Council for a Livable World

IRAN
Iran’s president calls for post-Soviet security alliance to unite in alliance against West
Washington Post – June 15, 2011
ASTANA, Kazakhstan — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Wednesday for a security alliance of several former Soviet nations and China to form a united front against the West. Ahmadinejad’s address to fellow heads of state at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Kazakhstan will likely deepen suspicions that the bloc is intended as a counterweight to the United States across the region. In a summit declaration signed by all the member states, the organization also attacked missile defense programs in another apparent dig at the United States.

Clinton accuses Iran of role in Syrian crackdown
Associated Press – June 14, 2011
WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is accusing Iran of supporting its ally Syria in a brutal military crackdown on political opponents. Clinton said Tuesday in a statement issued in Washington that Iran’s complicity in abuses is coinciding with the two-year anniversary of its crackdown on citizens who protested after the contested election that handed another term to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Iran: Timetable Set for Americans’ Trial
Associated Press – June 14, 2011
Iran expects to make a final decision by late August in the case of three Americans charged with espionage, the official news agency IRNA said on Tuesday. The three Americans — Shane M. Bauer, Josh F. Fattal and Sarah E. Shourd — were detained in July 2009 along the Iran-Iraq border.

NORTH KOREA
Myanmar nukes? Defector’s tale stokes suspicions
Matthew Pennington, Associated Press – June 15, 2011
WASHINGTON (AP) — Among the hundreds of thousands who have fled Myanmar and its tyrannical rulers over the years is a military insider who claims he carried a big secret with him: evidence of a hidden nuclear weapons program. Defector Sai Thein Win’s account of his three years working in two clandestine factories, even with the trove of photos he brought with him, is no smoking gun. It has deepened suspicions, however, that Myanmar’s xenophobic military leaders hanker for an atomic deterrent.

Official: 9 North Koreans defected by boat to South _ likely to complicate nations’ relations
Hyung-Jin Kim, Associated Press  – June 15, 2011
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Nine North Koreans defected by sea to South Korea over the weekend, an official said Wednesday, in a development expected to complicate already-tense relations between the nations. The North Koreans on a small boat crossed into South Korean waters off the peninsula’s disputed western sea border on Saturday, the South Korean official said, requesting anonymity because Seoul wasn’t officially confirming the defections. The North Koreans – three men, two women and four children – said they want to resettle in South Korea, the official said.

S. Korea vows strong response if N. Korea attacks
AFP – June 15, 2011
SEOUL — South Korea’s military must retaliate “strongly and thoroughly” if North Korea attacks again, President Lee Myung-Bak said on Wednesday. He made the remarks in a speech read out on his behalf at the inauguration of a new military command, created to bolster defences on islands near the disputed Yellow Sea border.

U.S. ‘Wants to Avoid Mistakes with N.Korea’
Chosunilbo – June 15, 2011
A top U.S. diplomat says the United States is prepared to resume talks with North Korea, but it wants to avoid the mistakes made in previous negotiations with the communist nation. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg told Foreign Policy magazine in an interview published Tuesday that no policy is the right policy forever. On North Korea, he said that the U.S. government’s basic conviction has been a preparedness to engage in negotiations, but also a desire to avoid the mistakes of the past.

MISSILE DEFENSE
Czech Republic pulls out of US missile shield plan
Karel Janicek, Associated Press – June 15, 2011
PRAGUE (AP) — The Czech Republic is withdrawing from U.S. missile defense plans out of frustration at its diminished role in a new U.S. plan, the Czech defense minister told The Associated Press Wednesday. The Bush administration first proposed stationing 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and an advanced radar in the Czech Republic, saying the system was aimed at blunting future missile threats from Iran. But Russia angrily objected and warned that it would station its own missiles close to Poland if the plan went through. In September 2009, the Obama administration shelved that plan and offered a new, reconfigured phased program with a smaller role for the Czechs . . .

PAKISTAN
Pakistan Arrests C.I.A. Informants in Bin Laden Raid
Kuni Takahashi, New York Times – June 14, 2011
WASHINGTON — Pakistan’s top military spy agency has arrested some of the Pakistani informants who fed information to the Central Intelligence Agency in the months leading up to the raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, according to American officials. A casualty of the recent tension between the countries is an ambitious Pentagon program to train Pakistani paramilitary troops to fight Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the northwestern tribal areas.

NATO
Gates says US, European allies are ‘slowly growing apart,’ but final NATO split not imminent
Associated Press – June 15, 2011
Gates made a splash with a scathing speech last week in Brussels, home of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in which he said the 62-year-old alliance faces a “dim, if not dismal” future. He was not disowning NATO but warning that a years-long fraying of trans-Atlantic ties could eventually break the bond.

IRAN
Police Break Up Protest in Iran
New York Times – June 13, 2011
TEHRAN (AP) — Iranian police swinging clubs chased protesters and made arrests on Sunday to disperse hundreds of people who gathered in the capital to mark the second anniversary of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election, the opposition said. Claims of fraud in the June 2009 election had sent waves of protesters into streets around the nation for months.

Iran Without Nukes
Roger Cohen (Op-ed), New York Times – June 13, 2011
LONDON — Remember Iran? I do. It’s been two years since the Iranian people rose up to protest a stolen election with a bravery that stirred the world and presented Americans with a truer image of a young and highly educated nation than the old specter of the bearded Islamic zealot . . . I would probe this weakness through new approaches. But we are stuck still with the world’s most paranoid relationship: the American-Iranian relationship.

In Iran, ‘couch rebels’ prefer Facebook
Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post – June 13, 2011
TEHRAN — Two years ago, Iranian activists used social media sites as engines to organize massive anti-government demonstrations. But now, activists say, the limitless freedoms available online are proving to be a distraction from real-world dissent. Instead of marching in the streets, the same doctors, artists and students who led the demonstrations in 2009 are playing Internet games . . .

Iran accuses West of meddling in Syria
Reuters – June 14, 2011
TEHRAN — Iran accused Israel’s allies on Tuesday of interfering in Syria after Western countries said Tehran may be helping crush dissent there. Iran, which crushed its own anti-government protests after the contested re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009, has voiced support for uprisings in most of the Arab world, but not Syria with which it has what it sees as a “line of resistance” against Israel as both support militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

NORTH KOREA
S. Korean chief nuke envoy in Japan to discuss N. Korea
Shin Hae-in, Korea Herald – June 14, 2011
Chief nuclear envoys of South Korea and Japan are to meet in Tokyo Wednesday to discuss ways to resume the suspended dialogue with North Korea over its ongoing nuclear ambitions. Before heading to Japan Tuesday, Seoul’s chief envoy Wi Sung-lac said he plans to share views with his counterpart Shinsuke Sugiyama on whether changes must be made to the existing strategy to get Pyongyang to talk with Seoul before rejoining larger-scale peace talks with regional powers.

North Korea Keeps Silent on Ship’s Turnaround
Evan Ramstad, Wall Street Journal – June 14, 2011
SEOUL—The turning back of a North Korean ship suspected of transporting missiles and parts, the highest-profile interdiction against Pyongyang in more than a year, shows that the cat-and-mouse game over its weapons program is still on—and that it remains unclear which side is winning. Under pressure from the U.S. and other countries, a North Korean vessel called the M/V Light turned around in the South China Sea two weeks ago and returned to the North last week, U.S. and South Korean officials said Monday.

S.Korea scrambles cyber defense for world’s “most wired” country
Jack Kim, Reuters – June 14, 2011
(Reuters) – South Korea is scrambling to protect its computer systems after attacks against government agencies and financial institutions exposed vulnerabilities in a country that has the deepest Internet penetration anywhere. South Korea, still technically at war with North Korea, is especially vulnerable due to high Internet penetration and as the obvious likely target of the reclusive rival, officials said.

AFGHANISTAN
US establishes contact with Mullah Omar
Qaiser Butt, International Herald Tribune – June 14, 2011
ISLAMABAD: The United States has established contacts with elusive Taliban leader Mullah Omar to negotiate an end to the conflict in Afghanistan. A former Afghan Taliban spokesman has played a key role in the US-Taliban communication, a source told The Express Tribune.

Focus of Afghan war is shifting eastward
Joshua Partlow and Greg Jaffe, Washington Post – June 14, 2011
KHOST, Afghanistan — The Afghan war is returning to the place it began: the violent eastern borderlands with Pakistan, where the Taliban and al-Qaeda slipped out of American reach a decade ago and have organized their insurgency ever since. In southern Afghanistan, the United States has succeeded over the past year in prying the Taliban’s grip from parts of Kandahar and Helmand provinces. But U.S. military commanders recognize they have far to go in the country’s east . . .

In the wake of the 2010 elections, many observers believed that Republicans would have the upper hand in the upcoming Congressional redistricting process and use it to build on their already sizable majority in the House of Representatives.  Following the Republican wave of 2010, Republicans enjoyed control of both the Governorship and legislature in 20 states.  The Democrats controlled only 11 states and 18 states were split.

However, as the minutiae of the redistricting process begin to play out, this does not seem to be the case.  Two factors are largely responsible.  First, Republicans won so many seats in 2010 that there are few left for them to win through redistricting, and second, the changing demographics of the U.S. population simply favor the Democrats.  Most places where news seats are being added will tend to elect Democrats while the populations of Republican parts of the country are shrinking.

Two states in the midst of their redistricting processes demonstrate that Democrats are actually gaining seats – Illinois and California.

Illinois is one of the few cases where Democrats control both the legislature and Governorship.  For this reason, observers expected Republicans to lose seats.  The influential Cook Report originally predicted Republicans to lose two seats.  Both houses of the legislature have now approved a new map, which is awaiting Governor Quinn’s signature, and Republican losses may be double that.

4 Republican districts have the potential to go Democratic:

8th – Rep. Joe Walsh (R) defeated Melissa Bean (D) here in a close race in 2010.  The old version of this district was close in Presidential years, with Obama defeating McCain 56-43%.  As now drawn, Obama would have won 62% in the district (all numbers on how new districts would have voted in 2008 are courtesy of the awesome folks at Daily Kos Elections – formerly Swing State Project).

10th – Rep. Bob Dold (R) squeaked by with 51% of the vote to replace now Sen. Mark Kirk (R) in 2010.  The district is slightly more Democratic after redistricting, with Obama’s victory going from 61% to 63%.

11th – Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) upset Debbie Halvorson (D) here 57-43%, but Obama’s margin of victory swells from 53% to 61% on the new map.

17th – Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) unseated Phil Hare with 53% in 2010.  Obama’s margin expands from 56% to 60% in the new district.

California is an odd beast in the redistricting menagerie.  A number of states use bipartisan citizen commissions to draw new maps as California does rather than relying on the state legislature, but in a new development this cycle, the California commission is strictly forbidden from using incumbency as a factor in its redistricting decisions. Commissions usually start with existing districts and modify them to factor in demographic changes, this frequently has the effect of helping protect existing incumbents.  The California commission, on the other hand, now completely throws out the existing map and starts again from scratch.  This has the effect of drawing many incumbents into districts with other neighboring incumbents and creating some districts with no natural incumbent at all.

The bipartisan commission issued its first maps last week.  These are not final, and are offered for public comment.  The commission must have a final map by August 15.  

Because the lines are not final, it’s too early to know how each district will lean for sure, but expert opinion is that it is not good news for Republicans.  Here’s the initial take of Cook Report redistricting guru Dave Wasserman, lead author of the massive – and massively geeky – Better Know A District:

“First CA impression: Dems +4. Gallegly (R), Dreier (R), Miller (R), Bilbray (R) lose out, Loretta Sanchez (D) keeps winnable district”

David Jarman, at Daily Kos Elections thinks Wasserman missed one other Republican at risk: Ed Royce (R), in the current 40th, centered on Fullerton.

By Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-six-states-that-could-decide-the-presidency-and-the-senate/2011/06/09/AGI67BPH_blog.html

Of the 10 Senate races most likely to switch parties in the 2012 election, six of them are in states likely to be targeted by the two national parties at the presidential level.

Those six states — New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin and Virginia — could well then decide not only the identity of the next president but also which party controls the Senate in 2013.

In 2008, President Obama carried five of the six, losing only Missouri — and that narrowly.

But in the intervening three years, Republicans have captured the governorships of New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia as well as 13 U.S. House seats in those six states combined.

The question then for 2012 is whether the political atmospherics will more closely resemble 2008 (good for Democrats) or 2010 (good for Republicans).

Of the 10 Senate races most likely to switch parties in the 2012 election, six of them are in states likely to be targeted by the two national parties at the presidential level.

Those six states — New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin and Virginia — could well then decide not only the identity of the next president but also which party controls the Senate in 2013.

In 2008, President Obama carried five of the six, losing only Missouri — and that narrowly.

But in the intervening three years, Republicans have captured the governorships of New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia as well as 13 U.S. House seats in those six states combined.

The question then for 2012 is whether the political atmospherics will more closely resemble 2008 (good for Democrats) or 2010 (good for Republicans).

To be clear, Senate races tend to be less influenced than House races by top of the ticket dynamics. But, in each of these six states, the Senate contests are widely expected to be very close — meaning that a slight movement at the margins could be the difference between winning and losing.

As always, the number one ranked race on the Line is considered the most likely to switch parties in 2010. Kudos or critiques of our rankings? The comments section awaits.

To the Line!

Coming off the Line: Florida

Coming onto the Line: Wisconsin

10. New Mexico (Democratic controlled): The symmetry of the two primaries here is striking. Both Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) and former congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) are seen as strong candidates to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D), but both face Hispanic candidates who hold statewide office — in a plurality Latino state. The jury is still out on just how formidable state Auditor Hector Balderas (D) and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) will be, but if they can run good campaigns, that will make both primaries very interesting. Case in point: Wilson has been extremely aggressive in trying to define Sanchez from day one. Republicans think she’s running a strong campaign, but winning the primary with such a moderate record will be tough (as she found out in her 2008 Senate primary loss) and this is a Democratic-leaning state. (Previous ranking: 10)

9. Ohio (D): At the start of the 2012 cycle, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) was at or near the top of Republicans’ target lists. But six months in, Brown has slipped out of the GOP’s marquee pickup chances although, given the swing nature of the Buckeye State and his largely liberal record, he is still likely to face a real fight next fall. The biggest problem so far for Republicans has been recruiting a top tier candidate. Newly elected state Treasurer Josh Mandel appears likely to be the establishment pick but former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is also likely to run. (Previous ranking: 7)

8. Massachusetts (Republican-controlled): We’re still waiting for the Democratic field to shake out here. There have been whispers about Obama adviser Elizabeth Warren running for the seat, but for now it’s Newton Mayor Setti Warren, City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, and activist Bob Massie in the race. We know it’s early, but with the huge sums of money that popular Sen. Scott Brown (R) is raising, Democrats would be best served to get their primary figured out early on. This will be a tough state for Brown in a presidential year but the lack of direction in the Democratic field keeps this down on the Line for now. (Previous ranking: 8)

7. Wisconsin (Democratic-controlled): Former senator Russ Feingold (D) is dipping his toe in the water and says he may run for either retiring Sen. Herb Kohl’s (D) open Senate seat or in the potential recall of Gov. Scott Walker (R). A decision is due by Labor Day, but we’ve reported before that Wisconsin Democrats are skeptical that he will jump right back into politics. Even if Feingold does run, though, we would expect a competitive race, since he has never taken more than 55 percent of the vote statewide. If he doesn’t run, the focus on the Democratic side will be on Reps. Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin. On the GOP side, former governor Tommy Thompson looks likely to be in, but nothing is official, and he could well face a significant primary. (Previous ranking: N/A)

6. Nevada (R): The complete collapse of former Sen. John Ensign’s (R) political career — the final chapter came when he resigned from office in late April — opened the door for Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval to appoint Dean Heller to the Senate. It remains to be seen whether Heller’s newfound status is a good thing or a bad one given the anti-incumbent mentality that pervaded the country in the 2010 election. For Democrats, Rep. Shelley Berkley is the favorite but self financing businessman Byron Georgiou is threatening to make the primary race more competitive than most D.C. party strategists would like.(Previous ranking: 6)

5. Missouri (D): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is running in a very tough state — the one bona fide swing state that President Obama lost in 2008. Obama is on the ballot again and has poor numbers in Missouri. McCaskill’s saving grace could be an aimless GOP primary field in which none of the candidates are seen as terribly strong. Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Todd Akin are both in the race, and businessman John Brunner is expected to run. Republicans are hoping that at least one of them will have what it takes to defeat an incumbent. But the jury’s out. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Virginia (D): No race is likely to change less than this battle of the political titans between former Govs. Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). Both men are well known in Commonwealth and are proven fundraisers. The top of the ticket dynamic — President Obama is promising an aggressive campaign in the state — will matter. This is going to be a very close race. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Montana (D): There’s an interesting dynamic here when it comes to Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget. While Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) was one of four Republicans in the House to vote against it, Sen. Jon Tester (D) has said that it’s a good place to start although he did eventually vote against it. If Democrats are hoping to use the GOP’s Medicare proposal against Republicans in the 2012 elections, this will be the one state where that strategy will be tough to implement. Republicans will need this state if they are going to retake the majority. Rehberg’s second quarter fundraising report, due July 15, will give us a good idea at how formidable he will be. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Nebraska (D): The Republican field to face Sen. Ben Nelson (D) continues to grow with state Sen. Deb Fischer expected to join state Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg in the primary fight. Bruning is regarded as the race’s frontunner although Stenberg is positioning himself as the race’s lone conservative. Nelson is clearly vulnerable in a state that went for Arizona Sen. John McCain by 15 points in 2008. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. North Dakota (D): Rep. Rick Berg’s (R) entrance into the race establishes him as a heavy favorite to replace retiring Sen. Kent Conrad (D) next fall. It’s hard to see Democrats spending much time — or money — to hold this seat. (Previous ranking: 1)