To: Interested Parties
From: Mike Bocian
Date: January 19, 2012
Heinrich Holds Commanding Lead in NM Senate Primary
A new poll of Democratic primary voters in New Mexico shows Martin Heinrich with a commanding lead over Hector Balderas, 52 – 22 percent. Heinrich’s standing is very strong and his lead is built on more than name identification – he leads by a huge margin among voters who can identify both candidates, 51 – 28 percent.
The following are key findings from a survey of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in New Mexico conducted January 8th – 11th, 2012. The survey was conducted by live interviewers, reaching voters on land lines and cell phones. The results are subject to a 4.0 percentage point margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level.
= Democratic primary voters view Heinrich incredibly favorable. 58 percent of voters give Heinrich a favorable rating, while just 12 percent view him unfavorably. Moreover, 66 percent of voters approve of the job Heinrich is doing as Congressman. Heinrich’s standing is equally good among Hispanics and Anglos. Balderas has good standing (37 – 12 percent favorable-unfavorable, 46 percent job approval), but nowhere near as good as Heinrich’s.
= Heinrich overpowers Balderas in a vote matchup. With a 52 – 22 percent lead, Heinrich dominates Balderas among every segment of the electorate. He leads 57 – 15 percent among Anglos and 46 – 30 percent among Hispanics. Heinrich also holds a strong lead in each of the state’s three congressional districts.
= Heinrich’s lead is very robust. Heinrich’s lead is not driven by name identification; he leads 51 – 28 percent among voters who can identify both candidates.
Vote among all Vote among voters who can
Voters identify both candidates
52% 51% Martin Heinrich
22% 28% Hector Balderas
26% 21% Undecided