Senators Graham (R-SC), Lieberman (I-Conn) and Casey (D-Pa) stand for reckless Senate action that has the effect of undermining President Obama’s diplomatic efforts and use of economic sanctions to pressure Iran from building nuclear weapons. These Sen…

So who is going to win the election?  Which party will win control of the Senate in November?  Tell us what is going to happen?

My stock answer:  I don’t know.

Or better yet, I dunno.

There are the professional pundits and experts who will be glad to render an opinion, and they do. In their columns, blogs and t.v. programs, they will boldly cast off doubt and tell us who is going to win.

The may preface their remarks with, my prediction as of today . . .

But the more sensible answer is, I don’t know.

There are too many imponderables – what is the state of the economy, who will win the presidency, who is the Republican nominee for President, who do voters blame for gridlock in Washington, D.C.

There are too many unknowns between now and November  – will there be war in Iran, will gas prices sky rocket, will the Supreme Court overturn the health care bill.

Events this past week justify caution.

Maine Senator Olympia Snowe (R), rolling towards a fourth term, stunned the political world by announcing her retirement at the end of this term. A seat that Republicans knew was safe in the bank suddenly went to toss up, with Democrats having a real chance to take the seat.

And Nebraska’s former Senator Robert Kerrey (D), after initially saying he would not try for a comeback, reversed course and is running.  Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D) seat will still be difficult for Democrats to hold, but the impossible became possible.

So predictions confidently made a week ago now look sadly out of date.

Democrats are looking better in the Senate and Republicans worse.

As a result, my prediction is . . . stay tuned.  I dunno.

Korean Peninsula

North Korea agrees to ‘nuclear moratorium’
BBC News – February 29, 2012
North Korea has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, as well as nuclear and long-range missile tests, US and North Korean officials say. The US State Department said the North had also agreed to allow UN inspectors to monitor its reactor in Yongbyon to verify compliance with the measures. In return, Washington is set to provide Pyongyang with some 240,000 tonnes of food aid.

Amid Tensions, U-2 Spy Planes Keep Watch on NKorea
CBS News – February 29, 2012
As a sleek black U-2 roars back from a mission, Pontiac cars zoom along the runway to help it touch down using a method unchanged for more than 50 years ago when this Cold War-era aircraft was cutting-edge.

Iran

U.S. Sees Iran Attacks as Likely if Israel Strikes
Thom Shanker, Helene Cooper, Ethan Bronner, New York Times – February 29, 2012
American officials who have assessed the likely Iranian responses to any attack by Israel on its nuclear program believe that Iran would retaliate by launching missiles on Israel and terrorist-style attacks on United States civilian and military personnel overseas.

Obama Likely to Resist Pressure to Futher Toughen Iran Stance
Paul Richter and Christi Parsons, LA Times – February 28, 2012
The White House indicated Tuesday that President Obama would resist pressure for a tougher Iran policy coming from Israel and some U.S. lawmakers who argue that Tehran should not be allowed to acquire even the capability to eventually develop a nuclear weapon.

Do Israelis Support a Strike on Iran?
Shibley Telhami, Politico – February 28, 2012
When President Barack Obama meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington next week, Iran’s nuclear program is likely to top their agenda. With increasing signals that Israel may be contemplating a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the United States and its European allies have made no secret of their opposition.

Iran: Military Decides if IAEA Can Visit Parchin
Reuters – February 29, 2012
It is up to Iran’s military to decide whether U.N. nuclear inspectors can visit a site they want to see as part of their investigation of Iranian nuclear activities, a senior Iranian official said on Wednesday.

Iran Calls Nuclear Weapons Arms Production a ‘Great Sin’
Nick Cumming-Bruce, New York Times – February 28, 2012
Amid heightened tensions with the West over its nuclear program, Iran on Tuesday called for negotiations on a treaty banning nuclear weapons and condemned their production or possession as “a great sin.”

U.S

Senate Budget Chair Says More Pentagon Cuts Likely
David Alexander, Reuters – February 28, 2012
The head of the Senate Budget Committee delivered a sobering message to top U.S. defense officials on Tuesday, saying the Pentagon will have to reduce spending beyond the $487 billion already proposed if the United States is going to deal with its $15 trillion debt

Panetta to Congress: Don’t Balance Budget with Added Cuts to Defense
Jeremy Herb, The Hill – February 28, 2012
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned senators Tuesday that they can’t expect to fix the nation’s financial problems on the back of the Pentagon.

Senators Clash Over Idea of More Pentagon Cuts
Associated Press – February 28, 2012
Leading senators on the Budget Committee clashed Tuesday over whether the Pentagon could bear even deeper budget cuts, with defense officials warning that additional reductions would hit jobs across the 50 states and affect national security.

Iran

Israel Won’t Tip off U.S
Associated Press – February 27, 2012
Israeli officials say they won’t warn the United States if they decide to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, according to one U.S. intelligence official familiar with the discussions. The pronouncement, delivered in a series of private, top-level conversations, sets a tense tone ahead of meetings in the coming days at the White House and Capitol Hill.

U.S. Considers New Message on Iran
Carole Lee and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal – February 28, 2012
Complaints from Israel about the U.S.’s public engagement with Iran have pushed the White House to consider more forcefully outlining potential military actions, and the “red lines” Iran must not cross, as soon as this weekend, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Don’t Let Iran Be a Second Iraq
Jamal Abdi and Trita Parsi, The Hill – February 27, 2012
Just as with the lead-up to the Iraq War, the pathway to war with Iran will be paved with false assertions, self-fulfilling saber rattling and political weakness that might seem insignificant now, but will in retrospect turn out to be disastrous.

Iran FM Calls for More Talks on Nuclear Issue
Associated Press – February 28, 2012
Iran’s foreign minister has called for other countries to chose engagement over confrontation in resolving their differences over his nation’s nuclear program.

Attacking Nuke Sites May ONly Slow Progress
Kristina Wong, Washington Times – February 27, 2012
Former high-ranking defense officials and regional experts say that neither the U.S. nor Israel can stop Iran from producing a nuclear weapon.

Korean Peninsula

N. Korea ‘Ready for War’ as South Korea, U.S. Stage War Games
Lee Jae Won, Reuters – February 27, 2012
North Korea says it is ready for “total war” with South Korea and the United States, as the two countries commenced mass joint war drills near its border.

U.S

U.S. States Seek to Contain Harm as Pentagon Plans Defense Cuts
Michael C. Bender, Bloomberg – February 28, 2012
States that stand to suffer most from proposed defense cuts are mobilizing to mitigate economic harm, according to interviews with 10 governors.

The Case for Considering Arms Cuts
Paul Monroe, Politico – February 26, 2012
The media reported recently that President Barack Obama, as commander in chief, has asked our military leadership to present him with a range of options for the future nuclear force. Reportedly the options run the gamut from a force of 300 nuclear weapons to maintaining the status quo.

IRAN

Retired general: U.S. can’t stop Iran from making nukes
Kristina Wong, Washington Times – February 24, 2012
A former high-ranking military official says the U.S. does not have the ability to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

New IAEA report shows Iran expands nuclear enrichment at Natanz
Laura Rozen, Yahoo News (Blog) – February 24, 2012
A new UN atomic watchdog agency report raises concerns about Iran’s rapid expansion of enrichment activities, as well as its continued foot-dragging in refusing to answer questions about suspected military dimensions of its nuclear program. But the new assessment also hinted at possible technical problems Iran is experiencing, nuclear experts said.

Iran may be “struggling” with new nuclear machines
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters – February 27, 2012
Iran is still relying on old technology to expand its nuclear programme, in what may be a sign it is having difficulties developing modern machines that could speed up production of potential bomb material.

Israeli attack on Iran might pull US into new war
Robert Burns, Associated Press – February 26, 2012
An Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear sites could draw the U.S. into a new Mideast conflict, a prospect dreaded by a war-weary Pentagon wary of new entanglements. That could mean pressing into service the top tier of American firepower — warplanes, warships, special operations forces and possibly airborne infantry — with unpredictable outcomes in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

AFGHANISTAN

Drawdown Pace Criticized
Julian E. Barnes, Wall Street Journal – February 27, 2012
Republicans stepped up criticism of President Barack Obama’s handling of the Afghanistan war over the weekend, with defense hawks saying the administration’s current drawdown plans were misguided, potentially putting U.S. forces at risk.

MISSILE DEFENSE

U.S. general confirms defense shield radar site in Turkey
Dusan Stojanovic, Associated Press – February 26, 2012
U.S. forces are now manning a new radar defense site in Turkey that could help defend Europe from a potential Iranian ballistic-missile attack, the U.S. Army’s commander in Europe said Sunday.

OTHER

NSA Chief Seeks Bigger Cybersecurity Role
Siobhan Gorman, Wall Street Journal – February 26, 2012
The National Security Agency director and other intelligence officials have been making the case within the Obama administration that the NSA should play a bigger role in protecting computer networks in the U.S., according to current and former U.S. officials.

U.S. Teaming With New Yemen Government on Strategy to Combat Al Qaeda
Eric Schmitt, New York TImes – February 26, 2012
The Obama administration is embarking on an ambitious and potentially risky plan to help the new government in Yemen overhaul its military to combat the Qaeda franchise that has exploited the political turmoil there to seize control of large swaths of the country’s south.