Chris Cilizza is far from being the only expert to predict a larger-than-expected pick up of Democratic seats in November. Out of 21 shifts in the predictions of four expert resources – the Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Larry Sabato’…

Polls today show Barack Obama leading John McCain in the presidential election, but will that lead remain? Will the Democrats have the sweep in the Senate and House of Representatives predicted by some political pundits? Will public disenchantment with incumbents in general instead cause upsets for both parties?

Here’s your chance to make your best guess – and win some money and notoriety while you do it.

Enter our 2008 Elections Contest

This year, we want you to predict who will win the presidential election nationwide, and in five battleground states. We also chose several of the hottest, most-contested, most-watched congressional races across the country.

Rules are below:

*2 winners — 1st place wins $100, 2nd place wins $50, and both receive glorification on the Council for a Livable World website
*Five points for guessing who wins the presidential election
*Two points for each correct pick for which presidential candidate wins in 5 battleground states
*One point for every correct answer in the Senate and House races
*Two tie-breakers
*One entry per person
*Races not decided by November 18 will be discarded from consideration of the contest, including races that affect the tie-breaker questions
*You must be a United States citizen to enter (say our lawyers)
*Staff of Council for a Livable World and its associated organizations may enter but are not eligible to win a prize
Deadline for entering the contest: Monday, November 3, midnight EST
*Send this contest to your friends, colleagues and fellow political pundits (even though we know you probably don’t want the added competition). This year’s races are too interesting and too contested to sit on the sidelines.

William Kristol, the neo-con columnist at the New York Times, has surrendered the campaign of John McCain. “His campaign is totally overmatched by Obama’s…….. McCain is doomed.”

Obama’s lead in the polls is lengthening. He is far ahead on domestic issues although today’s stock market rally will help McCain by modifying the wave of bad financial news. Public concern about foreign and military policy, issues on which McCain is strong, continues to slide.

Look for a shift in the McCain strategy, away from issues of public policy, away from attacks on Obama’s associations, away from Obama’s inexperience.

The McCain focus in the last two weeks of the campaign will be his life story, his ancestors, his military service, his five year imprisonment in Hanoi, his bi-partisan initiatives in Congress, his embodiment of the American Hero and American values, making him the person who “deserves to be President.”

This story, this strategy, may not work but it appears to be all that McCain has left.

Sic transit gloria mundi

Read or listen to the original post at relentlessliberal.com.

With additional Senate contests tightening as Republican support ebbs in the face of the terrible economic situation, another political pro calls the  possibility of Democrats winning 60 seats in the next Senate plausible. Wrote Chris Cillizza in…

A Daily Kos poll out today confirms an earlier poll showing Eric Massa with a solid lead over Rep. Randy Kuhl.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
    Eric Massa (D): 49
    Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42
    (MoE: ±5%)

This is good to see.  Massa came real close to defeating Kuhl in 2006 with little support from outside his district (other than Council for a Livable World – not that we’re bragging).  He did it by working hard and assembling a strong grassroots operation.  It’s nice to see that work paying off this year.

Click here to help Eric Massa close the game ahead.