Chris Cilizza is far from being the only expert to predict a larger-than-expected pick up of Democratic seats in November.
Out of 21 shifts in the predictions of four expert resources – the Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Stuart Rothenberg’s Political Report – just three moved in the direction beneficial for Republicans. (Rothenberg shifted Louisiana’s race to a narrow Republican advantage and North Carolina to “leans Republican,” and Sabato moved Minnesota into the “leans Republican” category.)
These slight shifts were far less in number and intensity than the predicted upswing for Democratic pick-ups. Most notably are the remarkable changes in Georgia’s race where incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) is now in a tight struggle to hold onto his seat against challenger (and Council-endorsed) Jim Martin (D). Months ago, this seat wasn’t predicted by many to even have a long-shot chance of turning Democratic – See the difference between Sabato’s “solid Republican” rating from July and the other much more recent – and much more indefinite – ratings.
In other good news for Democrats, all four experts moved Ted Stevens’ (R) race in Alaska into the Democratic column, and all but Sabato predicted significanly lower Republican strength in Kentucky. CQ and Rothenberg predicted a tighter race for incumbent Gordon Smith (R) against Council-endorsed challenger Jeff Merkley in Oregon, as well as an even better chance of winning for Council-endorsed Mark Udall in Colorado.
Full compilation of these expert predictions available after the jump.
Top Tier Senate Races
Alaska
Incumbent Ted Stevens (R) vs. Mark Begich (D)
Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat
Colorado
OPEN (Allard-R): Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat
Georgia
Incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage
Louisiana
Incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) vs. John Kennedy (R)
Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage
Maine
Incumbent Susan Collins (R) vs. Tom Allen (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Clear Republican advantage
Minnesota
Incumbent Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D) [Council endorsee] vs. Dean Barkley (I)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up
Mississippi
Incumbent Roger Wicker (R) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No clear favorite
Larry Sabato’;s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage
New Hampshire
Incumbent John Sununu (R) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat
New Jersey
Incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) [Council endorsee] vs. Richard Zimmer (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Democrat
New Mexico
OPEN (Domenici – R): Steve Pearce (R) vs. Tom Udall (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat Favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Likely Democrat
Oregon
Incumbent Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No clear favorite
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat
Virginia
OPEN (Warner – R): Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mark Warner (D)
Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Likely Democrat
Potentially Close Contests
Idaho
OPEN (Craig): Jim Risch (R) vs. Larry LaRocco (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican
Kansas
Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) vs. Jim Slattery (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican
Kentucky
Incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)
Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage
Nebraska
OPEN (Hagel): Mike Johanns (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D)
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican
North Carolina
Incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Toss-up
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat
Oklahoma
Incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) vs. Andy Rice (D)
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican
South Dakota
Incumbent Tim Johnson (D) [Council endorsee] vs. Joel Dykstra (R)
Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Democrat
Texas
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) vs. Rick Noriega (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican
Last Updated
Cook Political Report: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008
Congressional Quarterly: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008
