Council for a Livable World

When it rains, it pours!  Three polls have been released in the past few days looking at the race between CLW endorsee Gary Peters and Rep. Joe Knollenberg.  Taken together they paint a pretty clear picture of Peters holding a narrow lead in a tight race.  Here are the numbers:

Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/4-5, likely voters, 8/17-19 in parens):
    Gary Peters (D): 46 (41)
    Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 37 (37)
    Jack Kevorkian (I): 2 (8)
    Undecided: 15 (14)
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

Mitchell Research & Communications (9/30-10/2, likely voters):
    Gary Peters (D): 43
    Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 43
    (MoE: ±6%)

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Gary Peters (10/6-7, likely voters):
    Gary Peters (D): 43
    Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 40
    Jack Kevorkian (I): 5
    Other: 5
    Undecided: 8
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

Gary Peters is well known and liked in Michigan due to his successful tenure as State Lottery Commissioner.  He is reported to be ready to announce that he raised more than $650k since July, quite a tidy sum for a challenger.  Also, as I pointed out in an earlier post, McCan’s decision to stop campaigning in Michigan should put a serious damper on Republican organizing in downballot races.  All, in all, things are looking very good for Peters.

Help Peters reach the finish line here.

 

A new poll echos the poll I blogged on the other day, showing Ashwin Madia leading the race to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R):

SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 8/26-28 in parens):

   Ashwin Madia (D): 46 (41)
    Erik Paulsen (R): 43 (44)
    David Dillon (IP): 8
    (MoE: ±4%)

Doubtless one of the reasons Madia is winning is because his experiences in Iraq have enabled him to eloquently describe a pragmatic approach to ending that conflict, as this video demonstrates.

You can learn more about Ashwin Madia here.

 

There’s an interesting mini-scandal erupting in the Minnesota Senate race between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Council-backed Democratic challenger Al Franken.

Ken Silverstein reported in Harper’s this week that Minnesota businessman Nasser Kazeminy, a big donor to the G.O.P. and to Coleman, “has in the past covered the bills for Coleman’s lavish clothing purchases at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis.”

After a few blogs picked up the story, the Coleman campaign was forced to address the matter in a press conference. Lucky for those of us who like to watch a campaign flack squirm, somebody recorded the whole thing.

God, that was brutal (h/t Yglesias). But Coleman is playing off the same sheet of music, as you can see here:

(h/t brownsox)

Senate rules stipulate that gifts over $250 are strictly prohibited. Which leaves one to wonder: What exactly can you buy at Neiman Marcus for under $250?

A new independent poll in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Shays (R) with a ten point lead over CLW-endorsed Jim Himes: A Sacred Heart Univ.WSHU-FM poll; conducted 9/22-25; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Chris Shays…

Democrats currently hold a 51 – 49 majority in the U.S. Senate, with the 51st vote being that very independent (read turning Republican) Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

Senate rules, however, frequently require 60 votes to prevail on controversial issues, from health care to minimum wage to the Iraq war.  This high threshold has frustrated Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

A still higher threshold is required for the Senate to give its advice and consent to treaties — just say, for example, a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty or a treaty to reduce significantly the number of nuclear weapons.  Both are goals ardently desired for action in the next Administration by those who focus on nuclear weapons .

With the sour atmosphere facing the country, Republicans knew that in this election they faced losses.

Now those losses may get even greater than expected.

Political guru Stuart Rothenberg, writing in the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call [subscription required], suddenly finds a 60-vote Democratic majority a real possibility.

He wrote on October 6: “The outlook in Senate races continues to deteriorate for Republicans, with Democratic gains at least in the high single digits increasingly likely.”

Rothenberg now finds a 60-vote Democratic majority turning from distant mirage to Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) reality.

Rothenberg continues:  “Virginia and New Mexico are already gone, and Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon aren’t far behind. Add in North Carolina, and Democrats are plus-seven (and at 58 seats) without Minnesota or Mississippi, which are up for grabs. “

And he added to this count the unexpected possibilities of Democrats grabbing upsets in both Kentucky and Georgia.

For more on current poling, check out Council for a Livable World’s constantly updated list of polls:
Full polling data is here.