Frank Gaffney, one of the right wings most extreme figures, goes off the deep end once again. A long-time lover of missile defense, he finds conspiracies where there are none to prove that President Obama is selling missile defense down the river to Is…

Jockeying for the Democratic Nod in Pennsylvania

After a hectic few weeks, the crowded field for the Democratic nomination to succeed the recently deceased Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) seems to be narrowing down.   Democratic party leaders will choose a nominee on March 6th.

There was initial speculation that Murtha’s widow, Joyce Murtha, might receive the nomination.  However, she indicated earlier this week that she was not interested in filling the position and endorsed Murtha district director Mark Critz.  Another potential candidate, former Lt. Governor Mark Singel, dropped out yesterday and also endorsed Critz.  That leaves Critz and former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer as the leading candidates, although there are a few dark horse candidates remaining as well.  With the high profile endorsements of Singel and Joyce Murtha, Critz may be the favorite.

On the Republican side, party officials have failed to recruit any marquee names.  They are left to select between the ’08 nominee, William Russell, and local businessman and first-time candidate Tim Burns.  Party officials are rumored to be leaning toward Burns, but Russell has indicated a willingness to run as an Independent spoiler if he does not get the Republican nomination.  If Russell follows through on those threats, whoever the Democratic nominee is would be heavily favored to win.

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Republicans Avoid Divisive Primaries in AK and NJ

Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief after tough primary elections evaporated in battleground states this week:

•    In NJ-03 Toms River Township Councilor Maurice Hill dropped out of the race to challenge freshman Rep. John Adler (D).  That leaves a clear field for party favorite and ex-Philadelphia Eagles player Jon Runyan.  With built in name recognition from his football career Runyan poses a strong challenge to Adler in theory.  But Runyan is an untested campaigner whereas Adler is highly experienced and well funded, so stay tuned for further developments.
•    In the Alaska at-large seat, political blogger Andrew Halcro appears to be backing off a challenge to Rep. Don Young (R).  Young has been dogged by allegations of corruption over the years.  He still faces businessman and lawyer Sheldon Fisher in the primary and will then have to take on Democrat state Rep. Harry Crawford in the general election.

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Fact, Fiction and Statistics

Over at the ever educational 538.com, Nate Silver convincingly debunks the myth the incumbents polling less than 50% in the year before an election are likely to go down in defeat.

Like most posts at 538.com this gets into pretty dense statistics pretty quickly.  You can read the whole article here, but here is a quick summary of his findings:

1) It is extremely common for an incumbent come back to win re-election while having less than 50 percent of the vote in early polls.

2) In comparison to early polls, there is no demonstrable tendency for challengers to pick up a larger share of the undecided vote than incumbents.

3) Incumbents almost always get a larger share of the actual vote than they do in early polls (as do challengers).

4) However, the incumbent’s vote share in early polls may in fact be a better predictor of the final margin in the race than the opponent’s vote share, ie – if an incumbent is leading by four points in the early polls, they are likely to win by four points in the election, even if both candidates end up with larger totals in the end.

Former Alaska Governor has said some crazy things over the years, but perhaps none so whacko as her recent comments on Fox about war with Iran . “Say he [Obama] decided to declare war on Iran,” she said on Fox News last week. “I think people would per…

While many people were rightly upset over a  recent piece in The Cable by Josh Rogin entitled “No ‘New START’ in 2010, Hill sources predict,” they may have overlooked some very important words by Arizona Senator John Kyl.

Kyl is the bête noire of those promoting a new nuclear reductions treaty and a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

He has sent a series of missives along with many of his colleagues raising issues such as nuclear weapons modernization and missile defense. He has also delivered a number of speeches on the same topics.

As the British would say, he is constantly throwing a spanner into the works (i.e., monkey wrenches).  

But check out what kyl said in the recent Rogin story.

“Unless it is accompanied by a [nuclear] modernization program that satisfies the requirements of the secretary of defense, it would be very difficult for the Senate to support the new START treaty.”

If that is his gold standard, then he will get his wish — perhaps the gold, silver and bronze.

Defense Secretary Gates is one of the key architects of the Administration’s nuclear weapons policy as reflected in the recent Obama budget submission, the on-going Nuclear Posture Review and Vice President Biden’s recent OpEd in the Wall Street Journal.

Just last week, Secretary Gates introduced the Vice President at his National Defense University speech explaining the Administration’s nuclear weapons policy.  

Also there was State Department Under Secretary Ellen Tauscher, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright, National Nuclear Security Agency Administrator Thomas D’Agostino and other officials.

The message was clear:  The Obama nuclear policies are the Obama-Biden-Gates-Cartright-Tauscher-D’Agostino nuclear policies.

If Senator Kyl will only support New START if Gates is happy with the nuclear modernization program, then we have, in the immortal words of George Tenet, a slam dunk.

Kyl did not stop with that quote.

He went on to express  his concerns about Russian statements about missile defense.

But again, let’s look at the tape.

On nuclear modernization, he suggested it would be “very difficult for the Senate to support” the new treaty unless Gates concerns have been answered.

On Russian assertions, he used milder words such “very troubling” and “very damaging.”

In no event did Senator Kyl say he would oppose the new treaty — unless Gates is not a happy man.

Kyl clearly will continue throwing spanners into the works.

But pay close attention to his words. He continues to stop short of outright opposition to the new START treaty.

President Obama has finally achieved the bipartisanship for which he has been virtually begging since his agenda collapsed in Congress in the first year of his term. And the Republican partisan who showed him the way was former Vice President Richard C…