Council for a Livable World

Who would have thunk it. The October 7 debate was the town hall format in which John McCain was supposed to shine. The Vice Presidential debate last week set a bar so low that Gov. Sarah Palin was sure to exceed it. The first presidential debate cou…

The recently passed financial bailout package has drawn the ire of citizens throughout the United States. Both conservatives and liberals have condemned Congress and the White House for rescuing Wall Street titans, who caused the economic death spiral in the first place, by transferring an enormous fiscal burden to middle- and working-class taxpayers. At a time when people are losing their homes and struggling to make ends meet, many Americans find the bailout’s $700 billion price tag to be simply outrageous.

What many Americans may not realize is that the United States is likely to spend $711 billion on national defense in the fiscal year that began on October 1, 2008 (assuming fiscal year 2009 war costs are $170 billion, an estimate provided by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates). You read that correctly: the United States will spend more on defense over the next 365 days than on the $700 bailout package.

This graph compares estimated U.S. defense spending in fiscal year (FY) 2009 to the bailout, previous U.S. conflicts, and other federal spending priorities. Click on it to see the full-size version.

Two polls out today show Council endorsed candidates with solid leads in Minnesota and New York.  

The New York poll:
Eric Massa (D): 47
Rep. Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

Massa nearly won against Kuhl with little support from outside the district in 2006.  This year he is receiving significant support from the national party, and Kuhl is not running a vigorous campaign.  In fact, Kuhl is currently refusing to debate Massa.  When an incumbent refuses to debate, that’s a sure sign their campaign is in trouble.

Learn more about Eric Massa here.

The Minnesota poll:
Ashwin Madia (D): 44
Erik Paulsen (R): 39
David Dillon (IP): 8
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

This is an open-seat race to replace retiring  Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad.  Madia argues that his positions are actually closer to the moderate Ramstad’s than the hyper-conservative Paulsen’s are.  Paulsen has charged that Madia, the 30 year old son of Indian immigrants who also served in Iraq, does not have the “suburban life experience” needed to properly represent Minnesotans.  Whatever that means.

You can learn more about Madia here.

 

The political world was abuzz last week with the news that John McCain is suspending campaign activities in Michigan.  Michigan is one of the few states that normally votes Democratic that McCain thought he could flip Republican.  With this development McCain is not only effectively ceding 17 electoral votes to Obama, but he has drastically reduced the number of strategies that can get him to the magic 270 votes needed to win.

With all the focus on the ramifications of this development on the Presidential race, it is only today that the media has started looking at how this plays out in races for the Senate and House of Representatives.  Today’s Wall Street Journal took a look, and the short answer in Michigan Republicans are Freaked Out:

The presidential candidate’s decision last week to stop campaigning in Michigan and scale back advertising there triggered complaints from state party leaders that the withdrawal could undercut in particular two Republican members of Congress facing tough re-election challenges at a time when the party is struggling to contain its losses on Capitol Hill.

“I am sure you’ve heard the news by now that the McCain Campaign decided to pull out of Michigan,” Chairman Saul Anuzis, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, wrote in a fund-raising email to supporters marked URGENT. “This move leaves a tremendous hole in our ground campaign that we must now fill.” Mr. Anuzis cited the potential fallout for the re-election drives of Reps. Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg.

Candidates down the ballot count on the Presidential campaigns to keep local activists excited and to fund and direct get-out-the-vote efforts.

With the McCain camp publicly admitting defeat, funding and volunteers for these critical on-the-ground efforts will be in short supply.  In short, two very close races just got a whole lot closer.

Council for a Livable World has endorsed Gary Peters, the Democrat running against Rep. Joe Knollenberg.

You can read more about his campaign here.

 

Minnesota is host to one of the more interesting Senate contests this year.  Funneyman  Al Franken (D) is challenging first-term incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R) in one of the more compelling and expensive Senate races of 2008.

Now, after millions of dollars of ads from both major candidates plus independent expenditures galore, it is hard to tell who is winning.

Just to complicate things, there is a major third party candidate, Dean Barkley, who served as a temporary appointed Senator after the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone in a 2002 plane crash.

The volley of negative ads by the two major candidates is clearly helping the underfunded Barkley.

So who is ahead?

If you believe the SurveyUSA poll conducted September 30 – October 1, Coleman leads by 10 points, 43% to 33%, with 19% for the independent.

But in a Minnesota Star Tribune poll taken at virtually the same time – September 30 – October 2 – Franken leads by 9 points, 43% – 34%, with 18% for Barkley.  

A Democratic poll, by the Mellman Group, also has Franken up, but by a narrow margin of 2 points.

So who is ahead?  Who is going to win? Darned if I know.

Stay tuned, and check back frequently.  This compendium will be updated almost every weekday.

Full polling data is here.