In an editorial last week, the Washington Times sent a clear message to world leaders on Iran, “If you want peace, prepare for war.”

We need you help to send a message that the Washington Times could not be further from the mark.

Saber-rattling and fear tactics are counter-productive. Threats of military action bolster the positions of hardliners in Iran’s government and weaken the position of anti-nuclear moderates in the region.

They also undermine diplomatic hopes for a negotiated settlement.

The Times goes so far as to state that, “Compared to the 2002 case for war against Saddam Hussein, [the case for using force in Iran] is a slam-dunk.”

We all remember what happened the last time neo-conservatives had a “slam dunk” case for war – we’re still paying the price for the mess in Iraq.

While we oppose Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, bellicose rhetoric and military action actually make the United States less safe. They reinforce Iran’s pro-nuclear regime and put our troops in Iraq at further risk of attack. The staggering economic, humanitarian, political and military consequences of a conflict between the United States and Iran would damage American strategic interests both now and for years to come.

There is clearly time for diplomacy to work.  Experts state that Iran is unlikely to possess the capability to develop a long-range nuclear missile within the next ten to fifteen years.

On Saturday in Berlin, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei urged the international community to continue to engage with Iran diplomatically, saying that “small steps and negotiations” are necessary to achieve results. ElBaredei insisted that threats of force are a “bridge to nowhere.”

Take action now! Send a letter to your local newspaper urging negotiations, not bombs.

Each election cycle, in addition to our own analyses, we compile predictions by other political race experts on the most competitive contests in the country.

Find forecasts for 2010 Senate elections from Stuart Rothenberg’s Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, and the Cook Political Report. (Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has not yet posted information on 2010 races, but will be added to this list as predictions are made.)

Click here for the complete listing of early predictions for the 2010 Senate.

 

Two incumbents (one Senate and one Governor) are in serious trouble in the 2010 Senate contests.

In Florida, the hard right conservatives who recently managed to throw an upstate New York Republican seat to the Democrats by supporting a third party candidate are at it again.  The popular Governor now running for Senate, Charlie Crist (R-FL), is opposed by Club for Growth and other conservative activists who think he is too moderate.  Crist’s Republican opponent, Marco Rubio (R-FL), the former House speaker, has begun closing the gap in the polls although not in fundraising.  Rubio is also winning Republican straw polls.

In Connecticut, incumbent Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) is either running virtually even or behind any of five Republican opponents, including 11 points behind former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT).Ralph Nader, who managed to screw up the Al Gore for President campaign in 2000, is thinking of running for Senate in Connecticut as an independent (beware of any potential candidate who talks of all the people urging him to run).  Dodd’s main hope is that the Republicans destroy each other in a primary.

How many other incumbents will be in trouble next year, or will improved economic conditions and an enacted health care bill create a rising tide for many of these incumbents.,

For eight long months President Obama has been wrestling with the request of his commanding general in Afghanistan for at least 40,000 more American troops to reinforce the 68,000 already there alongside the 50,000 NATO soldiers. Virtually the entire foreign-policy establishment has been tied up in a series of eight long meetings on Afghanistan; papers have been researched, written, and discussed in excruciating detail.

As the nation awaits the president’s decision, it seems clear that the enormous investment of time and study presages much more than a decision on the number of troops. The president must offer a game-changing strategy: either the application of irresistible force for victory within a reasonable time or a prompt exit strategy. The irresistible force might be assembled quickly by transferring U.S. forces now in Iraq to Afghanistan. The exit might be blamed on the corruption, ineffectiveness and drug dealing of the hopeless Karzai government.

Why has it taken Obama so long to decide? We should keep in mind that the Afghan war is not his prime problem. His administration will succeed or fail primarily on the economic situation in the nation, the level of jobs and business activity. Is there a relationship between the economy and Afghanistan? Defense Secretary Robert Gates gave a clue on November 12 as he commented on the president’s many meetings on Afghanistan. Mr. Gates was talking to reporters on his plane en route to a Wisconsin factory that is churning out thousands of armored trucks for use by American troops in Afghanistan. Mr. Gates was in Wisconsin to visit the Oshkosh Corp. which is making 6000 trucks to help protect troops from improvised explosive devices (IED), which account for the vast majority of American and NATO casualties in Afghanistan. “Obviously, if the president makes the decision to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan”, Mr. Gates said, “We would look at this in terms of whether we needed to buy more”.

Is the war in Afghanistan indirectly part of the Obama stimulus plan to increase economic activity and employment? An exit from Afghanistan and the planned withdrawal from Iraq would mean wholesale cancellations of military contracts, expenditures that the Congress supports and welcomes. Such cutbacks would exacerbate the difficult business and employment situation. Will this be a factor in the Obama’s decision? As a student of American history, he knows that FDR finally overcame the Great Depression with an armament program beginning in 1938-39 that stimulated the economy and put millions of workers back on the payroll. Will that be a factor in Obama’s decision about continuing the wars in Southern Asia?

This post originally appeared on The Relentless Liberal on November 14, 2009. Jerome Grossman is Chairman Emeritus of Council for a Livable World.

By: Alex Isenstadt

November 10, 2009 04:53 AM EST

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=DB33EEA1-18FE-70B2-A8328A7DB0C0427D

After struggling for two consecutive cycles on the Senate battlefield, Republicans seem poised to make a comeback in 2010. With 37 seats up for grabs — and Democrats defending 19 of them — the GOP is flexing its muscles in Democratic-leaning states like Delaware, Connecticut and Illinois. Recruiting coups by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas are one big reason Republicans feel a new sense of confidence. Democrats, meanwhile, are taking on an increasingly defensive crouch as the party in power, which must defend President Barack Obama’s ambitious — and expensive — agenda.

Without further ado, here is POLITICO’s list of the 10 best pickup opportunities among next year’s Senate contests.

Delaware

Republicans turned Delaware into their top pickup target when they nabbed Rep. Mike Castle, the state’s nine-term moderate congressman, to run for the open seat. Delaware remains a deeply Democratic state, with Vice President Joe Biden — the former occupant of the seat in question — as the state’s political godfather. But Democrats and Republicans agree that Castle is the only Republican in the state who could make this a real race. Now all eyes are on Biden’s son, Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, who is said to be leaning toward a run.

Connecticut

Republicans would typically have no business contesting a Senate seat in deeply blue Connecticut, but given Chris Dodd’s still-tenuous political standing in his home state, Republicans see a possible pickup. Dodd has seen his approval ratings dip well below 50 percent as he has come under scrutiny for his ties to Countywide Financial. Former Rep. Rob Simmons once seemed to be the obvious GOP contender, but Simmons now faces an increasingly difficult primary against former Ambassador Tom Foley, anti-tax activist Peter Schiff and deep-pocketed former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.

Colorado

The White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are circling the wagons around appointed Sen. Michael Bennet — a clear sign that the Washington Democratic establishment views former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff’s potentially divisive primary challenge as a threat to the party’s hold on the seat. Even with the support, Bennet might now be forced to move to the left on a series of tough votes — starting with health care — that could put him at a disadvantage in a tough general election campaign. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is the likely GOP nominee, but she faces a contested primary.

Nevada

Republicans missed out when Rep. Dean Heller and former Rep. Jon Porter — two potential contenders who could have put a serious scare into Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid — passed on the race. The GOP is left with former state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, a less-than-perfect nominee who is certain to come under a hail of fire from Reid, who has nearly $9 million in his campaign bank account. It’s Reid, more than any other 2010 incumbent, whose fortunes are tied to the national political environment, and his reelection will be viewed as a referendum on the Democratic majority and Obama.

Illinois

While Democrats failed in their efforts to woo state Attorney General Lisa Madigan into the race, Republicans scored a major recruiting coup when they signed up Rep. Mark Kirk, a mammoth fundraiser known for his success in holding a tough suburban Chicago House seat. Both sides agree that Kirk will make the race for a Democratic seat competitive. Democrats, meanwhile, have struggled to find a candidate they are comfortable with — state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has emerged as the front-runner in the Democratic primary field, though his background in banking may provide fodder for opponents.

Pennsylvania

Former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey, once regarded as an unelectable conservative in an increasingly Democratic state, is emerging as a strong contender. Toomey has raised a cool $3 million and has pulled even with or ahead of Sen. Arlen Specter in polls. Specter faces an uncertain path to the Democratic nomination, however, as he and Rep. Joe Sestak are headed for the kind of tough, expensive primary that always makes party higher-ups nervous.

Ohio

With Ohio trending Democratic in recent years, the state has emerged as the top Democratic pickup opportunity in the country. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is the all-but-certain Democratic nominee in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich, though Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner has stubbornly remained in the race despite raising less than $600,000. Former White House Budget Director Rob Portman, poised to run on the GOP side, has already raised more than $6 million for the contest — a hefty sum that has Democrats on edge about Fisher’s less-than-stellar cash figures.

Missouri

The race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond offers Democrats one of their strongest pickup targets, as Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is almost certainly the strongest Democratic recruit of the cycle. Carnahan — the daughter of former Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan — has already taken in more than $3 million for the contest. Rep. Roy Blunt, a former House GOP whip, avoided a tough primary against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, but he still faces an uphill general election battle.

Kentucky

The increasingly competitive GOP primary between Rand Paul, son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and Secretary of State Trey Grayson has created an opening for Democrats to compete in this Republican-friendly state. Paul is tapping into the base of anti-tax, conservative activists his father cultivated during his failed presidential bid to pad his campaign bank account, while national Republicans have lined up behind Grayson. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who gave retiring Sen. Jim Bunning a scare in 2004, are locked in an increasingly bitter primary of their own.

New Hampshire

Though Democrats are rallying around Rep. Paul Hodes in the race for the seat of departing GOP Sen. Judd Gregg, the second-term congressman has yet to establish himself as strong contender. Hodes has just over $1 million in his campaign bank account and came under fire over the summer for avoiding health care town halls. National Republicans, meanwhile, are placing their hopes on Kelly Ayotte, a former state attorney general. While Ayotte has revealed little about her platform, Democrats hope that the prospect of a primary battle with former State Board of Education Chairman Ovide Lamontagne and Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney, among others, could force her to the right.

© 2009 Capitol News Company, LLC