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November 13, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Senators Divided on New Iran Sanctions

IRAN
Senate split on new Iran sanctions
Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan, Politico – November 12, 2013
Senators on both sides of the aisle remain divided on the issue of whether a new round of sanctions should be issued against Iran. The Obama administration is attempting to convince the senate that this proposed new round should be delayed in order to give diplomatic negotiations in Geneva a chance.

What About US?
Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times – October 12, 2013
The US should remember to articulate and assert its own national interests in its current policy towards Iran. Right now, diplomatic engagement with the Islamic Republic is in the US national interest and US policy makers should articulate this interest in the face of Israeli and Sunni Gulf Arab opposition.

Stephens: Axis of Fantasy vs. Axis of Reality
Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal – November 11, 2013
The US currently finds itself as the leader of the ‘axis of fantasy’ insofar as it does not realize the reality of the situation regarding Iran’s controversial nuclear program. The administration is so desperate to make a deal with the Islamic Republic that it fails to see the sinister intentions behind the hollow Iranian promises.

After Near Miss on Iran, Kerry Says Diplomacy Is Still the Right Path
Mark Landler, The New York Times – November 11, 2013
Secretary of State John Kerry has defended US diplomatic efforts towards Iran’s nuclear program against a growing number of critics following the P5+1 talks over the weekend. Commenting on why the talks failed to produce a deal, Secretary Kerry stated that “There was unity, but Iran couldn’t take it.”

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Ending Nuclear Overkill
Benjamin H. Friedman and Christopher A. Preble, The New York Times – November 13, 2013
The US does not require its current triad strategy of nuclear weapon delivery systems based on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and long range strike bomber aircraft. This strategy is a relic of the Cold War. A monad or dyad strategy would save money in the long term while maintaining a viable US nuclear deterrent.

Analysts: Pakistan Unlikely To Transfer Nuclear Weapons, Know-how to Saudis
Usman Ansari, Defense One – November 12, 2013
A number of nuclear weapons analysts have raised their doubts about a BBC report published last week that claimed Saudi Arabia could acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan if Iran produces its own nuclear weapon. For an array of economic, political and strategic reasons, both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are unlikely to have made such an agreement.

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
Classified program speeds satellite data transmission
Ray Locker, USA Today – November 12, 2013
Intelligence officials charged with the tracking of nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological materials that could be used to develop weapons have developed a new high speed satellite modem. This modem allows these analysts to track these materials quicker and more comprehensively.

Posted in: Blog

November 12, 2013

What We’re Reading Now — Iranian Foreign Minister: West to Blame for Lack of Deal

IRAN
Iranian foreign minister blames West for snag in nuclear talks
Marcus George and Jon Hemming, Reuters – November 12, 2013
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif cites splits between the P5+1 countries as the reason for why no agreement was made between the P5+1 and Iran on the weekend. The Foreign Minister’s comments come after US Secretary of State John Kerry blamed Iran for the failure to reach an agreement.

Senate will wait before moving on Iran sanctions: aides
Patricia Zengerle and Matt Spetalnick, Reuters – November 11, 2013
The senators planning to enact new sanctions against Iran have said that they will only make a decision on the matter after Secretary of State John Kerry briefs them on Wednesday. The group expects Secretary Kerry to explain why the P5+1 talks with Iran held over the weekend failed to produce an agreement.

Iran Nuclear Talks: Unfinished, but Alive
The Editorial Board, The New York Times – November 11, 2013
The lack of agreement following the P5+1 talks over the weekend was disappointing. However, everyone needs to realize that diplomacy takes time and, in this particular case, that there is no alternative policy that has the potential to produce the ‘best deal possible’.

Russia denies Iran to blame for nuclear talks failure
AFP – November 12, 2013
Russia has denied claims that Iran was to blame for the lack of an agreement following the P5+1 talks between Western powers and Iran over the weekend. Instead, disunity among the P5+1 was to blame. The latter claim goes directly against Secretary Kerry’s claim of P5+1 unity and a lack of cooperation on the part of Iran.

MIDDLE EAST
Arab League Backs Steps Toward Banning Mideast WMDs
Elaine M. Grossman
Global Security Newswire – November 11, 2013
The Arab League has agreed to support an Egyptian plan outlining how the League’s member states could achieve a decades old ambition of a regional WMD-free zone. It remains unclear as to whether all of the members states had agreed to every single proposal within the Egyptian plan.

NORTH KOREA
South Korean Diplomat to Travel to China for Talks on North Korea
Global Security Newswire  – November 11, 2013
Cho Tae-Young, South Korea’s chief nuclear negotiator, will travel to China in the next few days to discuss the current standstill over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program with his Chinese counterpart. The trip comes a week after Mr. Tae-Young visited Washington for talks between the US and Japan concerning the three countries’ unified stance towards the North Korean nuclear issue.

CHINA
US Report: 1st Sub-launched Nuke Missile Among China’s Recent Strides
Wendell Minnick, Defense News – November 11, 2013
The congressional US-China Economic Review Commission claims that China’s JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile will reach initial operational capability (IOC) later this year. The missile, which has a range of 4,000 nautical miles, will be China’s first credible submarine-based nuclear deterrent capable of striking the US mainland.

CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
Industry asked for technologies to detect and counter chemical and biological weapons
John Keller, Military and Aerospace Electronics – November 12, 2013
Researchers from the US Department of Defense are asking industry experts to nominate modern technologies capable of predicting, detecting and countering an array of different chemical and biological weapons.

Posted in: Blog

November 8, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Iran Negotiations Appear to Be Inching Closer toward A Deal

IRAN
Iran Nuclear Deal Closer as Kerry Set to Arrive in Geneva
Jonathan Tirone, Bloomberg – November 8, 2013
Secretary of State John Kerry is expected in Geneva today to take part in talks with other P5+1 officials and Iranian negotiators. A framework for a deal has reportedly been agreed upon, and now top diplomatic officials will try to flesh out the details of an actual deal. White House spokesman, Jay Carney, said that Iran has been offered limited sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable concessions on its nuclear program.

Israel PM ‘utterly rejects’ emerging Iran nuclear deal as Kerry heads to Geneva talks
Associated Press – November 8, 2013
Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has responded to the news that a deal has been offered to Iran, saying it is a “bad deal” and promising that Israel will defend itself in any way necessary. Netanyahu has in the past threatened to attack Iran unilaterally and has also argued for greater pressure to be placed upon the Iranian regime. Prior to his arrival in Geneva, Secretary of State John Kerry made a trip to Tel Aviv to speak with Netanyahu.

Japan foreign minister heads for Iran as talks bring hope
AFP– November 8, 2013
Japan’s Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida, is flying from Tokyo to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials in hopes of leveraging ties with Iran to solidify the possible deal that is being proposed during the P5+1 talks. Kishida is expected to press Iran that it “should respond to mounting international expectations of the Rouhani administration.” He is also expected to remind Iran that the negotiation window is only open for a limited period of time and that Iran should take advantage of this opportunity.

NORTH KOREA
Beijing Seeking a Break in the Impasse over North Korea
Jane Perlez, New York Times – November 7, 2013
China’s envoy for Korean Peninsula Affairs, Wu Dawei, is in Pyongyang today trying pressure the North Korean leadership to resume the stalled six-party talks. Last week Wu was in Washington trying to push the Obama administration back to the negotiation table. Recently, China has taken a more active role in applying pressure on North Korea for its provocative actions, and the push to resume talks seems to suggest that the trend of increasing pressure is continuing.

U.S., South Korea, Japan Agree to Prioritize Denuclearization of North
Global Security Newswire – November 7, 2013
Officials from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan met on Wednesday to discuss North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The three countries agreed that their priority should be the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The talks included discussion of resuming the suspended, and previously failed, aid-for-denuclearization option; however, no further information was available regarding the details of the meeting.

SYRIA
Army lab in Edgewood tied to Nobel-winning chemical weapons disarmament group
Scott Dance, Baltimore Sun – November 6, 2013
Labs like the Aberdeen Proving Ground have and will likely continue to play a key role in the disarmament of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. The U.S. Army’s Forensic Analytical Center may have been the lab responsible for confirming the August chemical weapons attack in Syria. The experts at labs like this are now using their expertise to assist the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to identify materials and assess the best way to destroy those materials.

Exclusive: U.S., Russia see Syrian chemical disarmament overrunning
Dominic Evans, Reuters – November 8, 2013
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons must deal with a significant scheduling challenge. The U.S. and Russia want all of Syria’s chemical agents to be removed from the country, except for one precursor used to make Sarin, by December 31. The chemical agents are then scheduled to be destroyed out of country by the middle of 2014. The chemical precursor for Sarin – Isopropanol – must be destroyed on site by March 1. The U.S. and Russia also rejected a Syrian request to convert their weapons facilities to be used for peaceful purposes.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Navy Concerned about $500 Million Shortfall for Ballistic-Missile Subs
Emelie Rutherford, Global Security Newswire– November 7, 2013
Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Jonathan Greenert expressed his concerns regarding an imminent $500 million shortfall for the Ohio Replacement Project to members of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. Adm. Greenert also pointed out that the Navy is struggling to pay for $1 billion in deferred costs on contracts that are due immediately and ship-maintenance. These additional costs are not covered by the Congressional continuing resolution which keeps spending at 2013 levels.

Posted in: Blog

November 7, 2013

What We’re Reading Now — American and Iranian Negotiators: Nuclear Deal Taking Shape

IRAN
First-step Deal on Curbing Iran’s Nuclear Program Takes Shape
Laurence Norman and Jay Soloman, Wall Street Journal — November 7, 2013
A confidence-building deal curbing Iran’s nuclear program is within reach according to American and Iranian officials currently negotiating in Geneva. The deal would have Iran pause its nuclear program for a period of six months in return for limited sanctions relief.

Sen. Bob Corker Moves to Stop Obama from Lifting Iran Sanctions
Josh Rogin, The Daily Beat — November 6, 2013
Senator Bob Corker is considering the introduction of a bill that would block the Obama administration from relieving existing Iranian sanctions. Mr. Corker is a senior member on the the Foreign Relations Committee.

SYRIA
Search of Syria’s disclosed chemical weapons sites nearly done
CNN Staff, CNN International — November 7, 2013
Weapons inspectors charged with destroying Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile have verified a further weapons site within the country. The site, located in the contested city of Aleppo, was one of two sites that the inspectors could not verify in previous weeks due to ongoing fighting in the area between government and rebel forces.

DEFENSE
Is Pentagon paying for study it can get for free?
Ray Locker, USA TODAY — November 6, 2013
The Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment (ONA) is paying the conservative National Institute for Public Policy $184,000 to conduct an analysis of US nuclear deterrence strategy. This decision was made despite the fact that the Institute had already published such an analysis in the summer.

NORTH KOREA
Inside the Ring: North Korean missiles deemed a serious threat to U.S.
Bill Gertz, The Washington Times — November 7, 2013
Navy Admiral Samuel Locklear has expressed his concern regarding new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) currently being developed in North Korea. Adm. Locklear told a group of foreign reporters “I am bound to take that serious, both for not only the peninsula, but also the region, as well as my own homeland.”

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Nuclear Arsenal: US To Turn Old Bombs Into All-Purpose Weapons
Markus Becker and Otfried Nassauer, Der Spiegel — November 6, 2013
US plans to modernize an array of aging nuclear weapons have been criticized as violating President Obama’s pledge that the US would not develop any new nuclear weapons. The ongoing modernization programs seek to redesign certain parts of these older weapons rather than simply refurbish the weapons themselves. This, according to some interest groups, could lead some to view the modernization program as an effort to develop new weapon types.

US to spend billions ‘modernizing’ nuclear arsenal
Mathieu Rabechault, Agence France-Presse — November 6, 2013
The Obama administration is planning on spending billions of dollars on a modernization program for the B61 nuclear gravity bomb. Some members of Congress have raised concerns regarding the growing cost of the program. Originally slated to cost $4 to $8 billion, new projections estimate the cost at nearer to $10-$12 billion.

SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi nuclear weapons ‘on order’ from Pakistan
Mark Urban, BBC News — November 7, 2013
An unnamed senior NATO decision maker has told the BBC that Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects. A number of Pakistani-made weapons have already been developed and are “now sitting ready for delivery” to Saudi Arabia.

Posted in: Blog

November 6, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Defense Secretary Hagel Discusses Changes to Military in Time of Austerity

BUDGET
Hagel’s Plan for the Military in the Post-War Era
Kevin Baron, Defense One – November 5, 2013
In an hour long speech, Defense Secretary Hagel laid out what he believes are the most important security challenges facing the US now that the war in Iraq has ended and the war in Afghanistan is coming to a close. During his speech, Hagel placed emphasis on global leadership and the responsible use of force. He also discussed six areas of focus for the budget reduction efforts going forward as a result of the Defense Department’s own budget cuts and those of sequestration.

Disruption of Regular Appropriations Threatens DoD Projects
Megan Scully, Roll Call – November 5, 2013
Congressional inability to come to a long term budget agreement is threatening to delay major Defense Department projects due to uncertainty as a result of Congressional reliance on continuing resolutions. One such project that may be disrupted by budgetary uncertainty is the Ohio Replacement Project. The current continuing resolution limits spending to 2013 levels for the rest of FY 2014; this comes at a critical time when the ballistic missile submarine is requiring additional funding for research and development.

IRAN
Iran FM says nuclear deal possible this week
Al Jazeera– November 5, 2013
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said that he is optimistic that the P5+1 talks scheduled for November 7 and 8 could yield a possible deal on Iran’s nuclear program. He hinted that the Iranian negotiation team was ready to come to talks with a proposal, but he expressed some doubt over whether the US would come to the talks ready to negotiate. Two days prior to this statement, Iran’s Supreme Leader gave his support for negotiators but also questioned whether or not results would come from the talks.

Iran invites U.N. nuclear chief, hopes for deal
Yeganeh Torbati and Fredrik Dahl, Reuters – November 5, 2013
Iran has invited the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit Iran on November 11. As of right now, Director General Yukiya Amano is considering the invitation but has not confirmed if he will travel to Iran. The invitation is seen by some as progress on stalled discussions focusing on inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities.

SYRIA
US checking accuracy of Syrian arms document
AFP – November 6, 2013
US officials are combing through the 700-page declaration of Syria’s chemical weapons to verify if the entire stockpile was actually reported by the Syrian government. US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, has stated that previous dealings with the Syrian government have made the US very skeptical of the regime. The US previously raised questions about the number of chemical weapons sites reported by the Assad regime.

Exclusive: Syrian chemical weapons mission funded only until end of month
Anthony Deutsch, Reuters – November 5, 2013
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has announced that it will run out of funding for the oversight of destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile at the end of the month. The organization has so far raised about $13 million for its mission in Syria; however, it will need a significant infusion of funds to begin destroying Syria’s 1,300 ton stockpile. It is not yet clear where the funding will come from to complete the rest of the operation.

NORTH KOREA
North Korea Seen to Be Improving New ICBM Mockups
Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire – November 5, 2013
North Korea has unveiled new mockups of ICBM technology at its annual military display in Pyongyang. Last year the mockups were criticized by experts as being poorly put together; however, this year, significantly fewer design discrepancies were apparent. It is unclear if these advances in mockup design have translated into advances in North Korea’s actual missile development.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
U.S., international partners remove last weapons-grade uranium from Hungary
Oak Ridge Today– November 4, 2013
The US Department of Energy has successfully removed the last remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium from Hungary. The amount of highly enriched uranium that was removed was capable of being used in nine nuclear weapons. The materials were originally used by Russia to fuel a research reactor in Budapest which was converted from using highly enriched uranium to using low enriched uranium.

Posted in: Blog

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