Cross posted from Iraq Insider

Ambassador Peter Galbraith, Senior Diplomatic Fellow at the Council’s sister organization, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, just published his latest essay in the New York Review of Books. The title says it all: Is This a ‘Victory’?

Galbraith’s assessment of the ongoing sectarian disputes in Iraq is fantastic. He excels at explaining the hidden motivations behind different Iraqi leaders’ seemingly altruistic actions.

Galbraith’s essay also is extremely relevant within the context of the presidential race. I regularly take umbrage at John McCain and other surge enthusiasts’ constant use of words like “victory” and “defeat.” I posted last week about what George Kennan might say on the matter. The week before that I couldn’t help but remind people that General David Petraeus said that he did not know that he would ever apply “victory” to Iraq.

In the foreign policy debate last Friday night, McCain again used the word victory without defining what exactly that means for the United States in Iraq. “We came up with a great general and a strategy that has succeeded,” McCain said on Friday. “This strategy has succeeded. And we are winning in Iraq. And we will come home with victory and with honor.”

Galbraith, on the other hand, grapples with the uncertainties:

Less violence, however, is not the same thing as success. The United States did not go to war in Iraq for the purpose of ending violence between contending sectarian forces. Success has to be measured against US objectives. John McCain proclaims his goal to be victory and says we are now winning in Iraq (a victory that will, of course, be lost if his allegedly pro-surrender opponent wins). He considers victory to be an Iraq that is “a democratic ally.” George W. Bush has defined victory as a unified, democratic, and stable Iraq. Neither man has explained how he will transform Iraq’s ruling theocrats into democrats, diminish Iran’s vast influence in Baghdad, or reconcile Kurds and Sunnis to Iraq’s new order. Remarkably, neither the Democrats nor the press has challenged them to do so.

[snip]

John McCain says that partly because of his persistent support of the surge, we are now winning the Iraq war. He defines victory as an Iraq that is a democratic ally. Yet he advocates continued US military support to an Iraqi government led by Shiite religious parties committed to the establishment of an Islamic republic. He takes a harder line on Iran than President Bush, but supports Iraqi factions that are Iran’s closest allies in the Middle East. He praises the Awakening and but seems not to have realized that the Iraqi government is intent on crushing it. He has denounced the Obama-Biden plan for a decentralized state but has said nothing about how he would protect Iraq’s Kurds, the only committed American allies in the country.

George W. Bush has put the United States on the side of undemocratic Iraqis who are Iran’s allies. John McCain would continue the same approach. It is hard to understand how this can be called a success–or a path to victory.

Galbraith’s realistic analysis or McCain’s empty slogans? You be the judge.

On September 23, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees agreed to a compromise Fiscal Year 2008 Defense Authorization Bill.

The bill passed the House on September 24 and should be considered by the Senate very soon.

The Bush Administration wanted a new nuclear weapon called the Reliable Replacement Warhead – Congress said no.

Bush wanted funds for the Space Test Bed for space-based interceptor weapons – Congress said no way.

Our lame duck leader wants to commit the U.S. to a hurried deployment of a new missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic – but Congress cut $246 million from the more than $700 million requested for the program and added some tight restrictions…Like, the missile defense system actually should work before being deployed.  

What an unusual concept: That wasn’t a factor in the national missile defense system already deployed in Alaska and California.

Cart, horse, you get the picture.

So much for those who had predicted that Congress would fall all over itself pushing money at the European third site in the wake of the Russia-Georgia conflict. It just didn’t happen.

And Congress added money for non-proliferation programs. Which is always good.

Not bad for a closely divided Congress under George W. Bush.

See the full analysis from our research center.

During the hot presidential primary season, polling firms focused on presidential primary outcomes and not too much on congressional elections.

Now there are several new polls on Senate races each day that provide a glimpse of the contests.

There are some very interesting developments in the past few days.

Most surprising – a Kentucky poll showing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) dead even with his challenger, businessman Brian Lunsford. This is the second poll in a week showing Lunsford catching up. It is rare for party leaders to lose re-election battles in their home states, but it happened to Tom Dashle in South Dakota a few years back.

In another unexpected development, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), who appears to be spending all his time campaigning nationally for John McCain, is now only 9 points ahead of his little known challenger, Bob Conley (D). If nothing else, Graham may have to spend more time in before the home folks instead of taking the McCain pal role.

In two other Senate contests, Oregon and North Carolina, the Democratic challengers may have taken narrow leads over Republican incumbents.

In fact, political guru Stu Rothenberg has moved the Oregon Senate race to “lean takeover” for Jeff Merkley (D).

Nationally, most polls show Barack Obama with a narrow lead after trailing a couple of weeks ago.

Could there be a similar trend in Senate contests? Stay tuned, and check back frequently. This compendium will be undated almost every weekday.

Full polling data after the jump.

N.B. This listing includes mstly media and public polls; party or candidate polls are generally not used unless other polls are unavailable. This listing also tries to avoid automated polls such as Rasmussen except if there is no alternative or to provide alternative numbers. Because all polls have a margin of error in their numbers, they should be taken as useful indicators at the moment the polling is conducted rather than absolute truth. In some instances, conflicting polls will be provided.  Numbers may not add up to precisely 100% due to rounding.

Alabama
66% – Sen. Jeff Sessions (R)
31% – Vivian Davis Figures (D)
3% – Undecided
Survey USA poll conducted September 16 – 17, 2008 – 655 likely voters

Alaska
47% – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)
43% – Sen. Ted Stevens (R)
9% – Undecided, other
Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll conducted September 17 -21, 2008 – 601 likely voters

Colorado
48% – Rep. Mark Udall (D)
40% – ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R)  
12% – Undecided, other
Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 14 – 21, 2008 – 1,418 likely voters

Delaware
69% – Sen. Joseph Biden (D)
26% – Christine O’Donnell (R)
6% – Undecided, other
Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll conducted September 17 -21, 2008 – 601 likely voters

Georgia
53% – Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R)
36% – Jim Martin (D)
11% – Undecided, other
Survey USA poll conducted September14 – 16, 2008 for Roll Call – 684 likely voters

Idaho
56% – Lt. Gov. James Risch (R)
33% – ex-Rep. Larry LaRocco (D)
11% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 16 – 17, 2008 for Daily Kos – 500 likely voters

Illlinois
56% – Sen. Dick Durbin (D)
35% – Steve Sauerberg (R)
  9% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 15 – 18 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV – 800 likely voters

Iowa
54% – Sen. Tom Harkin (D)
40% – Christopher Reed (R)
6% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted September 25, 2008 – 700 likely voters

Kansas
55% – Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
35% – former Rep. Jim Slattery (D)
10% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted September 21 – 22, 2008 – 666 likely voters

Kentucky

45% – Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)
44% – Bruce Lunsford (D)
11% – Undecided, other
Louisville Courier-Journal poll conducted September 22 – 25, 2008 by Mason Dixon – 717 likely voters

Lousiana
46% – Sen. Mary Landrieu (D)
40% – State Treasurer John Kennedy (R)
14% – Undecided
Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted June 26 – 28, 2008 – 600 likely voters

Maine
57% – Sen. Susan Collins (R)
38% – Rep. Tom Allen (D)
5% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8-10, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Michigan
56% – Sen. Carl Levin (D)
28% – state rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
16% – Undecided
Detroit News & four television stations poll conducted September 14 – 17, 2008 by EPIC-MRA – 600 likely voters

Massachusetts
65% – Rep. John Kerry (D)
30% – Jeff Beatty (R)
5% – Undecided, other
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23, 2008 – 500 likely voters

Minnesota
49% – Rep. Norm Coleman (R)  
42% – Al Franken (D)
9% – Undecided, other
Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 14 – 21, 2008 – 1,301 likely voters

Mississippi
48% – Rep. Roger Wicker (R)
43% – ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
9% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8 – 10, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Montana
64% – Sen. Max Baucus (D)
31% – Mike Lange (R)  
6% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted September 7, 2008 – 700 likely voters

Nebraska
56% – ex-Governor Mike Johanns (R)
31% – Scott Kleeb (D)
13% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted July 28, 2008 – 500 likely voters

New Hampshire
52% – Sen. John Sununu (R)
45% – former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
3% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23, 2008 – 700 likely voters

50% – former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
41% – Sen. John Sununu (R)
9% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 22 – 24, 2008 for Concord Monitor – 800 likely voters

New Jersey
48% – Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D)
39% – former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R)
13% – Undecided, other
Marist poll conducted September 10 – 14, 2008 – 1,187 likely voters

New Mexico
56% – Rep. Tom Udall (D)
41% – Rep. Steve Pearce (R)
3% – Undecided
Survey USA poll conducted September 14 – 16, 2008 for KOB-TV – 671 likely voterss

North Carolina
48% – Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)
42% – Kay Hagan (D)
10% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8 – 10 , 2008 for DailyKos – 600 likely voters

48% – Kay Hagan (D)
45% – Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)
7% – Undecided, other
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23 , 2008 – 500 likely voters

Oklahoma
56% – Sen. Jim Inhofe (R)
34% – Andrew Rice (D)
10% undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 16 – 18, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Oregon
45% – Jeff Merkley (D)
40% – Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
15% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 22 – 24, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

South Carolina
51% – Sen. Lindsey Graham (R)
42% – Bob Conley (D)
7% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 221 – 24, 2008 – 600 likely voters

Tennessee
50% – Sen. Lamar Alexander (R)
26% – Bob Tuke (D)
23% – Undecided
Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted September 15 – 27, 2008 – 635 people

Texas
48% – Sen. John Cornyn (R)
37% – Rick Noriega (D)
16% – Undecided
Rasmussen conducted August 21, 2008 – 500 likely voters

Virginia
61% – ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D)
29% – ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)
10% – Undecided, other
ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted September 18 -21, 2008 – 857 registered voters

West Virginia
61% – Sen. Jay Rockefeller ( D)
33% – Jay Wolfe (R)
6% – Undecided, other
Rasmussen conducted September 24, 2008 – 500 likely voters

Wyoming 1
58% – Sen. John Barrasso (R)
34% – Nick Carter (D)
8% – Undecided, other

Wyoming 2
59% – Sen John Enzi (R)
35% – Chris Rothfuss (D)
6% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted for both seats September 22 – 24, 2008 for Daily Kos – 500 likely voters

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