Iran

Impact of Iran Sanctions Widens
Rick Gladstone, New York Times – April 4, 2012
The Iran sanctions effort led by the United States appeared to be causing new fractures in the Iranian economy on Tuesday, with leading oil companies in South Africa and Greece suspending imports of Iran’s crude oil, further signs of emergency self-reliance emerging in Iran, and an influential former Iranian president publicly challenging his country’s anti-American stoicism.

Can Brazil Stop Iran?
Bernard Aronson, New York Times – April 3, 2012
Brazil, the saying used to go, is the land of the future — and always will be. But when Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, visits the White House next week, she will come as the leader of a country whose future has arrived.

Don’t Fear a Nuclear Armed Iran
Stephen A. Cook, NPR – April 3, 2012
On March 21, Haaretz correspondent Ari Shavit wrote a powerful op-ed in the New York Times that began with this stark and stunning claim: “An Iranian atom bomb will force Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt to acquire their own atom bombs.” Indeed, it has become axiomatic among Middle East watchers, nonproliferation experts, Israel’s national security establishment, and a wide array of U.S. government officials that Iranian proliferation will lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. President Barack Obama himself, in a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) last month, said that if Iran went nuclear, it was “almost certain that others in the region would feel compelled to get their own nuclear weapon.

Self-Defeating
Trita Parsi, Daily Beast – April 3, 2012
Netanyahu’s government and its supporters argue that a strike on Iran will benefit Israel and America.  But a strike on Iran won’t destory it’s nuclear facilities, and are more likely benefit than harm Iran in the long run.

Iraq Says Iran Proposes Baghdad as Nuclear Talks Venue
Reuters – April 4, 2012
Iran has proposed holding the next round of talks with six world powers over its disputed nuclear program next week in Iraq instead of Turkey, Iraq’s foreign minister said on Wednesday.

Korean Peninsula

Ahead of Threatened NKorean Rocket Launch, Nuke Agency Cautious on Offer to Visit
Associated Press – April 3, 2012
As international tensions rise over a planned North Korean rocket launch, the U.N. nuclear agency is taking a wait-and-see attitude on an offer from the North to allow agency experts back into the country, according to a letter shared Tuesday with The Associated Press.

Images Show North Korea Launch Work
Foster Klug, Associated Press – April 2, 2012
New satellite images of a North Korean rocket launch site show a mobile radar trailer and rows of what appear to be empty fuel and oxidizer tanks, evidence of ramped-up preparation for what Washington calls a cover for a long-range missile test.

Missile Defense

Kyl Continues Offensive Against Obama on Missile Defense
Jeremy Herb, The Hill – April 3, 2012
Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) continued a Republican offensive against President Obama on missile defense for his comments last week to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev where Obama asked for “space” and “flexibility” until after the election.

India

India to Test Long-Range Missile in Two Weeks
Nuclear Threat Initiative – April 2, 2012
India intends in two weeks to conduct the initial trial of its experimental Agni 5 ballistic missile, the head of the country’s Defense Research and Development Organization said on Saturday.

by Tara Chandra

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) brought the issue of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) back into the arms control spotlight on March 30 with the release of a much-anticipated report that evaluated the technical ability of the United States to maintain a safe and reliable nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing. A summary of the report on the CTBT and a link to the full 215-page text can be found here. This 2012 report is an update to the 2002 study that was conducted on the same subject.

The CTBT was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in September 1996. The United States was the first country to sign the treaty in 1996, but it was rejected by the Senate in 1999. Although many of the mechanisms necessary to implement and enforce the Treaty are already in place, it cannot enter into force until 44 states deemed to be “nuclear capable” sign and ratify it. Among those that have yet to ratify the treaty are the United States, Iran, China, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and Egypt.

Opponents of the Treaty argue that the United States can’t ensure the safety, security, and reliability of its nuclear arsenal without testing. They also argue that the treaty is unverifiable.

The NAS report refutes both claims. It concludes “that the United States is now better able to maintain a safe and effective nuclear stockpile and to monitor clandestine nuclear-explosion testing than at any time in the past.”

Regarding the maintenance of the arsenal, the report states:  “Provided that sufficient resources and a national commitment to stockpile stewardship are in place, the committee judges that the United States has the technical capabilities to maintain a safe, secure, and reliable stockpile of nuclear weapons into the foreseeable future without nuclear-explosion testing.”

The U.S. has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992. Both Republican and Democratic Presidents have maintained this unilateral moratorium and this has not lessened the crediblity of the U.S. nuclear deterrent.

The NAS report also refutes the claim that it is not possible to verify compliance with the Treaty: “The United States has technical capabilities to monitor nuclear explosions in four environments – underground, underwater, in the atmosphere, and in space.” The panel goes on to say that “the status of U.S national monitoring and the International Monitoring System has improved to levels better than predicted in 1999.”

Lastly, those who continue to oppose CTBT ratification argue that the other critical states that have not yet ratified the CTBT will continue to test, while the United States will be bound by the treaty’s constraints. To date, 157 countries have ratified the Treaty, with the notable exceptions of the United States, China, North Korea, Iran, India, and Pakistan. However, the leaders of many of these non-ratifying nations have stated either publicly or privately that they would strongly consider ratification if the United States were to ratify the Treaty.  

The United States has the best developed and most frequently tested nuclear arsenal of any other country, so by locking in a worldwide moratorium on testing, we would ensure ourselves an enormous edge. Furthermore, through ratification, we will strengthen our ability to deter and detect cheating and prevent other nuclear armed states from improving their arsenals through testing.

Moreover, as the unofficial “enforcer” of the global non-proliferation regime, the United States needs to lead by example. Ratifying the CTBT will strengthen U.S. leadership on non-proliferation, thereby putting us in a  stronger bargaining position when seeking international support for dealing with rogue states.

Dear Mittens: Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney recently called  Russia “without question, our No. 1 geopolitical foe” while criticizing President Obama for remarks he made about missile defense in front of a live microphone.   …

Iran Iran will retaliate if attacked, but how? Ben Bimbaum, Washington Times – April 2, 2012 Middle East analysts are certain that Iran would retaliate if Israel strikes its nuclear facilities, though the size, nature and targets of the counterattack r…

Iran

Clinton to Iran: Show that nuclear arms not sought
Bradley Klapper, Associated Press – April 1, 2012
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday urged Iran to back up its declaration that Islam bars weapons of mass destruction by agreeing to a plan that would prove it does not intend to develop nuclear arms.

Korean Peninsula

Images show North Korea launch work
Foster Klug, Associated Press – April 2, 2012
New satellite images of a North Korean rocket launch site show a mobile radar trailer and rows of what appear to be empty fuel and oxidizer tanks, evidence of ramped-up preparation for what Washington calls a cover for a long-range missile test.

North Korea Party Calls for Leadership Meeting
New York Times – April 2, 2012
North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party will convene a representatives’ conference on April 11, the country’s state-ran news agency, K.C.N.A., reported on Monday. Analysts said the rare meeting was expected to anoint the new North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, as the official head of the party.

Rocket to cost North equivalent of feeding 19 mil. for 1 year
Yonhap News Agency – April 2, 2012
This month’s long-range rocket launch will cost North Korea some US$850 million, the equivalent of feeding 19 million people for one year, intelligence authorities in Seoul estimated Monday.

Nuclear Testing

U.S. Has No Need to Test Atomic Arsenal
Matthew Wald, New York Times – March 31, 2012
The United States does not need to explode nuclear weapons in order to be sure its aging arsenal is still potent, and its ability to detect weapons tests by others is good, according to a report released Friday by the National Academy of Sciences.

Middle East

In Yemen, lines blur as U.S. steps up airstrikes
Ken Dilanian and David S. Cloud, Los Angeles Times – April 2, 2012
A surveillance aircraft operated by the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command flew over southeastern Yemen on the evening of March 9, tracking a mid-level Al Qaeda commander as he drove to his mountain hideout.

U.S. Joins Effort to Equip and Pay Rebels in Syria
Steven Lee Myers, New York Times – April 2, 2012
The United States and dozens of other countries moved closer on Sunday to direct intervention in the fighting in Syria, with Arab nations pledging $100 million to pay opposition fighters and the Obama administration agreeing to send communications equipment to help rebels organize and evade Syria’s military, according to participants gathered here.