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October 17, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – US Congress Could Undermine Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts With Iran

IRAN
Senators Seek More Iran Sanctions After Nuke Talks
Bradley Klapper, Associated Press – October 17, 2013
Despite the upbeat note with which the P5+1 talks ended this week in Geneva, a group of bipartisan Senators have called for tougher economic sanctions against Iran. The group has argued that sanctions can only begin to be lifted after Iran has ended all uranium enrichment activity.

Iran Nuclear Talks End on Upbeat Note; More in Nov
George Jahn and John Heilprin, Associated Press – October 16, 2013
Talks between Iran and the P5+1 (France, Russia, China, the US, the UK and Germany) ended yesterday in Geneva with an announcement that follow-up talks would take place in November. Many officials from all parties spoke of significant progress during the talks with regard to reducing hostility and distrust between Iran and the P5+1.

A Look at Main Issues in Iran’s Nuclear Program
Brian Murphy, Associated Press – October 16, 2013
Any significant progress in nuclear talks with Iran must deal with the scope of Iran’s uranium enrichment labs and the stockpile of nuclear material that it has produced in the last few years. A deal on these two issues will not be easy. Iran has made it clear that it will only consider certain limitations on its enrichment program, which in some cases do not meet current US demands.

Examining the Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Rick Gladstone, The New York Times – October 16, 2013
The Iranian nuclear program is continuing to advance despite the damaging effects of international economic sanctions in recent years. Based on early reports from Geneva, it does not look as if any significant breakthrough has been made with regard to limiting this program. Some Iranian officials have said that some agreement on limiting the program could be made if the international economic sanctions currently in place are lifted.

RUSSIA
Inside the Ring: Russia to test new missile
Bill Gertz, The Washington Times – October 16, 2013
Russia is planning on launching a new missile, the RS-26, in the next couple of weeks. This new missile boasts a range of advanced technology that is designed to defeat US and European missile defense systems. Some US officials have raised concerns regarding whether or not the new missile violates the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty between the US and Russia.

Why Russia Keeps Moving The Football On European Missile Defense: Politics
Joan Johnson-Freese and Ralph Savelsberg, Breaking Defense – October 17 2013
Russia remains concerned about the US and European missile defense system based in Europe called the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). The Russian Foreign Ministry recently argued that the system is a threat to Russia’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force. However, the EPAA, due to technological limitations, is less of a threat than Russia argues.

NORTH KOREA
In Bid to Restart Talks, N. Korea Offers to Halt Nuke Tests, but Not Rocket Launches
Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire – October 16, 2013
North Korean officials have recently offered to cease nuclear and missile tests if the US agrees to resume aid-for-denuclearization negotiations. The officials made it clear that long-range rocket tests would not cease if such an agreement were to be made. US officials responded that such offers must be backed up with meaningful actions by Pyongyang.

NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
Submarines Alone Are Not Enough Nuclear Deterrent
Robert Spalding, Defense One – October 16, 2013
A recent article by two scholars at the CATO Institute called for the scrapping of land-based missiles and long-range bombers as nuclear delivery systems in favor of a submarine-only delivery system. This policy recommendation fails to meet the standard that is required for an effective nuclear deterrent.

Posted in: Blog

October 16, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Experts Expect More Details of Iranian Proposal as Talks Enter Second Day

IRAN
Iran presents nuclear proposals at talks
Al Jazeera – October 16, 2013
The P5+1 talks on Iran’s disputed enrichment program have entered their second day in Geneva. Many experts expect the P5+1 countries (the US, China, Russia, France, the UK and Germany) to press Iran for further details regarding its vague PowerPoint proposal outlined yesterday.

We cannot verify and must not trust Iran’s promises on nuclear weapons
John Bolton, The Guardian – October 15 2013
The US and its allies can neither trust nor verify Iranian promises not to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Iran has broken previous promises regarding its enrichment program and the prospects of implementing a successful verification mechanism are slim. Only a military strike against Iran’s enrichment complex can successfully thwart its development of a nuclear weapon.

The Talks with Iran: 3 Voices Whose Advice We Should Ignore
Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy – October 15, 2013
If the Obama administration wants a successful outcome at the P5+1 talks this week, it should ignore three key voices that are currently recommending unrealistic demands or ill-advised negotiating strategies. These voices include the government of Israel, a group of bipartisan senators and a number of lobbying groups advocating coercive measures against Iran.

Sherman’s March
Yochi Dreazen, Foreign Policy – October 14, 2013
Wendy Sherman, the US’s relatively unknown chief nuclear negotiator, is leading the American delegation at the P5+1 talks this week. She faces the difficult task of bringing Iran to a deal to limit its enrichment program and agree to a concrete verification mechanism. Her path to this position has been an interesting and unique one when compared to many of her peers.

NUCLEAR POWER
Uneven Enforcement Suspected at Nuclear Plants
Jeff Donn, Associated Press – October 15, 2013
A yet to be released report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) details a number of safety violations at US nuclear power plants over the last ten years. These safety violations varied dramatically across different regions, which, according to the GAO, suggests that some nuclear regulators are enforcing rules and guidelines more aggressively than others.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
A real nuclear deterrent: US, Russia may team up to use weapons against asteroids
Douglas Birch, The Center for Public Integrity – October 16, 2013
The US and Russia agreed last month to collaborate on issues related to the deployment of nuclear weapons against large asteroids threatening the Earth. Some experts are concerned with this development and cite the dangers of using high yield nuclear weapons to divert or destroy such asteroids.

ASIA
China defends its plans to build nuclear reactors in Pakistan
PTI, The Economic Times – October 16, 2013
China recently agreed to build two 1000 MW nuclear reactors in Karachi, Pakistan. Both the US and India have raised their opposition to the agreement on the grounds that it violates norms set by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). China denies this and has said that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will supervise both nuclear reactors.

SYRIA
Syrian Rebels Urged to Let Inspectors See Arms Sites
Alan Cowell and Anne Barnard, The New York Times – October 14, 2013
The international community intensified pressure on Syrian rebels to allow UN weapons inspectors to access chemical weapons sites inside rebel controlled territories. A number of areas previously controlled by the government have fallen into rebel hands, which has made the process of dismantling Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile more challenging.

Posted in: Blog

October 15, 2013

What We’re Reading Now — Talks with Iran Underway — Breakthrough Likely?

IRAN
Iran says makes proposal aimed at breakthrough in nuclear standoff
Justyna Pawlak and Yeganeh Torbati, Reuters – October 15 2013
Iran has presented “logical” proposals at the P5+1 talks in Geneva for a deal on its uranium enrichment program. Details of the proposal are not yet available, however the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, has said that the other powers “welcomed” Tehran’s proposals.

US Congress calls for hard line on Iran sanctions
Patricia Zengerle, Reuters – October 14, 2013
A group of six Democratic and four Republican senators have sent a letter to President Obama urging him to stand firm on current sanctions against Iran. These sanctions should only begin to be lifted once Tehran has taken significant steps towards slowing its nuclear program. A credible military threat should also remain an option before any such steps have been taken.

Don’t expect miracles in Iran
Ali Vaez, CNN – October 14, 2013
To expect a quick breakthrough in Geneva this week would be naïve. The issue of Iran’s nuclear program has become more complex since Iran first began its enrichment program over 10 years ago. Negotiators should concentrate on achieving realistic progress in the form of an agreement on an endgame.

Senators to Obama: No uranium enrichment in Iran
Bradley Kipper, Associated Press – October 14, 2013
Leading US Senators from both sides of the aisle have demanded an end to all uranium enrichment within Iranian borders. The demand could prove to be at odds with the Obama administration, which has suggested in recent weeks that it may agree to a deal allowing for restricted uranium enrichment within Iran.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Oak Ridge labor leaders, activists press for action to avoid Y-12 furloughs
Frank Munger, Knox News – October 14, 2013
Thousands of government workers at the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee are scheduled to be furloughed this week as a result of the ongoing government shutdown. Labor leaders and political activists are joining together and calling for a resolution to the ongoing budget crisis.

To Save the Submarines, Eliminate ICBMs and Bombers
Christopher Preble and Matt Fay, Defense One – October 14, 2013
The Navy should cut two legs of the US nuclear triad (intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombers) in order to fund the new SSBN(x) submarine program. A single nuclear delivery system, based on the new submarine fleet, would save money in the long term and maintain a powerful US nuclear deterrent.

US nuclear force faces a cascade of missteps
Robert Burns, Associated Press – October 12, 2013
The US nuclear force has faced a number of missteps in recent weeks. The Air Force fired the head of its nuclear missiles on Friday, while the Navy fired the second-in-command at US strategic command two days earlier. These high profile cases have followed a number of firings at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota in May and a failed safety inspection at an intercontinental ballistic missile base in Montana in August.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS
To Ousted Boss, Arms Watchdog Was Seen as an Obstacle in Iraq
Marlise Simons, The New York Times – October 13, 2013
A year before the invasion of Iraq, John Bolton, then US undersecretary of state, forced the director general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, José Bustani, to resign. Mr. Bustani claims that the Bush administration did not want any chemical weapons inspections in Iraq for fear that they would undermine its rationale for an invasion.

Posted in: Blog

October 11, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – OPCW Wins Nobel Peace Prize for Work in Syria

SYRIA
Syria chemical weapons monitors win Nobel Peace Prize
BBC News – October 11, 2013
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its ongoing efforts to oversee the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. The announcement comes just days after a press conference held by the OPCW detailing the progress of the disarmament process thus far. Currently a small group of inspectors are on the ground in Syria to inspect the first chemical weapons facilities ahead of a second team arriving next week.

Air raids and clashes near Syrian chemical weapons site
Dominic Evans, Reuters – October 11, 2013
In the past week, the OPCW has visited three chemical weapons facilities in Syrian government controlled areas. Today, however, highlighted the challenges facing weapons inspectors in rebel controlled neighborhoods. The Syrian Air Force has reportedly begun bombarding rebel targets near a chemical weapons facility in Safira. The air raid seems to be an attempt by the Syrian government to clear the area of rebels to allow weapons inspectors access to the facility.

SHUTDOWN
NNSA Funding Bill Floated in House
Global Security Newswire – October 10, 2013
The House of Representatives may consider a bill that would restore funding to the National Nuclear Security Administration through December 15th. This bill would also include funding for the intelligence community and border security. It is not clear if the House will vote on the bill or not, but the earliest vote could come today.

Nation’s Nuclear Weapons Labs Prep for Shutdown
Eric Mack, Forbes – October 10, 2013
Following news of the “orderly shutdown” of the Oak Ridge National Security Complex, it has been announced that the Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories will be shut down by October 21st. Most of the 18,000 employees of the two labs will be furloughed until the government shutdown ends or Congress approves funding to NNSA which operates the two labs. Other sites like the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are also reportedly receiving similar shutdown notices from NNSA.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Western powers talk disarmament, upgrade what’s left
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters – October 10, 2013
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has estimated that there are roughly 17,000 nuclear warheads around the world; this number is down by about 75% of the total about thirty years ago. Despite this decrease, all of the major nuclear armed states are currently in the process of or are considering modernizing their arsenals. These countries are the United States, China, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom. This has become a point of criticism for those in the nonproliferation community who argue that countries, like the United States, advocate for disarmament while in process of upgrading their own stockpiles.

General in Charge of ICBMs Fired
Robert Burns, Associated Press – October 11, 2013
The Air Force has announced that it has fired Major General Michael Carey for alleged “personal misbehavior.” The Air Force said that the firing came as the result of an investigation into apparent gambling issues. Maj. Gen. Carey was in command of the 20th Air Force which oversees about 450 missiles at three different bases.

IRAN
On Iran Talks, Congress Could Play ‘Bad Cop’
Mark Landler, New York Times – October 11, 2013
The sanctions bill passed by the House in July is currently in the hands of the Senate Banking Committee and could move forward to a debate in the coming weeks. The committee chairman, Senator Tim Johnson has agreed to temporarily hold off on the debate at the request of Secretary of State John Kerry so as to allow diplomats an opportunity to negotiate with Iranian officials next week. However, if the bill passes through the committee and moves to the Senate floor, observers worry that this could harm any chance for negotiations with the Iranian government.

Posted in: Blog

October 10, 2013

What We’re Reading Now – Mixed Opinions on Upcoming Talks With Iran

IRAN
Republican Pushes New Bill to Authorize War With Iran
John Hudson, Associated Press – October 8 2013
Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) is currently searching for a co-sponsor for a bill that would authorize a US military strike against Iran. A number of foreign policy experts are concerned that this bill could damage diplomatic efforts next week at the P5+1 talks.

Security Experts Urge Obama To Continue Engagement With Iran On Nuclear Issue
Hayes Brown, Think Progress – October 9, 2013
The Iran Project, a group of thirty-five security experts, scholars and former government officials, have sent a letter to President Obama applauding his recent diplomatic efforts with Iran. They also pledged their support for the upcoming P5+1 negotiations.

Editorial: The narrow path to a nuclear deal with Iran
The Editors, Chicago Tribune – October 8, 2013
A deal with Iran that would allow the country to develop nuclear materials under UN nuclear inspectors would be “extremely risky”. In the past ten years, Iran has proved that it cannot be trusted to abide by international restraints.

VIETNAM
US, Vietnam sign nuclear trade agreement
Lesley Wroughton, Reuters –  October 10, 2013
The US and Vietnam have signed an agreement that allows the transfer of peaceful nuclear technology from the former to the latter. Vietnam is planning on building its first nuclear plant and the agreement will create opportunities for US businesses in the country.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
NNSA Sets Spring 2014 as Target For Plutonium-Disposition Decision
Douglas P. Guarino, Global Security Newswire – October 9, 2013
The National Nuclear Security Administration has targeted spring 2014 for completion of an assessment of possible options regarding the disposal of surplus weapons-grade plutonium. Many observers have claimed that this indicates a construction slowdown of one year at a reprocessing facility in South Carolina.

3-star admiral fired as No. 2 nuclear commander
Associated Press – October 9, 2013
Vice Admiral Tim Giardina, the deputy commander of US nuclear forces, was relieved of duty yesterday. He is currently under investigation in light of allegations that he had used counterfeit chips at an Iowa casino. The White House has nominated Air Force Lt. Gen. James Kowalski as Giardina’s successor.

RUSSIA
Russian warheads fueling half of US nuclear power
The Denver Post Staff, The Denver Post – October 10, 2013
Low-enriched uranium fuel from Russia has provided half of the nuclear fuel in US nuclear power stations since 1993. Russia provided the fuel through the deconstruction of 20,000 its Cold War nuclear warheads. The last shipment of this low-enriched uranium fuel is scheduled for the end of this year.

SA plans to grow Russian nuclear ties
Carol Paton, – October 10, 2013
The South African government is planning on strengthening its nuclear cooperation with Russia amid South African plans to build three new nuclear power stations in the next twenty years. An agreement would most likely allow Russian state-owned nuclear corporations an advantage in pursuing commercial contracts in the country.

Posted in: Blog

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