NORTH KOREA
Reasons to talk to North Korea
Stephen Bosworth and Robert L., The New York Times – October 27, 2013
Although there are many potential pitfalls of negotiating with Pyongyang, the United States should enter talks with the North to ensure its denuclearization. Concessions should be “simultaneous” and “verified” and talks on a peace treaty to replace the current armistice should be initiated.

MISSILE DEFENSE
U.S., Germany, Italy Agree to Cooperate on MEADS Development
Global Security Newswire – October 25, 2013
The U.S., Germany and Italy have written a letter of intent outlining their continued commitment to collaborate on development of the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS). The system, designed to be used defensively in a battlefield situation, has been financed by all three countries since its inception. It is unclear whether U.S. financial collaboration will continue in light of strong opposition within both chambers of Congress.

IRAN
Kerry, Lew to brief U.S. senators on Iran nuclear talks
Patricia Zengerle and Timothy Gardner, Reuters – October 25, 2013
The Obama administration is attempting to convince the Senate Banking Committee to delay its plans to pass new sanctions against Iran in order to give its diplomatic efforts with the country a chance. Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will hold a ‘secret’ briefing  on the current status of ongoing talks with Iran for the committee on Thursday.

U.S., Russia quietly cooperate on Iran
Paul Richter and Sergei L. Loiko, Los Angeles Times – October 26, 2013
Despite their occasionally frosty relationship, the U.S. and Russia are cooperating in efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Russia’s interest in cooperation stems largely from its fear of a military strike against Iran, which would destabilize its southern border and potentially harm its oil and gas industries.

Iran, powers to have expert-level nuclear talks in Vienna October 30-31
Justyna Pawlak, Reuters – October 25, 2013
Experts from Iran and the P5+1 countries (Russia, China, France, the UK, the US and Germany) will meet in Vienna to negotiate on Iran’s controversial nuclear program on October 30. The meeting could provide foundations for real progress going into the next round of Geneva talks a week later.

RUSSIA
Russia Missile Tests Raise Questions
Global Security Newswire – 25 October, 2013
The Washington Free Beacon recently asserted that Russia’s October 10 test of its SS-25 intercontinental ballistic missile violated the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. The State department responded to this assertion by claiming that the test was “consistent” with both the New START treaty and the INF treaty.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Boeing, Lockheed team up again to bid for new bomber
Dominic Gates, The Seattle Times – October 28, 2013
Boeing and Lockheed Martin will prepare a joint bid for a next-generation long-range nuclear-capable bomber for the Air Force. The Air Force is offering a $55 billion contract for 80 to 100 aircraft that will replace the Air Force’s existing B-2 Stealth Bomber fleet.

Scientists in Charge of US Nuclear Weapons Are Sad
Dana Liebelson – October 25, 2013
An internal government report has revealed that workers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California are depressed about their jobs. This depression is attributed to the “increased stress and reduced moral” among technical employees.

NORTH KOREA
Increase in Activity Reported at North Korean Nuclear Test Site
Choe Sang-Hun, New York Times – October 24, 2013
The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies has reported that commercial satellite imagery shows activity at North Korea’s nuclear test site. The images seem to indicate that new tunnels entrances are being dug at the facility. Initial analysis of the images does not seem to suggest at test is imminent; however, such activity could be in preparation for a test at a later time.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
US Concerns over Turkey missile proposal
Al Jazeera America – October 24, 2013
Turkey has reportedly entered into talks with a Chinese firm over a proposal to build a missile-defense system. The U.S. has raised concerns over the plan because it may impact U.S. plans for a missile and air defense system in Eastern Europe and also because the Chinese firm is currently under U.S. sanctions. This development continues the trend of increasingly independent actions taken by Turkey under Prime Minister Erdogan.

Soviets conducted nuclear blasts at oilfield to be tapped with China
Vladimir Soldatkin – October 25, 2013
Russia confirmed Friday that the Srednebotuobinskoye oilfield was the site of at least seven nuclear detonations in the 1970s and 1980s. The field, located in Eastern Siberia is scheduled to be tapped by Russia and China. Concerns have been raised by environmental groups that the oil in the area may be contaminated by radiation; however, the Russian government and the state oil firm Rosneft rejected these claims, stating that the location was safe.

Cost Concerns Could Prompt New Look at Warhead Modernization Plan
Douglas P. Guarino, Global Security Newswire – October 25, 2013
Budgetary constraints may force the Obama administration to scrap plans to modernize certain nuclear warheads. A plan proposed by the Department of Energy earlier this year is now receiving serious examination by the administration in a effort to reduce costs. The plan proposes the creation of a new type of interoperable warhead which can be mounted on both land and sea based missiles. The plan would reportedly result in a reduction in the total number of warheads needed to operate the land and sea-based legs of the nuclear triad but at a higher fiscal cost.

SYRIA
Norway Says It Can’t Destroy Syria’s Chemical Weapons
Scott Neuman, NPR – October 25, 2013
The Norwegian government has announced that Norway will not be able to destroy portions of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry has commented that the country would not be able to meet the required deadlines due to a lack of capacities and regulatory requirements. The foreign minister said that the country lacks a port which could receive the chemical weapons and does not have the infrastructure in place to treat waste by-products created by the destruction process.

Denmark Offers to Help Dismantle Syrian Chemical Arsenal
Global Security Newswire – October 24, 2013
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has told reporters that Denmark has reportedly offered to assist in the destruction of some of Syria’s chemical weapons. The Secretary General said that the Danish government was “ready to provide their full support, whatever it may be.” It is not yet clear how much of a role Denmark would have in destroying portions of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile.  

IRAN
Top Iranian Official to Meet with UN Nuke Chief
George Jahn, Associated Press – October 24, 2013
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, is planning to meet one on one with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency hours before the Monday talks between IAEA and Iranian negotiators. This news came as a surprise when it was announced on Thursday that the deputy foreign minister would be heading to Vienna. It is unclear why the meeting is going to be held right before the scheduled talks; however, it has been noted that Araghchi played a key role in last week’s P5+1 talks.

Lawmaker Says Iran Has Halted Enrichment
Thomas Erdbrink, New York Times – October 23, 2013
The deputy head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran’s parliament, Hossein Naqavi Hosseini, has remarked that Iran has allegedly stopped enriching uranium up to twenty percent. This news comes after the committee visited several nuclear facilities and was briefed by negotiator Abbas Araghchi. Naqavi Hosseini claims that Iran now has all of the twenty percent enriched uranium that it needs to operate its test reactor in Tehran, which is supposed to be used to create medical isotopes. The report has not been confirmed by any other officials in the Iranian government, however.

There is a tendency in Democratic circles to rail against Texas Senator Ted Cruz and his bitter-enders in the Tea Party set.

But come on people. Ted Cruz is the Democrats’ best bud.

As a friend keeps reminding me, how come you are so lucky with your enemies?

Green Eggs and Ham Cruz is a hero to the right-wing Tea Party faction, which followed him over the cliff in shuttering the government. Most of his friends stood with him in refusing to accept the final deal reopening the government and avoiding a default on the U.S. debt.

The result: Cruz and his acolytes should be lionized by Democrats. Perhaps we should set up a secret fund to pay for his travels to the 50 states. We need more photos of Ted Cruz & candidate X; it’s great campaign fodder.

I mean, look at what Ted & Co. have accomplished. He split the Republican Party and brought the party’s favorability to  record lows. He and his House friends led the party to abject defeat in their goal to defund Obamacare. In the process, they overshadowed weeks of major problems with the health care reform rollout. They have made compromise a dirty word, alienating independents across the country – and some Republicans too.

Ted Cruz appeared in Virginia for ultra-conservative candidate for Governor, Ken Cuccinelli (R), but even  Cuccinelli avoided the obligatory photo of the two politicians together that would have been an instant attack ad.

It is this same brand of extremist Republicans that:
==Nominated Christine O’Donnell for Senate in Delaware, handing a victory to Sen. Chris Coons (D);
==Nominated Ken Buck in Colorado, giving a boost to Sen. Michael Bennett (D).
==Nominated Sharon Angle in Nevada, helping return Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) to the Senate;
==Nominated Todd Akin in Missouri, moving Sen. Claire McCasill (D) from underdog to top dog;
==Defeated Sen. Dick Lugar in Indiana, opening the way for Joe Donnelly’s (D) upset.

We should encourage Cruz and friends to nominate more candidates with strong principles — but few political smarts.

While not all of these Tea Party challenges will materialize or end up resulting in Democratic wins, a number of Republican incumbents up for election in 2014 are being challenged from the right: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), Senators Thad Cochran (MS), Lamar Alexander (TN), Lindsey Graham (SC), Michael Enzi (WY) and Pat Roberts (KS).

Meanwhile, extreme right candidates are competing for the Republican nominations in Georgia, South Dakota and Alaska.

Enzi’s race in Wyoming has a double whammy: a Tea Party opponent by the name of Cheney who just happens to be related to the former Vice President.

Admittedly, for Democrats to take advantage of Republican primary upsets, they will have to offer candidates who have a shot at emerging as winning candidates in the right circumstances.

A few months ago, the political punditry suggested that the Republicans might lose a few seats in the House of Representatives but retain control, and had a shot a recapturing the Senate as well.

While it is much too early to make predictions — except by those who get paid to predict — the odds have shifted in the other direction.

When Karl Rove and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce start decrying the little Frankensteins they have helped create, you know there are problems — for them, not Democrats.

So back where we started. Who is the biggest asset to the Democratic Party these days? The President? The Big Dog? Hillary? The Veep?

Nope. It’s Ted Cruz. All Hail.

I recently read a fascinating book describing Japan’s decision to surrender at the end of World War II. The book, “Japan’s Longest Day,” was published 20 years after the end of the war and written by 14 Japanese historians, members of The Pacific War Research Society, who spent years researching the history of Japan’s surrender.

The book focuses on August 14-15 as the longest day when the Japanese government — with great difficulty and amidst deep controversy — came to a decision, but also describes the two weeks leading up to that point.    

Japan faced this choice after the Allies issued the Potsdam Declaration on July 26, 1945 reaffirming the demand for unconditional surrender. Rejection, said the Allies, could lead to “prompt and utter destruction.”

Japan ignored the ultimatum.

Japan’s day of decision also followed closely on the heels of the dropping of the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, and the Soviet invasion of Manchuria, also on August 9.

This book was not written by historians from outside of Japan looking to justify or criticize the American use of atomic bombs. Rather, the analysis was first published in Japanese in 1965 to understand how the decision to surrender was made. The English language version was produced by Kodansha International three years later.

The book convincingly refutes a number of commonly made arguments about the end of World War II: that Japan was set to surrender even before the dropping of the atomic bombs, that American leaders knew about this prospective capitulation, and that President Harry Truman ignored this information, choosing instead to explode the bombs as a show of strength to the world and to intimidate the Soviet Union.

The final decision on whether to accept allied terms came down to a Supreme War Council known as the Big Six. Contrary to accounts of Japanese leaders on the verge of surrender, the Big Six remained split down the middle about whether to capitulate despite devastating attacks on Japan by both conventional and atomic bombs, the defeats of Japanese forces across Asia, the Soviet Union’s decision to intervene on the side of the allies and an impending Allied invasion of the Japanese mainland.

Prime Minister Baron Kantaro Suzuki, Minister of Foreign Affairs Shigenori Togo and Minister of the Navy Admiral Mitsumasa Yonai favored surrender, while Minister of War General Korechika Anami, Chief of the Army Staff General Yoshijiro Umezu, Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Soemu Toyoda proposed to continue waging war.

The full Cabinet was also split.

The first official reaction to the demand for surrender came from Prime Minister Suzuki on July 28: the Japanese government rejects surrender and will continue prosecuting the war until victory.

Earlier, Japanese officials had hoped to avoid unconditional surrender, seeking better terms from the Soviet Union’s “good offices” (still officially a Japanese ally)  — without knowing that Stalin had agreed months before to join the war against Japan within two or three months of Germany’s surrender.

The Supreme War Council continued to dither even after the first atomic bomb devastated Hiroshima and the second bomb Nagasaki, and with Manchuria for all practical purposes in Soviet hands. The Army Chief of Staff argued that Japan had still not lost the war and that Japanese troops in the homeland were capable of holding back or even repulsing an Allied invasion.

The Japanese governmental tradition was to rule with unanimity: longtime practice dictated that no decision should be presented for approval to the Emperor, the Voice of the Crane, without a unanimous cabinet. To present the supreme leader with a divided cabinet was unthinkable. Yet in the midst of this crisis, the government was paralyzed by an intractable difference of opinion.

With the leadership unable to agree, in an action unprecedented in modern Japanese history, the divided Supreme Council met with the Emperor late on August 9. The Army Chief of Staff insisted that the Japanese armed forces remained more than a match for the enemy, while surrender would dishonor the Japanese who had died in the war.

The Emperor broke the tie, and agreed with those who favored surrender: “I give my sanction to the proposal to accept the Allied Proclamation.”

But despite the Emperor’s decision, the inconclusiveness continued. The Supreme Council and the Cabinet remained split on whether to accept the Allied terms of surrender.

Younger officers denounced the government for its decision. They promised to continue the war, and to assassinate leaders who stood in their way. Some of the officers even made plans to stage a coup.

The Emperor was forced to reiterate his decision to accept Allied terms, which he decided to do late on August 14. “If we continue that way, Japan will be altogether destroyed.”

Even then, surrender was not assured. Many younger officers believed that the Emperor was being misled and were determined to “protect” him by removing the “traitors” in government.

The Emperor prepared a statement that he would record for a radio broadcast to the Japanese people – a first for a public that had never heard him speak publicly. But even that did not settle the issue for the younger coterie that was determined that Japan should continue fighting.

A regiment of the First Imperial Guards Division seized the Emperor’s residence to isolate him from the rest of the country and government. A search party was launched to find and destroy the Emperor’s recorded statement before it could be broadcast to the country.

After a number of tense hours, the coup was turned back, the recording retrieved from its hiding place and the Emperor’s voice was heard on the radio for the first time: “To our good and loyal subjects . . .”

Thus Japan’s surrender finally became official, but up to the very end, it was far from a sure thing.

NORTH KOREA
Russia, China Consider Options for Restarting Nuclear Talks with North Korea
Global Security Newswire – October 23, 2013
Russian and Chinese leaders have reaffirmed a desire to resume six party talks with North Korea. Both countries also discussed their hopes for a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The last round of six-party talks took place in December 2008; attempts have been made to schedule new rounds of talks, but these efforts have been hampered by provocations by North Korea and expulsion of international inspectors in spring 2009.

SYRIA
Syria Chemical-Equipment Destruction Proceeds amid Peace-Talks Friction
Global Security Newswire – October 22, 2013
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has announced that it has overseen the destruction of equipment at 14 facilities in Syria and has audited a total of 17 facilities. Eight of these sites have been audited since last Wednesday. A visit to one chemical weapons facility had to be canceled last week due to security risks. This progress report comes as diplomats are trying to organize peace talks between the Syrian government and rebel forces.

IRAN
U.S. needs to get real over Iran nuclear talks
Kelsey Davenport, CNN – October 21, 2013
Davenport argues that in order to produce a deal that will prevent a nuclear-armed Iran the US must get on the same page with regard to what it wants from Iran. Elected representatives must allow diplomats a chance to do their jobs in negotiating a deal with Iran. The U.S. should not accept a bad deal, but at the same leaders must be realistic about the possible outcomes of negotiations – continuing to push for zero enrichment, she argues, is not a realistic outcome

U.S., Israel differ over how to resolve Iran nuclear issue
Arshad Mohammed – October 23, 2013
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State John Kerry met Wednesday to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but the conversation quickly changed to a discussion of Iran. Netanyahu reaffirmed his belief that Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons capability and argued that Iran should not be allowed to enrich uranium. He also said that Iran’s nuclear program was the foremost security threat of the region.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
AP Exclusive: Nuclear missile officers were twice caught leaving blast door open while napping
Associated Press – October 22, 2013
Air Force officers responsible for the safe keeping of nuclear launch keys have been caught leaving the blast door to their command post open while they slept on two separate occasions in the past year. The blast doors are intended to prevent unauthorized entry by intruders or terrorists and are supposed to be sealed if the officers are in ‘rest status.’ The two officers received administrative punishments earlier this year.

The U.S.-Vietnam Nuclear Deal
Victor Gilinsky & Henry Sokolski, National Review – October 22, 2013
The authors argue that the recently agreed upon U.S.-Vietnam Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement should be rejected by Congress. The reasoning is that the agreement does not contain limitations to the production of nuclear fuel for Vietnam – a point that Iran will most likely bring up in future negotiations. It also limits the demands that the U.S. can place upon South Korea in its upcoming civil nuclear cooperation agreement. The creation of a deal without nonproliferation controls risks setting a dangerous precedent for further agreements moving forward.

OTHER NEWS
Obama official Jofi Joseph fired over insulting tweets
BBC News – October 23, 2013
A White House official and member of the National Security Council’s nuclear non-proliferation team has been fired for posting insulting tweets. Jofi Joseph tweeted under the twitter name @NatSecWonk and targeted senior White House officials, members of Congress, former-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and countless others in Washington over a two year period.

UN nuclear agency says malware infected some computers
Reuters – October 22, 2013
The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that malicious software has compromised the agency’s computers over the past few months. The agency said that no sensitive data on the network had been compromised, but it did not give any indication of the origin of the attack. The computers were located in publicly accessible areas of the agency’s Vienna International Center; some of the data from USB drives used on these computers is believed to have been compromised.