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September 16, 2008

Why Sarah Palin

For many months, John McCain, along with millions of other Americans, regarded Barack Obama as a phenomenon in the political world, and perhaps beyond. In McCain headquarters, Obama’s name is rarely uttered as he is referred to as “The One”, a mystical title with messianic overtones. He came from nowhere, unannounced and unexpected, clothed in inexperience and a sense of mission.  How long would the Obama phenomenon last?

This was originally published August 31, 2008 on Relentless Liberal by Jerome Grossman.

For many months, John McCain, along with millions of other Americans, regarded Barack Obama as a phenomenon in the political world, and perhaps beyond. In McCain headquarters, Obama’s name is rarely uttered as he is referred to as “The One”, a mystical title with messianic overtones. He came from nowhere, unannounced and unexpected, clothed in inexperience and a sense of mission.

How long would the Obama phenomenon last? Would it survive the fickle temper of the times, the pressures of American politics? For McCain, the Democratic National Convention was an indication that the media’s love affair with Barack would continue, that the usual Republican strategies and tactics were doomed to failure on November 4.

McCain had seen similar phenomena at the dice tables of Las Vegas where occasionally unknown rookie shooters, inexperienced in the nuances and even the odds of the game, pick up the dice and roll out a long succession of sevens and elevens, making sixes and eights in between as the crowd goes wild. McCain had seen the sly techniques used to throw the lucky shooters off their game: loud noises, a drink spilled onto the table, a manufactured argument.

The nomination of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska for vice-president is McCain’s attempt to throw Obama off his game by substituting a competing story line even more improbable than Barack’s. It is an act of political desperation, a “Hail Mary” forward pass thrown in an attempt to stave off inevitable defeat. Nominating Mitt Romney or Tom Ridge as part of a traditional political ticket would not work against “The One”, against the long accumulated guilt feelings of so many Americans, guilt feelings that can now be expressed by voting for this unthreatening assimilated African-American.

McCain’s gamble is another indication of the trivialization of American politics. Serious discussion of issues and problems fades behind the attractiveness of personality. Sarah Palin is a former beauty queen and star athlete, unflappable despite her inexperience, secure in her far right conservative Republican beliefs. She will not be diverted by Jay Leno jokes that describe her as a baked Alaska or The Perils of Palin. (Notice how few jokes are told at midnight about Barack? Are the comedians afraid of eternal wrath?) And if Joe Biden patronizes or interrupts her in their debate in his usual style, he will regret the encounter.

Palin’s nomination competes with Obama’s in exploiting American guilt by offering voters a choice between correcting the underrepresentation of blacks and women. Of course, the election of President Obama will be more significant than the election of vice-president Palin, but the contest does offer a choice of remedies to historic exclusions: do one now, the other later.

Will Palin attract many of the women who voted for Hillary in the primary elections? I doubt it. Most of them are feminist to some degree, feminists who will be repelled by Palin’s ultra conservative positions. Equality for women may be their most important issue, but most of them have a range of liberal beliefs that Palin cannot satisfy.

And this contradiction will be made even more apparent in the campaign as Palin tries to shore up conservative support for McCain, now shaky at best, by telling them of her positions on abortion, guns, death penalty, Iraq war, etc. She cannot satisfy the conservatives and liberals at the same time.

Palin’s inexperience, a heartbeat away from the presidency of a 72 year old man with a medical history, may take Obama’s similar inexperience off the political table. In fact, as Bill Clinton has said repeatedly, every new president enters office unprepared for the challenges of presiding over a nation of 300 million people. Clinton should know. His first two years as president were a disaster marked by failures in health care, gay-lesbian policies in the military, etc. culminating in loss of Democratic control of Congress for the first time in 40 years. John F. Kennedy’s term began similarly with the Bay of Pigs invasion failure, nuclear war crises with the Soviet Union, and ineffectiveness in dealing with Congress. Republicans Ronald Reagan, Bush the First and Bush the Second had similar problems in mastering the presidency.

McCain fears that Obama may be unstoppable in his advance to Pennsylvania Avenue. As differences on issues fade, as personality and celebrity reach new heights of importance, as race prejudice becomes entwined with historic American guilt, the political trend is unmistakably toward Barack. Sarah Palin will not change the result any more than previous vice-president nominees. John McCain’s Hail Mary pass will not prevent the election of “The One”.

Posted in: Blog

September 16, 2008

Latest Polling on 2008 Senate Campaigns

This listing includes mostly media and public polls.  Read more to see the latest results by state.

September 10, 2008

N.B. This listing includes mostly media and public polls; party or candidate polls are generally not used unless other polls are unavailable. Because all polls have a margin of error in their numbers, the polls should be taken as useful indicators at the moment the polling is conducted rather than absolute truth. In some instances, conflicting polls will be provided.

Alaska
49% – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)
46% – Sen. Ted Stevens (R)
5% – Undecided, other
Anchorage Press/KTUUJ-TV/KENI-AM poll conducted August 30 – September 2, 2008 – 500 likely voters

Colorado
47% Rep. Mark Udall (D)
37% – ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R)
16% – Undecided, other
Denver Post poll conducted August 13 – 15, 2008 – 400 likely voters

39% – Rep. Mark Udall (D)
31% – ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R)
30% – Undecided, other
Suffolk University poll conducted August 21-24, 2008 – 450 likely voters

Idaho
41% – Lt. Gov. James Risch (R)
30% – ex-Rep. Larry LaRocco (D)
29% – Undecided, other
Greg Smith & Associates poll conducted August 18 – 22, 2008 – 600 likely voters

Iowa
57% – Sen. Tom Harkin (D)
20% – Christopher Reed (R)
23% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted April 21- 23, 2008 for KCCI-TV – 600 likely voters

Kansas
50% – Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
38% – former Rep. Jim Slattery (D)
12% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted June 2-4, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Kentucky
52% – Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)
40% – Bruce Lunsford (D)
8% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted August 9 – 11, 2008 for WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington and WCPO-TV Cincinnati.- 636 likely voters

Lousiana
46% – Sen. Mary Landrieu (D)
40% – State Treasurer John Kennedy (R)
14% – Undecided
Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted June 26 – 28, 2008 – 600 likely voters

Maine
50% – Sen. Susan Collins (R)
40% – Rep. Tom Allen (D)
9% – Undecided
Critical Insights poll conduted June 1-27, 2008 – 602 registered voters

Michigan
59% – Sen. Carl Levin (D)
27% – state rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
14% – Undecided
Detroit News & 3 tv stations poll conducted August 18-21, 2008 by EPIC-MRA – 600 likely voters

Minnesota
41% – Al Franken (D)
40% – Rep. Norm Coleman (R)
19% – Undecided, other
Minnesota Public Radio News and University of Minnesota poll conducted August 7-17, 2008 – 763 likely voters

Mississippi
45% – Rep. Roger Wicker (R)
44% – ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
14% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted July 21-23, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Montana
65% – Sen. Max Baucus (D)
26% – Mike Lange (R)
9% – Undecided
Mason-Dixon poll conducted May 19-21, 2008 for Lee Newspapers – 625 likely voters

Nebraska
58% – ex-Governor Mike Johanns (R)
31% – Scott Kleeb (D)
11% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted May 19-21, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

New Hampshire
46% – former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
42% – Sen. John Sununu (R)
12% – Undecided
U. of New Hampshire Granite State poll conducted July 11 – 20, 2008 – 475 likely voters

(Note: A Republican poll conducted around the same time by American Research Group showed Shaheen ahead 58% – 36%, but this listing generally does not use partisan polls)

New Jersey
46% – Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D)
35% – former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R)
20% – Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted September 4 – 7, 2008 – 840 likely voters

New Mexico
59% – Rep. Tom Udall (D)
34% – Rep. Steve Pearce (R)
7% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted July 24, 2008 – 700 likely voters

North Carolina
50% – Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)
42% – Kay Hagan (D)
8% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30, 2008 for DailyKos – 600 likely voters

Oklahoma
56% – Sen. Jim Inhofe (R)
34% – Andrew Rice (D)
10% – Undecided, other
Survey USA poll conducted September 5 – 7, 2008 for KFOR-TV – 6520 likely voters

Oregon
49% – Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
37% – Jeff Merkley (D)
14% – Undecided
Survey USA poll conducted August 2 – 4, 2008 for KATU-TV – 629 likely voters

Tennessee
60% – Sen. Lamar Alexander (R)
20% – Mike McWherter (D)
11% – Undecided
Ayres, McHenry & Associates Republican poll conducted October 8-11, 2007 – 600 registered voters

Texas
44% – Sen. John Cornyn (R)
31% – Rick Noriega (D)
25% – Undecided
University of Texas conducted July 18-30, 2008 – 668 registered voters

Virginia
56% – ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D)
35% – ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)
9% – Undecided SurveyUSA poll conducted for several television stations September 5 – 7, 2008 – 717 likely voters

Posted in: Blog

September 16, 2008

Other Expert Predictions: 2008 Senate Races

2008 Senate race ratings for key 2008 races, provided by a range of professional election-watchers and – each category – listed alphabetically by state. Political analysts from each of our four major sources agree that some of these races are long-shot…

Posted in: Blog

September 16, 2008

Council for a Livable World Review of 2008 Senate Elections

Latest information on all the top tier Senate races.

Alaska:  A wide-ranging public corruption inquiry by the Department of Justice and the FBI has led to the late July indictment of Sen. Ted Stevens’ (R) related to a home remodeling project. Stevens’ son, ex-state Senate president Ben Stevens (R), has also been caught up in a wide-ranging corruption scandal. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) is running against Stevens and was already leading in the polls before the indictment. Begich also outraised Stevens in the last fundraising quarter ending June 30, although Stevens retains a cash-on-hand advantage. Stevens easily won an August 26 primary, but Begich is favored to win the seat.

Colorado:   Sen. Wayne Allard (R) is retiring at the end of his term. The race settled early: U.S. Rep Mark Udall (D) vs. ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R). Colorado is trending Democratic, and Udall is a narrow favorite. A number of revelations about Schaffer’s past work have caused him difficulties. Udall has a fundraising advantage, but not an overwhelming one. A recent Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post.com poll surprisingly showed the Republican candidate ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer has pulled into a tie against U.S. Rep. Mark Udall (D). The poll, conducted July 14 – 22, had the two candidates in a 44% – 44% tie. [COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD HAS ENDORSED AND FUNDRAISED FOR MARK UDALL]

To get details on all the top tier Senate races, click here.

Posted in: Blog

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