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December 9, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – UN Experts Inspect Iranian Nuclear Facility

IRAN
UN experts inspect Iran’s Arak nuclear plant
Mohammad Davari, AFP – December 8, 2013
Yesterday, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials began inspecting the Iranian heavy water reactor at Arak. The inspection is the first to take place since Iran and the P5+1 (Russia, China, France, the UK, the US + Germany) came to an interim agreement in Geneva last month. The Arak reactor is a major P5+1 concern due to its ability to produce plutonium, an element that can be used to develop a nuclear weapon.

Obama Says He Can Envision Nuclear Deal With Iran
Michael D. Shear, The New York Times – December 7, 2013
While speaking at a press conference on Saturday, President Obama said that he believes a final and comprehensive diplomatic agreement with Iran regarding the latter’s nuclear program could be reached. The deal would allow Iran to enrich nuclear material to a grade required for power production, but restrict any enrichment beyond that level. To reassure allies, stringent restrictions would be implemented to verify Iranian compliance.

Saudi ex-spy chief says Gulf states must join Iran talks
AFP – December 8, 2013
Former Saudi Arabian intelligence chief Prince Turki Al Faisal has called for the inclusion of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in ongoing Iranian nuclear negotiations. Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., Prince Turki Al Faisal said “Ongoing talks are incomplete and the presence of the GCC states on the (negotiating) table will benefit everyone.”

Cantor, Hoyer Looking at Iran Bill Together
Lauren Fox, U.S. News & World Report – December 6, 2013
Last Friday, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) handed off a draft bill to the No.2 House democrat Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) that outlined details regarding what Congress would like to see included in any future nuclear deal between the US and Iran. If the bill includes new sanctions against Iran, a move many House members have called for in recent weeks, it has the potential to complicate ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran.

DIRTY BOMBS
After Mexican Theft, Critics Question if IAEA Radiological Security Rules Are Enough
Douglas P. Guarino, Global Security Newswire – December 5, 2013
Last week, a truck carrying cobalt-60, a highly radioactive material that can be used to develop a radiological dirty bomb, was stolen in Mexico while en route to Tijuana. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has since called for stricter legal rules on the transport of radioactive materials. A number of nonproliferation advocates claim that this effort alone will not suffice to prevent future incidents involving dirty bombs.

NORTH KOREA
North Korea Confirms Purge of Kim Jong Un’s Uncle
Alistair Gale, Wall Street Journal – December 8, 2013
Yesterday, North Korean officials confirmed the purge of Jang Song Thaek from all official positions. Mr Thaek is the uncle of North Korea’s current leader Kim Jong Un. Among North Korean experts and commentators, Mr. Thaek was considered the second most powerful official within the North Korean regime.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
U.S. Bomber Planes at $81 Billion Seen 47% More Than Plan
Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg – December 6, 2013
The U.S. Air Force currently plans to replace its aging fleet of nuclear-capable long-range bomber aircraft with a new long-range bomber designated LRS-B. Initial Air Force estimates list the total procurement costs for 100 LRS-Bs at $55 billion. New estimates from three defense analysts estimate that these costs may be nearer to $81 billion; a 47% increase over the initial Air Force estimate.

INDIA
India expands nuclear weapons site: US think tank
AFP – December 5, 2013
According to the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), India appears to be finishing work on a second gas centrifuge facility at its Rare Minerals Plant. This new facility could potentially be used to enrich uranium to a grade that would allow it to be used in the development of a nuclear weapon.

Posted in: Blog

December 5, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – House Members Plan to Bash Iran Deal

IRAN
House bill would bash Iran deal
Molly K. Hooper, The Hill — December 4, 2013
A group of Republican congressmen that disapproves of the recent deal reached between the P5+1 and Iran are considering various legislative options that would essentially nullify the terms of the agreement. One member of this group, Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) said, “The overwhelming sentiment [among House Republicans is] this was an agreement that was foolish, dangerous, and that we need to do something and push forward.”

Iran’s Nuclear Deal Faces Big Test
Tom Gjelten, NPR — December 4, 2013
This weekend, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors will visit Iran to inspect the country’s heavy water reactor near Arak. The inspection has been long overdue and will provide a first test of Iran’s promises to allow international inspections of its nuclear facilities as outlined in the recent deal reached between the P5+1 and Iran a few weeks ago.

Kerry lobbies Netanyahu to give interim nuclear deal with Iran some breathing room
Anne Gearan and William Booth, The Washington Post —  December 5, 2013
Secretary of State John F. Kerry has met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an effort to lobby Tel Aviv to support the recent P5+1 deal. Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly criticized the deal since it was struck last month in Geneva.

Rep. Hunter: US Should Use Tactical Nukes on Iran if Strikes Become Necessary
John T. Bennett, DefenseNews — December 4, 2013
House Armed Services Committee member Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif) remarked during a C-SPAN interview that the US should consider launching a tactical nuclear weapon against Iran if a war with the country appeared likely. The launch would be designed to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. Arms control experts have expressed their deep concerns with such a proposal.

RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
Truck With Radioactive Load Is Recovered in Mexico
Randal C. Archibold and Rick Gladstone, The New York Times — December 4, 2013
Three days ago, a truck carrying a radioactive material known as “Cobalt 60“ was stolen near Tijuana, Mexico. The material is used for medical purposes, but can also be used as the radiological source of a ‘dirty bomb.‘ The theft set off a two day manhunt, which ended yesterday when the truck and its contents were found near a small town on the outskirts of Mexico City.

SYRIA
U.N. Official Details Plans for Removing Syria’s Chemical Arms
Rick Gladstone, The New York Times — December 4, 2013
Sigrid Kaag, the United Nations official in charge of coordinating the disposal of Syria’s chemical weapon stockpile, stated yesterday that the most dangerous materials would be sealed by Syrian nationals before being sent to the Syrian port of Latakia. This transportation must be complete before the December 31st deadline set by the U.N. security council almost three months ago.

How the U.S. Will Dispose of Syria’s Chemical Weapons
Sara Sorcher, National Journal — December 3, 2013
The U.S. is planning on destroying Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile itself after Albania and Norway turned down offers from Washington to destroy the stockpile. The process will be dangerous and expensive. The arsenal will have to be transported to a Mediterranean port through contested areas of Syria before being loaded on a U.S. ship for neutralization.

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
Benin and Burkina Faso holding two workshops on the Biological and Toxin Weapons Prohibition with funding from the European Union.
Mareeg.com — December 1, 2013
National workshops on biological and toxin weapons will be taking place in the African nations of Burkina Faso and Benin over the next week. Funded by the European Union, the workshops will attempt to educate and assist officials within these countries on the implementation of the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin weapons (BTWC).

Posted in: Blog

December 4, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Congress Wants Role in Final Iran Deal

IRAN
White House prepared to allow limited Iran nuclear enrichment
Jim Acosta, CNN – December 3, 2013
The White House has announced that it is willing to allow Iran to have a “limited enrichment program” if it abides by international agreements. This comes after the Iranian government indicated that it was “prepared to accept rigorous monitoring and limits on level, scope, capacity, and stockpiles.” The statement said that enrichment would be allowed only to meet Iran’s energy needs and did not constitute as recognition of a right to enrich uranium.

Eric Cantor Wants Congress to Define Final Iran Deal
Tim Alberta, Defense One – December 3, 2013
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is attempting to give Congress a greater role in formulating a final deal with Iran. Cantor is gathering support for a bill that will lay out what can and cannot be in the final deal. He argued that critics in Congress could spend time attacking the interim deal or they could try to shape what a final deal would look like.

Security Insiders Poll: World Struck ‘Good Deal’ With Iran
Sara Sorcher, Defense One – December 3, 2013
In the face of criticism from Congress and Israel, the interim deal with Iran has gained more support from national security insiders who have hailed it as a “good deal.” One expert commented that the deal “is better than expected and rolls back key aspects of the Iranian progress toward bomb-grade highly enriched uranium.” However, another insider did warn that “if [the interim deal] becomes the final deal, it’s disastrous.”

SYRIA
Syria fighting complicates effort to ship out chemical weapons
Dominic Evans, Reuters – December 2, 2013
A highway in Qara, Syria which was going to serve as a transportation route for Syria’s chemical weapons has become the site of combat between the Syrian military and rebel forces. Fighting began near the road about two weeks ago after the Syrian military took the town of Qara. The head of the OPCW’s mission in Syria, Sigrid Kaag, said that efforts to destroy chemical weapons have never before taken place under such dangerous conditions.

Russia’s Putin, Saudi Prince Bandar discuss Syria, Iran: Kremlin
Alexei Anishchuk, Alistair Lyon, Reuters – December 3, 2013
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chief of Saudi Intelligence Prince Bandar bin Sultan met recently to discuss the ongoing war in Syria and Iran’s nuclear program. The two discussed their opinions of the conflict in Syria and the upcoming Syrian peace conference to be held on January 22.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS
Pentagon: Chemical Weapons in Panama Won’t Be Sent to U.S. for Disposal
Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire – December 3, 2013
The Department of Defense currently has no plans to remove aging U.S. chemical weapons from Panama. The weapons date back to a U.S. Army chemical testing program that ended in 1947. This statement from the Defense Department was in contrast to a statement made by Panamanian Foreign Minister Fernando Núñez Fábrega last month where he announced that the U.S. had agreed to remove the remaining weapons.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Nuclear-Arms Security Concerns Persist After Y-12 Break-in
Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire – December 3, 2013
The Department of Energy’s Inspector General said last week that security concerns continue to remain a “significant management challenge” at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee, more than a year after activists broke into the facility. The government has reportedly spent $100 million responding to the 2012 incident, yet, according to the inspector general, a number of policy issues remain.

MISSILE DEFENSE
Russia: Iran Deal Ends Need for Missile Defense
Associated Press – December 4, 2013
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has argued that the interim deal with Iran means a European missile defense shield is no longer necessary. In the past, the U.S. has said that the missile defense system was not designed to protect against Russian missiles; instead, its goal was to defend Europe against Iran. In light of a deal with Iran, Russia is now seizing its opportunity to question the U.S. desire to create a missile shield.

Posted in: Blog

December 3, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Obama and Senators Faceoff over Iran Sanctions

IRAN
How Congress Could Steamroll Iran Sanctions Past Obama
John Hudson, Foreign Policy – December 2, 2013
Senate Democrats and Republicans are ignoring warnings from the White House and are proceeding with a bill that will hit Iran with additional sanctions. The new round of sanctions would go into effect after a six month period if no promising final deal is made with Iran. Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) said that the sanctions serve as a message to Iran that there are consequences for not striking a deal.

Limitations of nuclear deal temper Iranian’s enthusiasm
Stephen Kalin and Parisa Hafezi, Reuters – December 3, 2013
Some of the initial enthusiasm felt in Iran has dissipated as the population learns of the complexity and gradual implementation of any sanctions relief. Many Iranians were hoping that a deal would bring relief from restrictions on banking, trade, and international travel. Shipping and energy sanctions have also forced many factories to close, and the owners of these factories who were looking forward to getting back to work doubt whether relief will ever come.

Pollster finds support for Iran deal
Alexander Burns, Politico – December 3, 2013
A recent survey suggests that Americans are generally supportive of the U.S.-Iran deal when they were given a clinically worded description of the deal by the Hart Research firm. Of those who knew little about the deal, 34% supported it, 22% opposed it, and 41% had no opinion. After they were given a description of the deal, the number in support rose to 63% of the 800 voters surveyed.

Bipartisan blowback to Iran deal
Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post – December 2, 2013
The Obama administration is facing harsh criticism from both Republicans and Democrats over the interim deal signed with Iran. Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), in his appearance on Face the Nation, questioned why the deal does not result in a single enrichment centrifuge being dismantled. Others are questioning why the objective for negotiations began as ending Iranian enrichment but resulted in recognizing Iran’s right to enrich.

SYRIA
U.S. Delivers Gear to Destroy Syrian Chemical Arms at Sea
Global Security Newswire – December 2, 2013
The U.S. has proposed a direct role in the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. Systems used to destroy chemical weapons are being installed on board the Ready Reserve Force ship MV Cape Ray in preparation for this direct role. The destruction effort would focus on neutralizing 500 tons of nerve agents that are too dangerous to be eliminated by other nations. The cost would range from $47 million to $61 million.

RUSSIA
Putin Eyes ‘High-Precision’ Arms as Partial Nuclear-Weapons Alternative
Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire – December 3, 2013
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that advanced conventional weapons systems may “equal” nuclear weapons in their ability to serve as a deterrent. Putin said that long range, high precision hypersonic weapon systems provide a viable alternative to nuclear weapons. These weapon systems have also been considered by the United States because they offer an alternative to hitting key, time sensitive targets that do not warrant the use of nuclear weapons.

NORTH KOREA
Japan-South Korea Discord Seen Harming Efforts to Defend Against N. Korea
Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire – December 2, 2013
The U.S. is trying to increase cooperation between Japan and South Korea amid growing tensions between the two East Asian countries. The U.S. wants Japan and South Korea to focus on their common threat in the region, North Korea. Much of the tension in the relationship stems from growing mistrust of Japan’s military ambitions.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
For 15 Years, All That Stood Between U.S. and Nuclear War Were Eight Zeros
Global Security Newswire – December 2, 2013
Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, the launch code capable of starting nuclear war was 00000000. This mechanism was supposedly used to ensure that missiles could be launched as quickly as possible and to ensure that missiles could still be launched in the event of communications outages. Bruce Blair, co-founder of the Global Zero initiative argued in 1977 that as few as four terrorists could take control of nuclear missile bunkers – the launch codes were changed immediately afterward.

Posted in: Blog

December 2, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Iran Nuclear Chief Says Iran Will Not Abandon Arak Reactor

IRAN
Iran, powers to meet next week on carrying out nuclear deal
Isabel Cole and Fredrik Dahl, Reuters – December 1, 2013
Representatives from Iran and the P5+1 countries will meet next week to discuss the interim agreement signed on November 24. The meeting is expected to be held in Geneva or Vienna and will detail the implementation mechanisms of the deal. Iran’s envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency said that implementation would begin in early January.

As senators work on Iran sanctions bill, White House lobbies lawmakers not to act
Karen DeYoung and Joby Warrick, Washington Post – December 1, 2013
A bipartisan group of senators are using their Thanksgiving recess to put together a new Iran sanctions bill that they hope will make it to the Senate floor before Christmas. The Obama Administration has expressed its concern that additional sanctions could cause the interim deal to fall apart. Treasury Department Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, David Cohen, commented that sanctions were put in place to make Iran negotiate and continued by saying that now that Iran has begun making concessions it does not make sense to continue implementing new sanctions.

Iran ‘will never abandon Arak heavy water reactor
AFP – December 1, 2013
Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s nuclear chief, has said that Iran will not abandon its development of the Arak heavy water reactor. He said that Iran has a right to enrich uranium and also has a right to build the heavy water reactor, and he added that any attempt to stop the building of the reactor was an infringement on Iran’s rights. The reactor is of concern because it produces plutonium as a by-product, which could be used as a different method for creating a nuclear weapon.

DEFENSE SPENDING
Poland Eyes Up to $8.4 Billion in Air and Missile Defense Costs
Global Security Newswire – November 27, 2013
Poland is looking to acquire up to $8.4 billion in short and medium range missiles by 2022. This acquisition is in addition to the 2018 target for Poland to begin hosting U.S. missile interceptors. The Polish government says that the new systems will defend against medium range airborne threats and will integrate into the NATO missile shield.

Navy: Shipyard cuts may delay sub deployments
Audrey McAvoy, Associated Press – November 26, 2013
Rear Admiral Phillip Sawyer has expressed concern that continuing budget cuts will harm the Navy’s ability to deploy submarines in 2015 and beyond. Hiring freezes at shipyards have prevented the replacement of retiring workers which has had the effect of increasing maintenance times by as much as two months. Rear Admiral Sawyer also expressed concerns that cuts will contribute to a drop in performance standards which could be a significant problem with regard to nuclear reactor safety and ballistic missile submarine safety.

NORTH KOREA
US Hints At More Sanctions On N. Korea After Iranian Deal
AFP – November 25, 2013
Glyn Davies, U.S. Special Envoy for North Korea Policy, has hinted at increasing sanctions on North Korea following their success at bringing Iran to the negotiating table. He added that it is “completely unacceptable” for North Korea to attempt to engage in diplomatic talks while it is expanding its nuclear weapons program.

RUSSIA
U.S. Knew Russia Violated Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
Josh Rogin, The Daily Beast – November 26, 2013
Just over a year ago, acting Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs Madelyn Creedon briefed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Russia’s violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Then-Senator John Kerry expressed outrage over this violation and argued that the U.S. cannot enter into treaties with countries that won’t live up to their part of the bargain. The Obama Administration and Kerry are now being criticized for not publicly acknowledging the violation or confronting Russia over it.

NUCLEAR MATERIALS
Uranium seized in South Africa ‘not from the continent’: agency
AFP – November 25, 2013
South African officials have intercepted one kilogram of uranium that was being sold along with ecstasy tablets by two men in their early twenties. The South African Nuclear Energy Corporation tested the material and concluded that the uranium was not enriched and most likely originated from a different continent.

Posted in: Blog

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