Robert Kehler, the man who commands U.S. strategic nuclear forces and would prefer to retain the nuclear triad, added in July:

“We’re not going to be able to go forward with weapon systems that cost what weapon systems cost today. Case in point is [the] Long-Range Strike [bomber]. Case in point is the Trident [submarine] replacement…. The list goes on.”

In his farewell address delivered to the Center for American Progress on October 5, Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn, III, in response to a question about whether the nation could continue to afford a nuclear triad, said:

“Well, I mean I think nuclear forces are going to have to be part of the discussion here, I don’t think any mission area is going to be exempt from looking. Whether you go, I think you need to look at can we, we have signed an agreement on New START with the Russians that set some limits. I think what we’re looking at now is what is the most efficient and effective way to stay within those limits but to do it in a more fiscally responsible fashion. I’m not sure that takes you to a dyad but I think there is a lot of different proposals that may get you down that path of staying within the START limits but doing it with, with somewhat less cost.“

Other military leaders have expressed doubts about whether the Pentagon plans for new nuclear launchers is affordable. Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright noted at the Global Zero Summit on October 11, 2011:

“If we recapitalize the strategic forces in the venue that they are, into the Triad, there is insufficient money to do that, and that  leaves no money for the other two pillars [pillar 1: relationship between intelligence community and special operations forces, pillar 2: services]. It’s not affordable the way we’re moving right now. Just to recapitalize the bomber is not affordable. We’re on a path in this country where we had hundreds of B52s. We had 100 B1s. We’ve got 20 B2s. Is it one more airplane, the next bomber is one per coast? If we continue on that path, we’ve got a real problem. And the same is true for submarines, the same is true for ships. It is a real problem for us. Or, it is an opportunity to decide what we want to be and how we want to do it, and to prioritize, and we have not taken that on.”