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The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation is the Council’s affiliated 501(c)(3) research organization. |
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ARE WE DESTINED FOR A COLD WAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY? REGISTER NOW TO ATTEND OUR CONFERENCE REMOTELY Register NOW to attend the Center’s annual conference Tuesday, September 24, from the location of your choice. As a virtual attendee, you’ll be able to ask questions of our panelists and engage with other attendees as you hear more from our esteemed expert speakers and panelists. This year’s theme is, “Are We Destined for a Cold War in the 21st Century?” and it takes place next Tuesday, September 24, from 4:30-7 p.m. ET. The link to join us virtually will be emailed to you after you register. Our lineup of esteemed speakers and panelists will seek to answer one critical question: With rising nuclear tensions between the United States, Russia and China, and an increase in disruptive emerging technologies, are we headed toward another era of nuclear confrontation? Our first panel, moderated by W.J. Hennigan, lead writer of The New York Times’ At the Brink series, will discuss the future of the trilateral relationship between the United States, China and Russia. It will feature insights from Dr. Mariana Budjeryn and Dr. Francesca Giovannini of Harvard University’s Belfer Center Project on Managing the Atom and Dr. Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Our second panel, moderated by Colin Demarest of Axios, will dive into the dynamics of artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technology and their impact on our nuclear present and future. It will feature insights from Dr. Amy Nelson of New America’s Futures Lab, Dr. Page Stoutland, former Vice President for Scientific and Technical Affairs for the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and Gonzalo Suarez, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation. Norman Solomon, American journalist and Executive Director of the Institute for Public Accuracy, will deliver keynote remarks and Alexandra Bell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence and Stability, will offer closing remarks. |
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RUSSIA CONSIDERS CHANGING NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AS WAR LEAVES 1 MILLION+ DEAD OR INJURED In light of military reverses in the war in Ukraine, Russia doubled down on its nuclear threat policy by announcing it is considering adjusting its nuclear doctrine. A senior Russian official hinted at changes to reflect alleged Western threats, presumably to shift toward a more aggressive nuclear posture. This comes as the United States and European allies continue to increase support for Ukraine, which in turn has prompted fears of further escalation. Additionally, a possible nuclear cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran has raised international concern, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, about the transfer of nuclear technology to Iran. In parallel, U.S. researchers identified what they believe to be the launch site for Russia’s new nuclear-powered missile, signaling Russia’s continued advancements in missile technology despite international sanctions. The UN’s nuclear chief also recently visited a Russian atomic plant near the front lines and warned of the risks of nuclear incidents in the war zone. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has now resulted in more than one million dead or injured. Ukrainian forces are making slow but steady progress in their counteroffensive against deeply entrenched Russian defenses, particularly in the eastern and southern regions. Despite Western military aid to Ukraine, Russia has managed to maintain control of key areas that Ukraine has been targeting in its push into Russian territory. The Ukrainian government, backed by the United States, is pushing for more aggressive diplomatic efforts to end the war, as outlined in their latest strategic plan recently presented to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. However, with neither side demonstrating willingness to back down, the prospect of a negotiated settlement remains distant. Analysts warn that without more decisive military breakthroughs, the war could drag on indefinitely, deepening the humanitarian crisis. It is misleading, though, to judge success by incremental shifts of the front line. The war will be decided when one or both sides becomes tired of the ongoing waste of life and decides that the perceived benefit to continue the war is not worth the cost. |
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CHINA BLAMES U.S. FOR EXPANSION OF CHINESE ARSENAL Despite being the only nuclear state expanding its arsenal, China has expressed significant concern following reports that the United States may be altering its nuclear strategy. Beijing is attempting to portray its ongoing buildup as a reaction to a U.S. decision that has not been made, likely to add to the controversy. Some Chinese strategists are arguing that to maintain credible deterrence, China may need to expand its nuclear arsenal. This debate comes as China is also rapidly advancing its artificial intelligence capabilities. Although Chinese officials have been clear that these technologies should not be applied to nuclear weapons, the country recently refused to sign on to a non-binding proposal at a major AI summit in Seoul, South Korea, to keep AI from controlling nuclear weapons. On the international front, China’s cautious stance on nuclear arms control remains a point of contention, as Beijing continues to resist binding commitments to limit or reduce its nuclear arsenal. |
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NORTH KOREA CONTINUES ESCALATING NUCLEAR RHETORIC North Korea continues to escalate its nuclear rhetoric, with Kim Jong Un recently announcing plans to significantly increase the country’s nuclear arsenal and expand its warfighting capabilities. Recent satellite imagery revealed that Pyongyang is expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities and there is swirling concern that Pyongyang may be growing more comfortable with the idea of selling nuclear fuel and materials to rogue states. Additionally, North Korea has resumed ballistic missile testing, with the latest launches drawing sharp criticism from Japan and the United States. In recent weeks, North Korea has also showcased new military technologies including drones capable of carrying out explosive attacks. Kim also recently hosted former Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, signaling deepening military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow that could have broader geopolitical implications in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and beyond. |
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FAMILIAR TUNE: HOUSE IN DISARRAY Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: the House of Representatives has not succeeded in passing critical legislation. Over the past two weeks, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has tried in vain to pass a six-month continuing resolution coupled with the SAVE Act, which requires proof of citizenship before registering to vote in a federal election — a solution in search of a problem. After abandoning a vote last week, Speaker Johnson tried again Wednesday and failed when 14 Republicans joined almost all Democrats in opposing the measure. Government funding expires September 30 and Speaker Johnson will now likely have to go along with the Senate’s plan to pass a mostly clean continuing resolution through December. |
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DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION BILL TALKS UNDERWAY Staff-level negotiations on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) began this month. The Center released a comparative analysis of the House and Senate versions to show what remains to be ironed out. Topline takeaways from both versions:
No formal action is expected until after the election. |
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COUNTDOWN: 45 DAYS UNTIL POLLS CLOSE With only 45 days left until polls close, our endorsed candidates across the country are engaging potential supporters with their message and encouraging them to vote. It takes money to do all of that, from buying water bottles for campaign volunteers going door-to-door on hot days, to taking out ads on social media and television, to renting out space for events and more. We are in the home stretch and our endorsed candidates could use your support! Please consider making donations to our newest endorsed House candidates: Ashley Ehasz (D-PA-01), Shomari Figures (D-AL-02), John Mannion (D-NY-22) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI-08). You can see the full list of our endorsed candidates at the bottom of this newsletter from now until November. Meanwhile, we urge you to flag the following pages that will be updated throughout the election cycle: Donate to all or some endorsed Senate candidates | Donate to all or some endorsed House candidates | Donate to all or some endorsed House and Senate candidates. You can also find bios and donation links for all of candidates on our respective House and Senate candidate list pages. |
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COUNCIL MAKES SECOND-EVER PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT: VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS The Council for a Livable World Board of Directors voted unanimously this week to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for President, marking only the second time the Council has endorsed a Presidential candidate in its 62-year history. The Biden administration’s nuclear weapons policy has been disappointing at times; however, each election is about choices. One candidate is about confrontation and escalation. The other promises greater emphasis on dialogue and peaceful solutions. The contrast is clear and, therefore, so was our choice. For the next 45 days, our goal is to work toward a Harris victory as well as a victory for candidates who can curb dangerous policies like the ones outlined in Project 2025. |
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NEW ON THE NUKES OF HAZARD BLOG: NUKES AND CLIMATE CHANGE, MOVING PAST THE COLD WAR LENS ON CHINA Heatwaves and H-Bombs: The Nuclear Triad’s Vulnerabilities to Climate Change: Research Analyst Shawn Rostker details the dangers climate change presents to each leg of the nuclear triad, such as flooding and fire risks at missile silos across the Great Plains, extreme heat at bomber bases in Missouri and coastal flooding in Georgia. This challenge also presents an opportunity to work with other nuclear weapons states dealing with similar issues, he writes, and it should impact U.S. policy. “Choices made today, including which nuclear modernization programs to pursue, what kind of force structure and posture to establish, and what arms control policies to prioritize will all have consequences in a world physically and socially redefined by climate change.” Addressing the China Challenge: The Fallacy of Relying on a Cold War Lens for Nuclear Issues: Policy intern Sarah Kirchner-Barney writes about the importance of moving beyond a Cold War lens when it comes to addressing China’s increasing nuclear ambitions. “China is not the Soviet Union. Nor is it Russia. Geopolitical competition and nuclear deterrence do not and should not by themselves make another Cold War. However, pushing the ‘new Cold War’ mentality risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.” |
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CONSIDER BECOMING A MONTHLY DONOR As election season continues, the Council is also hard at work on its advocacy on Capitol Hill. Have you considered making a monthly donation to support our efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear threats through political action? You can donate as little as $1 a month. Become a monthly supporter today! |
