IRAN
Eased sanctions only a small help to Iran’s economy: US
AFP – November 25, 2013
A senior US Treasury official told reporters on Monday that the partial lifting of sanctions in the Geneva accord agreed between the P5+1 (Russia, China, France, the UK, the US and Germany) and Iran last weekend will only have a small benefit for the Iranian economy. Speaking at a briefing, the official said “In relation to the depth of the economic distress that Iran is currently facing, this package is really quite modest and economically insignificant”.

Israel’s Iran Dilemma
Roger Cohen, The New York Times – November 25, 2013
The Geneva accord has been harshly criticized by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because it is seen as a threat to Israel’s strategic position in the wider Middle East. Under the status quo, its support from the US has ensured its status as the premier power in the region. If US-Iranian relations improve as a result of the Geneva deal, this status quo could change and, as a result, force Israel to rethink its role in the region.

Senators writing new sanctions in case Iran cheats
Bradley Klapper, Associated Press – November 26, 2013
A bipartisan group of senators is preparing a bill that would reinstate the full set of sanctions lifted by the Geneva accord in addition to new sanctions if Iran is found to be violating any of the specific agreements made in the accord. Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who will co-sponsor the bill, told reporters “I do not believe we should further reduce our sanctions, nor abstain from preparations to impose new sanctions”.

A battered Israel resumes campaign against Iran
Josef Federman, Associated Press – November 26, 2013
Israeli officials are regrouping after failing to stop the interim Geneva accord over Iran’s nuclear program reached last weekend. Many are now calling for tougher measures to be included in the final deal that will replace the interim deal in six months time. Among these measures include the total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program and a ban on Iranian uranium enrichment.

Wary of war, Israeli public gives Iran deal a chance
Jeffrey Heller, Reuters – November 25
Many Israelis have voiced their doubts about the Geneva accord reached last weekend. However, many of those questioned also said that the interim deal was preferable to the alternative of military action. “I am leaning more to the side that it’s worth the effort – the six months – to see if there’s a chance there can be a diplomatic solution,” responded one man who was asked for his opinion.

How Does North Korea View the Iran Nuclear Deal?
Jeyup S. Kwaak, The Wall Street Journal – November 25, 2013
Some experts have raised concerns that the nuclear deal reached between the P5+1 and Iran last weekend may send a signal to North Korea that it may continue with its nuclear weapons development program. Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University, said North Korea will likely conclude from the deal that it, like Iran, will be able to continue to enrich uranium in the face of US demands.

The Real Nuclear Option
Micah Zenko, Foreign Policy — November 25, 2013
Israel may consider attacking Iranian nuclear facilities with a low-yield nuclear weapon if it believes that Iran is violating the measures outlined in the recent Geneva accord. In the past, Israel conducted air strikes against other Middle East adversaries that were attempting to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Because Iran’s nuclear facilities are so deep underground, meaning that they cannot be destroyed by conventional weapons, Israel may launch a nuclear attack in an effort to stop Iran from developing a fully operational nuclear weapon.

UNITED KINGDOM
Trident costs rocket by over 600%
Rob Edwards, The Herald — November 24, 2013
November 24, 2013
New figures from the UK ministry of defense have revealed that UK spending on a joint US-UK life extension program for the nuclear armed D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile system will have increased by 600% by FY2015 in comparison to FY2010 figures. The program, led by Lockheed Martin, was first agreed upon in 2006. It will extend the lifespan of the D-5 missile by 14 years to 2042.

IRAN
EU’s Ashton given credit for keeping tense Iran talks on an even keel
John Zarocostas, McClatchy DC – November 24, 2013
Much of the credit for the successful outcome of the P5+1 (Russia, China, France, the UK, the US and Germany) talks over the weekend should go to EU High Representative Lady Catherine Ashton according to a number of senior diplomats who were present at the talks. Her personality and positioning played a significant role in ironing out differences and finding common ground between the different powers.

Analysis: Iran deal leaves Israel few options
Josef Federman, Associated Press – November 24, 2013
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has little choice but to accept the interim deal made between the P5+1 and Iran over the weekend, which he has described as deeply flawed. According to Israeli analyst Yoel Guzansky, Netanyahu’s options – including a military strike against Iran – remain limited despite tough rhetoric in recent weeks; “How can Israel, after the entire international community sat with Iran, shook hands with Iran and signed an agreement, operate independently?”

Iran’s Nuclear Triumph
The Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal – November 24, 2013
The deal between the P5+1 and Iran “takes Iran one giant step closer to becoming a de facto nuclear power”. Iran has gotten sanctions relief, but does not have to give up its uranium centrifuges, its control of its present uranium stockpile, its right to enrich in the interim, or its plutonium reactor at Arak. Because of these holes, the deal merely delays Iran’s ability to “break out” and develop a nuclear weapon by a mere couple of weeks.

An Iran deal worth trying — risks and all
The Editorial Board, The Washington Post – November 24, 2013
The Geneva accord between the P5+1 and Iran may be risky, however it is worthy as a first-phase step towards coming to a comprehensive agreement in six months time. The deal will cap expansion of the country’s nuclear infrastructure and delay the time it would take for Iran to potentially develop a nuclear weapon. All in all, the deal is far more preferable to the alternative option; a military strike.

Lawmakers Continue Push for New Iran Sanctions
Siobhan Hughes – November 24, 2013
Despite the weekend P5+1 deal, a group of hardliners within the US senate are refusing to back down on the threat of a new round of sanctions against Iran. A leading figure within this group, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), said in a statement that “disproportionality of this agreement makes it more likely that Democrats and Republicans will join together and pass additional sanctions when we return in December”.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Markey Seeks Cost Options for Modernizing Ballistic-Missile Submarines
 Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire – November 22, 2013
Senator Edward Markey (D-Mass.) has proposed an amendment to the FY 2014 Defense Authorization Bill that would require the Navy to provide the US Congress with cost projections for alternatives for modernizing the country’s current ballistic-missile submarine fleet. The amendment states that “the update shall specify how the cost updates account for differences in survivability, targeting responsiveness and flexibility”.

Could a Missed Deadline Spell Doom for the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent?
Dianne Barnes, Global Security Newswire – November 22 , 2013
Department of Energy analysts have warned that the US may run out of tritium, a crucial ingredient used to maintain nuclear warheads, by 2015 if it misses a deadline for analyzing the effects of a potential production increase. The nuclear-weapons office within the department has already missed a mid-2013 deadline for the analysis.

SYRIA
Syria may have given up chemical weapons, but what to do next is proving tricky
Michael Birnbaum, The Washington Post – November 23
Destroying Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile is proving trickier than many expected when the international community agreed to destroy the stockpile months ago. Although Syria no longer has the capabilities to produce new chemical weapons, the organization responsible for overseeing the destruction of the stockpile, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), has highlighted the problem of transporting the existing stockpile to a secure location where it can be destroyed.

CHINA
Annual U.S. Congress Report on China is Curiously Light on Nuclear Arms Info
Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire – November 21, 2013
A report for Congress by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission is surprisingly short on detail about China’s growing nuclear arsenal compared to prior years. The 465 page document did not mention vital information regarding updates to China’s ICBM program which includes the newly installed DF-31 missile. In prior years, an entire section was devoted to status updates from the Department of Defense and intelligence communities.

China’s Nuclear Submarines Are Less Than Advertised
Joshua Philipp, Epoch Times – November 20, 2013
China’s newest ballistic missile submarines lack accuracy, stealth and survivability according to U.S. Navy Admiral Jonathan Greenert. The newest class of operational submarines, the Jin-class, is reportedly louder than some Soviet-era submarines from 30 years ago. The limited range of China’s submarine launched ballistic missiles also means that in order to even successfully target Hawaii, the easy-to-detect submarine would have to enter the Sea of Japan or the Philippine Sea.

IRAN
Kerry: Iran Leader’s Anti-Israel Remarks Were ‘Inflammatory’
Michael Crittenden, Wall Street Journal – November 21, 2013
Secretary of State John Kerry has responded to comments made earlier this week by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying that Israel is a “rabid dog” of the region. Kerry called the comment “inflammatory” and said that it could hurt ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Kerry went onto say that the U.S. stands with Israel and that no one’s interests are served through name calling.

Iran, six powers struggle to over snags in nuclear talks
Louis Charbonneau and Parisa Hafezi, Reuters – November 22, 2013
Iran and the members of the P5+1 are reportedly struggling to reach a deal due to several points of contention. Negotiators from the United States and Europe have begun playing down the prospects of finding success in this round of talks. Iran has raised some objection to what it sees as excessive demands, and progress has been hindered by disagreement over Iran’s “right” to enrich uranium.

On Verge of a nuclear deal, Iran appears to harden its stance
Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times – November 21, 2013
Just as it looked like a deal might be reached on Thursday, Iran began pushing for sanctions relief as part of the interim deal instead of it coming as part of the final deal. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi began demanding relief from oil and banking sanctions as well as recognition of its entitlement to enrich uranium. Offering sanctions relief as part of an interim deal without verification that Iran was living up to its part of the bargain was seen as a major, unacceptable concession by the U.S. and Europe.

Corker Rolls Out Sanctions Legislation
Jordain Carney, National Journal – November 21, 2013
Sen. Bob Corker introduced legislation that requires Iran to comply with both UN Security Council Regulations and any deal arranged by negotiators in Geneva before President Obama has authority to lift sanctions. The legislation would give the Obama administration 60 days to reach an interim agreement with Iran and 180 days to reach a final agreement. He also added that sanctions lifted would be reinstated if Iran failed to comply with any parts of a deal.

MISSILE DEFENSE
Turkey-China Antimissile Deal May Happen Soon: Sources
Global Security Newswire – November 22, 2013
Turkey may sign a deal with China to purchase missile defense technology much sooner than initially expected. The deal, which is opposed by the U.S. and NATO, would provide Turkey with the Chinese made FD-2000 missile defense system. The U.S. and NATO have been trying to discourage Turkey from purchasing the system because they fear it may be incompatible with other missile-defense technology and because it could pose a cyber-security threat by allowing China access to other computer systems.

FY 2014 Defense Authorization Bill, S. 1197 in the Senate

While the nuclear option was on the Senate floor yesterday, the term did not refer to nuclear weapons amendments to the defense bill. Instead, there was a controversial decision by Democrats to change the rules to require 51 votes to overcome a filibuster on nominations (but not legislation) rather than 60 votes.

The resulting ill-feelings, and the reluctance of Democrats to agree to the Republican demand for bringing up 25 GOP and 25 Democratic amendments, led to a failure to invoke cloture to end the debate on the defense bill, 51 to 44, with 60 votes needed.

The two parties also failed to agree to approve a managers’ package of amendments cleared by both sides.

A motion to recess for Thanksgiving barely passed 51-42.

The Senate is now out of session until December 9, when the defense bill will again be on the Senate floor. But the way ahead is as unpredictable as ever. Even so, many more amendments were submitted yesterday.

Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Hanukkah – although a Senate motion to endorse this sentiment would have been objected to.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Nuke Troubles Run Deep; Key Officers “Burned Out”
The Associated Press – November 20, 2013
An unpublished study by the RAND Corporation has revealed serious behavioral issues among personnel within the Air Force’s nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force. Reported cases of burnout, domestic violence and sexual assaults were, on average, far higher in the ICBM force than in the overall Air Force.

IRAN
WRAPUP 7-U.S. says ‘very hard’ to clinch deal as Iran nuclear talks resume
Parisa Hafezi, Louis Charbonneau and Justyna Pawlak, Reuters – November 20, 2013
The P5+1 (Russia, China, France, the UK, the US and Germany) and Iran resumed negotiations yesterday on a first-phase agreement to curb Iran’s controversial nuclear program. US officials have said that it would be “very hard” to clinch a breakthrough deal this week in light of Iranian officials publicly claiming “red lines” in the upcoming negations.

AP sources: Nuclear deal would give Iran sanctions relief of $6 billion to $10 billion
Associated Press – November 20, 2013
The Obama administration estimates that Iran would receive somewhere between $6 billion and $10 billion in sanctions relief if the country agrees to limit its nuclear activities in line with US demands. The figures are far lower than those claimed by senior Israeli government officials, congressmen and pro-Israel policy experts.

Iran: Difficult Differences at Nuke Talks
George Jahn and John Heilprin, Associated Press – November 20, 2013
The momentum that had characterized the previous round of P5+1 talks has slowed down in the current round of talks in Geneva according to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Speaking to the Associated Press, Araghchi said “What we are trying now is to rebuild confidence that we lost in the previous round of negotiations.”

Israel, Gulf in ‘strange alliance’ against Iran
Brian Murphy, Associated Press – November 20, 2013
Israel and a number of Gulf Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, have found themselves in a ‘strange alliance’ in their common opposition to US diplomatic engagement with Iran in recent weeks. Despite the traditional mutual animosity between these countries, their common adversary in Iran has led them to realize the old adage of “an enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

NORTH KOREA
US: No Dialogue If NKorea Keeps Nukes Running
Matthew Pennington, Associated Press – November 21, 2013
National Security Adviser Susan Rice has said that the US will only be willing to reenter negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program if Pyongyang takes concrete steps to indicate its willingness to denuclearize. She also warned that the US may issue harsher sanctions against the country if it acts provocatively.

‘Strategic Patience’ with North Korea
Lt. General Robert Gard, The Diplomat – November 21, 2013
The current US policy of isolating and sanctioning North Korea will not force the East Asian country to dismantle its nuclear weapon program. Instead, this policy will give the country an incentive to sell weapons and nuclear technology on the black market in order to earn hard currency. The US would vastly improve its chances of achieving a nuclear weapons-free Korean peninsula if it entered into negotiations with the North without the unrealistic preconditions that it has demanded in the past.

CHINA
Inside the Ring: U.S. funds China’s nuclear security
Bill Gertz, The Washington Times – November 20, 2013
The Obama administration is funding a joint nuclear security center in Beijing that is designed to strengthen nuclear non-proliferation measures. Some conservative commentators have criticized the center in light of claims that US equipment, training and other security know-how will be used by the Chinese at their nuclear weapons production facilities.