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You are here: Home / Blog / Other Expert Predictions: 2008 Senate Races

October 16, 2008

Other Expert Predictions: 2008 Senate Races

Chris Cilizza is far from being the only expert to predict a larger-than-expected pick up of Democratic seats in November.

Out of 21 shifts in the predictions of four expert resources – the Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Stuart Rothenberg’s Political Report – just three moved in the direction beneficial for Republicans. (Rothenberg shifted Louisiana’s race to a narrow Republican advantage and North Carolina to “leans Republican,” and Sabato moved Minnesota into the “leans Republican” category.)

These slight shifts were far less in number and intensity than the predicted upswing for Democratic pick-ups. Most notably are the remarkable changes in Georgia’s race where incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) is now in a tight struggle to hold onto his seat against challenger (and Council-endorsed) Jim Martin (D). Months ago, this seat wasn’t predicted by many to even have a long-shot chance of turning Democratic – See the difference between Sabato’s “solid Republican” rating from July and the other much more recent – and much more indefinite – ratings.

In other good news for Democrats, all four experts moved Ted Stevens’ (R) race in Alaska into the Democratic column, and all but Sabato predicted significanly lower Republican strength in Kentucky. CQ and Rothenberg predicted a tighter race for incumbent Gordon Smith (R) against Council-endorsed challenger Jeff Merkley in Oregon, as well as an even better chance of winning for Council-endorsed Mark Udall in Colorado.

Full compilation of these expert predictions available after the jump.

Top Tier Senate Races

Alaska

Incumbent Ted Stevens (R) vs. Mark Begich (D)
Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat

Colorado

OPEN (Allard-R): Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat

Georgia

Incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage

Louisiana

Incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) vs. John Kennedy (R)
Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage

Maine

Incumbent Susan Collins (R) vs. Tom Allen (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Clear Republican advantage

Minnesota

Incumbent Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D) [Council endorsee] vs. Dean Barkley (I)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up

Mississippi

Incumbent Roger Wicker (R) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No clear favorite
Larry Sabato’;s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage

New Hampshire

Incumbent John Sununu (R) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat

New Jersey

Incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) [Council endorsee] vs. Richard Zimmer (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Democrat

New Mexico

OPEN (Domenici – R): Steve Pearce (R) vs. Tom Udall (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat Favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Likely Democrat

Oregon

Incumbent Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D) [Council endorsee]
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No clear favorite
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat

Virginia

OPEN (Warner – R): Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mark Warner (D)
Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Likely Democrat

Potentially Close Contests

Idaho

OPEN (Craig): Jim Risch (R) vs. Larry LaRocco (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican

Kansas

Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) vs. Jim Slattery (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican

Kentucky

Incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)
Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Narrow Republican advantage

Nebraska

OPEN (Hagel): Mike Johanns (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D)
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican

North Carolina

Incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Toss-up
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Democrat

Oklahoma

Incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) vs. Andy Rice (D)
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican

South Dakota

Incumbent Tim Johnson (D) [Council endorsee] vs. Joel Dykstra (R)
Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democrat
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Democrat

Texas

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) vs. Rick Noriega (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican favored
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican

Last Updated

Cook Political Report: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008
Congressional Quarterly: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report: ongoing, updated October 16, 2008

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