Senator Lieberman’s descent into political isolation will come after the election if the Democrats have at least 52 seats, no matter who is President. Lieberman has to pay a political price in the Senate for his endorsement of John McCain for President.

As a participant in successful efforts to strip House Democrats who supported Goldwater in 1964 of seniority, and strip three unfair and arbritrary Committee Chairmen of their posts after the House Democratic landslide in 1974 (post-Watergate), I can attest to the precise reasons for stripping legislators of their chairmanships and seniority.

Lieberman’s views on the Iraq war and his Iran bellicosity are not reasons. Even his outrageous connection with Reverend Hagee does not per se sink Lieberman. Even McCain rejected Hagee’s endorsement after his anti-Catholic comments. Hagee’s tepid apology to Catholics does not reduce the virulence of his essential bigotry. Lieberman’s occassional liberalism (pro-choice, opposition to Alito’s confirmation, his leadership on global warming and DC’s rights to vote and to representation in the House) do not mitigate his actions in support of McCain for President.

Where Lieberman has reached the point of no return is his endorsement of McCain for President. This alone puts Lieberman over the line. His active campaigning for McCain serves to emphasize Lieberman’s endorsement. To speak at the Republican convention serves to remind the rest of us that Lieberman will soon be as forgotten as was Zell Miller, the Georgia Democratic Senator who spoke at the Republican convention in 2004 in support of Bush over Kerry.

Lieberman wants to save his Chairmanship. So he has contributed $100,000 from his political fund to elect Senate Democrats. He is trying to buy his way out of a mortal political sin. No sale, Lieberman. That money, and even future money, does not forgive his support of McCain for President. The people of Connecticut can elect whomever they choose. That does not mean that official is entitled to the benefits of the Democratic caucus. That is what House Democrats established in 1964 and 1974. Senate Democrats should follow suit.

True, right now Lieberman has a whip hand. If he leaves the caucus and votes with the Republicans to organize the Senate, Cheney breaks a 50-50 tie. That would mean Lieberman will have broken his unambiguous pledge to Connecticut voters that he would vote with the Democrats to organize the Senate. To break the pledge would make Lieberman’s legacy that of a liar or a Benedict Arnold.

Next year, hopefully, there will a different scenario. If Democrats reach the magic number of 52, Lieberman should be treated as Wayne Morse was when he supported, as a Republican, Stevenson over Eisenhower in 1952. Lieberman would lose his Committee Chairmanship (Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs), and all Committee assignments from the Senate Democrats. If Republicans wanted to give him Committee assignments, that would be the Republican Conference’s decision. Otherwise, he would get last choice and go to the bottom of the list.

Will Senate Democrats pass the easy test of disciplining Lieberman? That’s far from clear. They are likely to have to be shamed into exercising their basic party responsibilities.

CLW endorsed Chris Himes (D) released a poll today showing him dead even with Rep. Chris Shays (R) at 45% each.  As with the Markey poll below, this is paid for by the Himes campaign, so it may be weighted in his favor.  Even so, it is a dramatic change in a race that Shays seemed to dominate over the summer.

A likely factor is Shays’ refusal last week to back off his McCain like statement that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”  This congressional district is a bedroom community for Wall Street chock full of stock analysts and hedge fund brokers.  Somehow, I think they might have a different take on the health of their portfolios at the moment.

Himes had years of experience as an investment banker before going to work for a non-profit that works to provide low-income housing.  This resume might put him over the top this year against Shays, who as a long serving member of the Financial Services Committee might catch some of the blame for our economic implosion.

You can support Chris Himes here.

CLW-endorsed, Betsy Markey (D) released a poll showing her leading Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) in Colorado, 47-38%.  This poll was paid for by the Markey campaign, so take it with a grain of salt, but it is third poll in a row showing Markey with a lead several points beyond the poll’s margin of error (including one independent poll).

Musgrave has since responded with negative ads claiming that Markey scored favorable contracts for her old company – still half owned by her husband – when she was an aide to Senator Ken Salazar (D-CO).  Markey is calling the ads misleading and false.  Looks like this race is going to get ugly.

You can support Betsy Markey here.

 

On September 19, Chris Cillizza, political expert and master blogger from the Washington Post, updated his list of the top 10 Senate contests that may switch parties.

Only one contest shows any possibility of switching from D to R, and that is the Louisiana Senate seat held by Sen. Mary Landrieu. But the chances of that happening are declining.

Mark Warner of Virginia (D), on the other hand, is a lock to switch the Virginia Senate seat from Warner to Warner (John to Mark).

The next three Senate seats likely to move from red to blue are, in order, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire.  

Is the Senate ready for two Udalls?

Then there are a bunch of toss-ups – and a toss up for an incumbent seven weeks before Election Day is usually a sign of his or her impending doom.  

Alaska (Ted Stevens goes on trial today), Oregon, Minnesota and North Carolina all fit into that toss up category. So keep an eye on those too.

The modest good news for the GOP: Their candidate in Mississippi has moved into a narrow lead and Cillizza has removed Rep. Tom Allen’s contest against Maine incumbent Sen. Susan Collins from his top 10.

During the hot presidential primary season, polling firms focused on presidential primary outcomes and not too much on congressional elections.

Now there are several new polls on Senate races each day that provide a glimpse of the contests. Sometimes conflicting glimpses.

Surprise, surprise — in the first fall poll in Delaware, Sen. Joseph Biden (D) will keep his day job in the Senate if the Obama ticket does not win in November.

Genuinely surprising – a Kentucky poll showing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) only three points ahead of businessman Brian Lunsford.

But there is another poll taken only a few days before showing McConnell with a more comfortable 13 point lead.

Or take New Hampshire. In the Research 2000 poll, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), backed by Council for a Livable World, retains a 9 point lead over incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R).

In a controversial poll (controversial because of doubts about the accuracy of automated polls) Sununu actually leads Shaheen by7 points.

In Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) is either 3 points ahead or 5 points behind Council for a Livable World-endorsed Jeff Merkley (D)

Bottom line: devour polls if you like, but recognize that all polls are snapshots in time and can be very accurate or very inaccurate.

Full polling data after the jump.

N.B. This listing includes mostly media and public polls; party or candidate polls are generally not used unless other polls are unavailable. This listing also tries to avoid automated polls such as Rasmussen except if there is no alternative or to provide alternative numbers. Because all polls have a margin of error in their numbers, they should be taken as useful indicators at the moment the polling is conducted rather than absolute truth. In some instances, conflicting polls will be provided. Numbers may not add up to precisely 100% due to rounding.

Alabama
66% – Sen. Jeff Sessions (R)
31% – Vivian Davis Figures (D)
3% – Undecided
Survey USA poll conducted September 16 – 17, 2008 – 655 likely voters

Alaska
47% – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)
43% – Sen. Ted Stevens (R)
9% – Undecided, other
Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll conducted September 17 -21, 2008 – 601 likely voters

Colorado
48% – Rep. Mark Udall (D)
40% – ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R)  
12% – Undecided, other
Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 14 – 21, 2008 – 1,418 likely voters

Delaware
69% – Sen. Joseph Biden (D)
26% – Christine O’Donnell (R)
6% – Undecided, other
Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll conducted September 17 -21, 2008 – 601 likely voters

Georgia
53% – Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R)
36% – Jim Martin (D)
11% – Undecided, other
Survey USA poll conducted September14 – 16, 2008 for Roll Call – 684 likely voters

Idaho
56% – Lt. Gov. James Risch (R)
33% – ex-Rep. Larry LaRocco (D)
11% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 16 – 17, 2008 for Daily Kos – 500 likely voters

Illlinois
56% – Sen. Dick Durbin (D)
35% – Steve Sauerberg (R)
9% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 15 – 18 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV – 800 likely voters

Iowa
58% – Sen. Tom Harkin (D)
34% – Christopher Reed (R)
9% – undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted August 7, 2008 – 500 likely voters

Kansas
55% – Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
35% – former Rep. Jim Slattery (D)
10% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted September 21 – 22, 2008 – 666 likely voters

Kentucky
50% – Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)
37% – Bruce Lunsford (D)
13% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 15 – 17, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

49% – Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)
46% – Bruce Lunsford (D)
5% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted September 21 – 22, 2008 – 672 likely voters

Lousiana
46% – Sen. Mary Landrieu (D)
40% – State Treasurer John Kennedy (R)
14% – Undecided
Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted June 26 – 28, 2008 – 600 likely voters

Maine
57% – Sen. Susan Collins (R)
38% – Rep. Tom Allen (D)
5% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8-10, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Michigan
56% – Sen. Carl Levin (D)
28% – state rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
16% – Undecided
Detroit News & four television stations poll conducted September 14 – 17, 2008 by EPIC-MRA – 600 likely voters

Massachusetts
65% – Rep. John Kerry (D)
30% – Jeff Beatty (R)
5% – Undecided, other
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23, 2008 – 500 likely voters

Minnesota
49% – Rep. Norm Coleman (R)  
42% – Al Franken (D)
9% – Undecided, other
Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 14 – 21, 2008 – 1,301 likely voters

Mississippi
48% – Rep. Roger Wicker (R)
43% – ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
9% – Undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8 – 10, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Montana
64% – Sen. Max Baucus (D)
31% – Mike Lange (R)  
6% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted September 7, 2008 – 700 likely voters

Nebraska
56% – ex-Governor Mike Johanns (R)
31% – Scott Kleeb (D)
13% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted July 28, 2008 – 500 likely voters

New Hampshire
52% – Sen. John Sununu (R)
45% – former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
3% – Undecided
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23, 2008 – 700 likely voters

50% – former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
41% – Sen. John Sununu (R)
9% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 22 – 24, 2008 for Concord Monitor – 800 likely voters

New Jersey
48% – Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D)
39% – former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R)
13% – Undecided, other
Marist poll conducted September 10 – 14, 2008 – 1,187 likely voters

New Mexico
56% – Rep. Tom Udall (D)
41% – Rep. Steve Pearce (R)
3% – Undecided
Survey USA poll conducted September 14 – 16, 2008 for KOB-TV – 671 likely voterss

North Carolina
48% – Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)
42% – Kay Hagan (D)
10% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 8 – 10 , 2008 for DailyKos – 600 likely voters

48% – Kay Hagan (D)
45% – Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)
7% – Undecided, other
Rasmussen poll conducted September 23 , 2008 – 500 likely voters

Oklahoma
56% – Sen. Jim Inhofe (R)
34% – Andrew Rice (D)
10% undecided
Research 2000 poll conducted September 16 – 18, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

Oregon
42% – Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
39% – Jeff Merkley (D)
19% – undecided
Portland Tribune/Fox 12 poll conducted September 11 – 14, 2008 by conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall – 500 registered voters

45% – Jeff Merkley (D)
40% – Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
15% – Undecided, other
Research 2000 poll conducted September 22 – 24, 2008 for Daily Kos – 600 likely voters

South Carolina
54% – Sen. Lindsey Graham (R)
40% – Bob Conley (D)
6% – Undecided
SurveyUSA poll conducted September 21 – 22, 2008 – 690 likely voters

Tennessee
60% – Sen. Lamar Alexander (R)
30% – Bob Tuke (D)
10% – Undecided
Ayres, McHenry & Associates Republican poll conducted August 10 – 12, 2008 – 500 registered voters

Texas
48% – Sen. John Cornyn (R)
37% – Rick Noriega (D)
16% – Undecided
Rasmussen conducted August 21, 2008 – 500 likely voters

Virginia
61% – ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D)
29% – ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)
10% – Undecided, other
ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted September 18 -21, 2008 – 857 registered voters